000
WTNT34 KNHC 252056
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
400 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
...HELENE STRENGTHENING...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM STORM SURGE AND
DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND COAST SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION TODAY...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 86.6W
ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 505 MI...815 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Storm Surge Watch east of Mexico Beach to Indian Pass has been
upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning.
The Tropical Storm Watch north of South Santee River to Little
River Inlet has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach
* Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico including Cozumel
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee
* Rio Lagartos to Cabo Catoche, Mexico
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located
near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 86.6 West. Helene is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward or
north-northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected
during the next 36 hours. On the forecast track, Helene will move
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Thursday and cross
the Florida Big Bend coast Thursday evening. After landfall,
Helene is expected to turn northwestward and slow down over the
Tennessee Valley on Friday and Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Helene is expected to be a
major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big Bend coast Thursday
evening. Weakening is expected after landfall, but Helene's fast
forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds, especially in
gusts, to penetrate well inland across the southeastern United
States, including over the higher terrain of the southern
Appalachians.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles
(555 km).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL...15-20 ft
Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...10-15 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
East of Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above
ground level in areas of onshore winds within the warning area along
the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane
warning area late Thursday, with tropical storm conditions
beginning Thursday morning. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in southern Florida later this evening and will spread
northward across the rest of Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina
through Thursday night.
Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are expected in the
hurricane warning area in Mexico during the next several hours.
Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the warning area in Cuba,
and hurricane conditions are possible for the western portion of
Cuba this evening.
RAINFALL: Hurricane Helene is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands
and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated totals around 12
inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding.
Over portions of the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern
Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 6 to 12 inches with isolated totals around 18 inches. This
rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant
river flooding. Landslides are possible in steep terrain across the
southern Appalachians.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur tonight over parts of the
Florida Peninsula and southern Alabama. The risk of tornadoes will
increase on Thursday, expanding northward across Florida into parts
of Georgia and South Carolina.
SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the southern coast of
Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of
days. Swells will spread northward toward the west coast of Florida
and the northeastern Gulf Coast later today and Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Berg
Hurricane Helene
Key West already reporting sustained winds to Tropical Storm force.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5169
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Read on blog or Reader
Site logo image The Eyewall
Category 2 Hurricane Helene continuing to grow with little forecast change this morning
By Matt Lanza on September 26, 2024
What's changed since last night
No meaningful change to the forecast intensity, track, or impacts into Florida.
A slight nudge east in the track in North Georgia.
Helene is now a category 2 storm
Larger storms tend to be a little more unruly in terms of how they organize. Helene meets that bill today. Reports of "concentric eyewalls" in the storm, almost as if the system is trying to figure out how large it wants to be.
Helene continues to evolve into the storm it will come ashore as, likely now a category 2 hurricane.
We've seen bursts of thunderstorms wax and wane near the center, but we're currently in an uptick. Recent reports from NOAA flights into Helene suggest surface winds have increased to close to 100 mph. We'll see what the new advisory shows just after I publish this. (Editor's note: It has. Now a cat 2 with 100 mph winds). Basically, Helene continues to intensify, and there's no reason to think the dire forecasts we and everyone else discussed yesterday have changed.
The surge forecast is basically unchanged from last night, with a 15 to 20 foot, unsurvivable peak surge in Apalachee Bay and the Big Bend.
The storm surge forecast is virtually unchanged from last night, with catastrophic surge expected between Apalachicola and the Anclote River.
Tampa Bay continues to see a 5 to 8 foot surge, which will be some of the worst surge experienced in modern times there.
The track of Helene is virtually unchanged as well. The most likely landfall point is between Apalachicola and Steinhatchee right now. There remains at least some risk that wobbling of the track could force it closer to Cedar Key in an extreme scenario. I would not rule that out, but I would be absolutely preparing for the worst between Apalachicola and Homosassa and for very bad outcomes south of there to Tampa Bay. Landfall should occur late this evening.
A Tornado Watch is in effect for most of the Florida Peninsula today.
A Tornado Watch is in effect for most of the Peninsula through 8 PM ET. Further watches could be required north of there into southeast Georgia later.
That watch goes til 8 PM ET, and additional watches could be required to the north later today. Isolated tornadoes seem to already be a bit of a threat and this should escalate some through the day and into tonight.
The heavy rainfall threat continues to look very, very bad for both areas near landfall and interior locations in the Appalachians in North Carolina, Upstate South Carolina, and North Georgia.
High risk of flash flooding (level 4/4) north of Atlanta into Asheville, NC today, as well as in southwest Georgia and near where Helene comes ashore in the Panhandle.
After heavy rain yesterday, we continue to see the risk for 10 to 16 inches of additional rainfall with the storm today, tonight, and early Friday before things slowly ease up a little tomorrow. Catastrophic interior flooding, especially in that high risk area northeast of Atlanta remains a high likelihood.
