Hurricane Helene

[srainhoutx]

My area is in the highest rainfall totals for Helene. Mountains and heavy rainfall lead to catastrophic flash flooding and strong gusty winds near TS strength will certainly lead to many downed trees and widespread power outages.

[Cpv17]

My area is in the highest rainfall totals for Helene. Mountains and heavy rainfall lead to catastrophic flash flooding and strong gusty winds near TS strength will certainly lead to many downed trees and widespread power outages.

Interesting times ahead for you, sir.

[DoctorMu]

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[DoctorMu]

My area is in the highest rainfall totals for Helene. Mountains and heavy rainfall lead to catastrophic flash flooding and strong gusty winds near TS strength will certainly lead to many downed trees and widespread power outages.

Interesting times ahead for you, sir.

Mountains in north Georgia and the Carolinas are going to get pounded.

[DoctorMu]

Helene is successfully orking through a bit of shear. The front is visible, and past us now. We picked up a brief shower before the cell fell apart.

Maybe it is time to invest in cacti for landscaping.

[Ptarmigan]

Intensity forecast for Helene.


It has a Category 4 hurricane before landfall.



ICON has Helene with a central pressure of 951 millibars before landfall.

[Pas_Bon]

She’s going to undergo RI overnight and tomorrow and I am honestly worried sick about what will happe .

[DoctorMu]

Intensity forecast for Helene.


It has a Category 4 hurricane before landfall.



ICON has Helene with a central pressure of 951 millibars before landfall.

It's also going to be huge. A deviation of just 50 miles to the east would be devastating.

[biggerbyte]

Tomorrow will be very telling. Right now it looks to hit major status right before landfall. We will see about that. This is a change from previous suggestions of being a major long before.

[tireman4]

Read on blog or Reader
Site logo image The Eyewall
Helene likely to become a hurricane today, delivering complex, damaging impacts for Florida and much of the Southeast
By Matt Lanza on September 25, 2024

What's changed since yesterday
Helene's forecast intensity as it approaches Florida has been increased a bit, with risk for further increase in the intensity forecast today. Folks between Port St. Joe and Cedar Key should be preparing for major hurricane impacts.
Hurricane Warnings extend into Georgia, a good bit beyond Valdosta. Tropical Storm Warnings now cover virtually the entire Florida Peninsula. Tropical Storm Watches extend into central Georgia and much of southeastern South Carolina.
Helene's track and surge forecast is relatively unchanged.
The interior rainfall forecast has escalated, and there is growing risk of a potentially damaging, catastrophic flash flooding event from northeast Georgia into western North Carolina, including Asheville.

Helene's forecast to come ashore near Apalachee Bay as a major hurricane.
Not a whole lot has changed since yesterday. It's nice to have a consistent forecast, but this is certainly turning into quite a serious situation for the eastern Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Again, the minimum you should expect right now is an Idalia-type impact. For many, if not most places between Apalachee Bay and Tampa, this will probably be a worse impact than Idalia. Current surge forecasts continue to suggest impacts at or above Idalia. This surge forecast is virtually unchanged from 12 hours ago.


Potential max storm surge forecasts are as bad or worse than Idalia and unchanged since yesterday.
There's honestly not a whole lot that needs to be said here with respect to the Florida coast between Cedar Key and Apalachee Bay: This has a decent chance to be worse than Idalia was and you should be closely following the advice of local officials.

The track forecast isn't entirely locked down, but it's close to it right now. There are still a handful of model data points suggesting a track slightly farther east than currently shown by the majority of tropical models and the official NHC forecast. This won't hit Tampa directly, but a track closer to Cedar Key or Steinhatchee is possible, a Nature Coast/Big Bend hit more than an Apalachee Bay hit. This is why we encourage everyone from Port St. Joe to Homosassa or Clearwater to prepare for a significant hurricane hit, be it via surge, wind, or both.


Hurricane force winds are expected to extend deep into Georgia, perhaps north of Tifton and near Albany. Tropical storm force winds will extend possibly into Metro Atlanta and much of South Carolina.
It's also important to note how deep into Georgia hurricane-force winds are expected to go. That takes them close to Albany, GA and about halfway to Macon. Tropical storm force winds are expected to extend north of Macon to metro Atlanta and into South Carolina. This will almost certainly cause widespread power outages, and folks should be prepared to be without power for at least a few days.

Here is a list of major cities and their maximum wind gust forecasts from the NWS Point and Click forecasts as of Wednesday morning. These are likely to change:

Florida
Tallahassee: 63 mph
Cedar Key: 80 mph
Apalachicola: 77 mph
Panama City: 54 mph
Clearwater: 60 mph
Tampa: 59 mph
Sarasota: 72 mph
Fort Myers: 57 mph
Naples: 56 mph
Orlando: 49 mph
Jacksonville: 63 mph
Gainesville: 56 mph
Key West: 44 mph

Elsewhere
Valdosta: 57 mph
Albany, GA: 68 mph
Macon: 92 mph
Atlanta: 56 mph
Savannah: 39 mph
Athens: 75 mph
Augusta: 46 mph
Charleston: 37 mph
Columbia: 41 mph
Greenville: 48 mph
Spartanburg: 43 mph
Charlotte: 41 mph
Asheville: 51 mph

A major, potentially catastrophic flooding event possible in the Appalachians
I want to focus on one element of this storm that is now coming into focus and becoming very serious: The risk of significant, possibly catastrophic flash flooding in the Appalachians from north Georgia into North Carolina.


