Hurricane Helene

[mcheer23]

0/30 as of now, expect odds to continue to rise

[biggerbyte]

For sure. I have a feeling this thread is going to get plenty of use.

[Ptarmigan]

Forecast models for this area of low pressure.

[Pas_Bon]

Unsurprisingly, the models have all shifted back to the Florida panhandle and/or north central Gulf Coast. Helene’s flirtation with us was brief.

[biggerbyte]

The only good tropical system is a dead one. Flip flopping is to be expected. It flipped yesterday from the day before. Now it's flipping again. I don't see how Florida could get this one with the possible upcoming pattern. North Central Gulf was always an option. Let's be careful about counting our chickens just yet.

[dp6]

The only good tropical system is a dead one.

Amen! Watering a lawn is a whole lot cheaper than repairing roof damage.

[DoctorMu]

Euro has LA coast, GFS is leaning toward TAmpa.

CMC suggesting LATX. We might get a little rain out of it...mustl east of I-45. We're 9 days out.

[Stratton20]

GFS is lost on an island, its not handing this well at all, its doing weird stuff in the pacific , spinning up a random major hurricane in 36 hours which shears future heline, not happening

[biggerbyte]

Agreed..The GFS is super whacked right now.

[Ptarmigan]

EURO Forecast


GFS Forecast

[Stratton20]

CPC has all of se texas under a slight risk of heavy rains and high winds next week, they must think texas is in play now

[sambucol]

CPC has all of se texas under a slight risk of heavy rains and high winds next week, they must think texas is in play now

Rain is good. We are watching this one closely.

[tireman4]

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor the
Northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico as an area
of low pressure could develop by the early to middle part of next
week. Gradual development of this system is possible and could
result in the development of a tropical depression by late next
week as it moves slowly northward or northwestward into the
southern Gulf of Mexico. The NHC currently has a 50% (medium)
probability of formation over the next 7 days. This system has not
yet developed, so it is still far too early to determine it`s
track, intensity, or any specific impacts from it. Don`t put too
much stock into any single deterministic model runs. Please
continue to monitor the latest forecasts and updates from the NHC
at www.hurricanes.gov.

Batiste

[Pas_Bon]

CPC has all of se texas under a slight risk of heavy rains and high winds next week, they must think texas is in play now

I think it’ll be a setup similar to Francine. Still way too early. I still very much doubt we will see a landfall anywhere near Galveston.

[Cromagnum]

Roof is finally repaired. Now I just need to avoid damage until someone can buy this baby.

[biggerbyte]

If this turns out to be anything of substance the poor folks in Florida are in the bullseye today. The models kept insisting on high pressure protecting them this round. Of course at this juncture this could change, but the trend has been the Florida panhandle the last few runs.

[Cromagnum]

If this turns out to be anything of substance the poor folks in Florida are in the bullseye today. The models kept insisting on high pressure protecting them this round. Of course at this juncture this could change, but the trend has been the Florida panhandle the last few runs.

Better them than us.

[sambucol]

Is Texas in the clear as in there is no chance of this system coming our way? Done deal? I’m hoping so.

[Stratton20]

Yes texas is clear, in fact id say our season is officially over now

[sambucol]

Yes texas is clear, in fact id say our season is officially over now

Good. That’s what I was thinking.