Widespread flash flooding is expected in north Florida and Georgia, but a major, potentially catastrophic flood event is becoming more plausible from northeast Georgia into the western North Carolina mountains, where over a foot of rain is now possible.
A high risk of flooding has been issued for some of those areas by the Weather Prediction Center, which historically has correlated to extensive, significant damage.


A high risk (level 4/4) of flash flooding exists tomorrow north of Metro Atlanta into much of western North Carolina and portions of upstate South Carolina.
This is a historically favorable setup for major rainfall in this region, and there's no reason to believe this forecast is incorrect. So for anyone in those affected areas and even in the red moderate risk areas surrounding the high risk, it is important to be prepared to take immediate action in the case of flooding or landslides. Please heed the advice of local officials. It is possible that the damage and problems from the inland flooding will be equally as bad as the surge issues at the coast.

Helene is going to be a complex, very difficult storm with multiple different concerns along the way. We'll keep you posted as best we can through the event, but please also stick with trusted local sources for the latest and most relevant information for your neighborhood. We'll update this post through the day.

[Rip76]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...HELENE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS,
AND FLOODING RAINS TO A LARGE PORTION OF FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 86.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 500 MI...810 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

[DoctorMu]

The NHS had Helene as major hurricane on the cone yesterday. The cone and predicted path are similar, slightly westward shift. It's making a bullseye for the Florida State campus. As a large storm moving fast, strength could be felt well inland. Downed trees and power outages could be an impact 100s of miles inland.

[Pas_Bon]

Tomorrow will be very telling. Right now it looks to hit major status right before landfall. We will see about that. This is a change from previous suggestions of being a major long before.

I'm predicting she becomes a Major for the 10pm NHC update tonight (9/25/2024).

[biggerbyte]

Well we've gone back to a strong potential for major status well offshore. Helene is determined and defiant. All of that shear yesterday and now here we are again. Conditions otherwise were/are prime for RI. I hope folks in Florida stay tuned in daily for forecast changes..When it comes to Tropical systems today's outlook might not be tomorrow. Some folks tend to get complacent.

[DoctorMu]

Helene is officially a hurricane. She's going to rev up quickly.

[tireman4]

790
WTNT34 KNHC 251751
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
100 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...HELENE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM STORM SURGE AND
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 86.4W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM NNE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Indian Pass southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico including Cozumel

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* Flamingo northward to South Santee River
* Lake Okeechobee
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of South Santee River to Little River Inlet

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Additional watches or warnings may be required later today or
tonight.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located
near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 86.4 West. Helene is moving
toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the
north and north-northeast with an increase in forward speed is
expected later today through Thursday, bringing the center of Helene
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and to the Florida Big Bend coast
by Thursday evening. After landfall, Helene is expected to slow
down and turn toward the northwest over the southeastern United
States Friday and Saturday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 80 mph (130 km/h) with
higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to
be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast
Thursday evening. Weakening is expected after landfall, but
Helene's fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds,
especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the
southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of
the southern Appalachians.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275
miles (445 km). A commercial fishing vessel located near Isla
Mujeres, Mexico, recently reported a wind of 63 mph (102 km/h).

Dropsonde data indicate that the minimum central pressure has been
relatively steady during the past few hours and is estimated to be
980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Carrabelle, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...12-18 ft
Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...8-12 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-9 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along
the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane
warning area late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions
beginning Thursday morning. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in southern Florida later today and will spread northward
across the rest of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina through
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area in South Carolina beginning on Thursday.

Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are expected in the
hurricane warning area in Mexico during the next several hours.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in Cuba,
and hurricane conditions are possible for the western portion of
Cuba today.

RAINFALL: Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
4 to 8 inches over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the
northeast Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated totals around 12 inches.
This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding. A 24-hour
rainfall total of 8.60 inches (218.4 mm) was recently reported in
Embalse Herradura, Pinar del Rio, Cuba, by the Meteorological
Service of Cuba.

Over the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern Appalachians, Helene
is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches
with isolated totals around 15 inches. This rainfall will likely
result in areas of considerable flash and urban flooding, with areas
of significant river flooding. Landslides are possible in areas of
steep terrain in the southern Appalachians.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk graphic at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur tonight over parts of the
Florida Peninsula and southern Alabama. The risk of tornadoes will
increase on Thursday, expanding northward across Florida into parts
of Georgia and South Carolina.

SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of
Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of
days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida
and the northeastern Gulf Coast later today and Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$

[tireman4]

Hurricane Helene

[Pas_Bon]

That wind field is - and is going to be - massive

[Pas_Bon]

Y'all, I have a sick, sinking feeling.
To quote Han Solo....."I've got a bad feeling about this." (c. a long, long time ago)

[srainhoutx]

This is something you don't see very often. All of the Counties in NE GA, Western SC and Western NC are under a Tropical Storm Watch.