Real quick tangent here. One of the reasons Helene is going to be such a monster storm as it comes inland is because it's essentially "phasing" with a massive upper cutoff low over the mid-South. A cutoff low is a storm system in the upper atmosphere that has essentially cut itself off from the jet stream. When this happens, the system tends to just meander around until something changes to kick it out. In this situation, you can see the animation below with the big upper low north of Memphis, and then Helene surging in on the right side of the image.
The merger between a baroclinic system (cutoff low) and a hurricane over Tennessee and Kentucky allows for Helene's winds to survive longer than they otherwise would.
This complex merger is something we don't usually think of with a hurricane. Hurricane Sandy was a good example of this happening with tropical systems and showed why its winds and size caused so much damage despite "not technically being a hurricane" when it hit New Jersey in 2012. The whole process extends the life cycle of the winds of the hurricane and it's why tropical storm warnings extend so far inland. The rain element is related as well. With Helene being pulled northeast, then suddenly hooking back northwest "into" the upper low, it will continue to produce rain on the windward side of the Appalachians, leading to additional rain tomorrow and further flooding.
Anyway, that explains some of what's going on behind the scenes with Helene after it moves inland. We'll update this post with any notable changes throughout the day.
Site logo image The Eyewall
Category 2 Hurricane Helene continuing to grow with little forecast change this morning
By Matt Lanza on September 26, 2024
What's changed since last night
No meaningful change to the forecast intensity, track, or impacts into Florida.
A slight nudge east in the track in North Georgia.
Helene is now a category 2 storm
Larger storms tend to be a little more unruly in terms of how they organize. Helene meets that bill today. Reports of "concentric eyewalls" in the storm, almost as if the system is trying to figure out how large it wants to be.
Helene continues to evolve into the storm it will come ashore as, likely now a category 2 hurricane.
We've seen bursts of thunderstorms wax and wane near the center, but we're currently in an uptick. Recent reports from NOAA flights into Helene suggest surface winds have increased to close to 100 mph. We'll see what the new advisory shows just after I publish this. (Editor's note: It has. Now a cat 2 with 100 mph winds). Basically, Helene continues to intensify, and there's no reason to think the dire forecasts we and everyone else discussed yesterday have changed.
The surge forecast is basically unchanged from last night, with a 15 to 20 foot, unsurvivable peak surge in Apalachee Bay and the Big Bend.
The storm surge forecast is virtually unchanged from last night, with catastrophic surge expected between Apalachicola and the Anclote River.
Tampa Bay continues to see a 5 to 8 foot surge, which will be some of the worst surge experienced in modern times there.
The track of Helene is virtually unchanged as well. The most likely landfall point is between Apalachicola and Steinhatchee right now. There remains at least some risk that wobbling of the track could force it closer to Cedar Key in an extreme scenario. I would not rule that out, but I would be absolutely preparing for the worst between Apalachicola and Homosassa and for very bad outcomes south of there to Tampa Bay. Landfall should occur late this evening.
A Tornado Watch is in effect for most of the Florida Peninsula today.
A Tornado Watch is in effect for most of the Peninsula through 8 PM ET. Further watches could be required north of there into southeast Georgia later.
That watch goes til 8 PM ET, and additional watches could be required to the north later today. Isolated tornadoes seem to already be a bit of a threat and this should escalate some through the day and into tonight.
The heavy rainfall threat continues to look very, very bad for both areas near landfall and interior locations in the Appalachians in North Carolina, Upstate South Carolina, and North Georgia.
High risk of flash flooding (level 4/4) north of Atlanta into Asheville, NC today, as well as in southwest Georgia and near where Helene comes ashore in the Panhandle.
After heavy rain yesterday, we continue to see the risk for 10 to 16 inches of additional rainfall with the storm today, tonight, and early Friday before things slowly ease up a little tomorrow. Catastrophic interior flooding, especially in that high risk area northeast of Atlanta remains a high likelihood.
Real quick tangent here. One of the reasons Helene is going to be such a monster storm as it comes inland is because it's essentially "phasing" with a massive upper cutoff low over the mid-South. A cutoff low is a storm system in the upper atmosphere that has essentially cut itself off from the jet stream. When this happens, the system tends to just meander around until something changes to kick it out. In this situation, you can see the animation below with the big upper low north of Memphis, and then Helene surging in on the right side of the image.
The merger between a baroclinic system (cutoff low) and a hurricane over Tennessee and Kentucky allows for Helene's winds to survive longer than they otherwise would.
This complex merger is something we don't usually think of with a hurricane. Hurricane Sandy was a good example of this happening with tropical systems and showed why its winds and size caused so much damage despite "not technically being a hurricane" when it hit New Jersey in 2012. The whole process extends the life cycle of the winds of the hurricane and it's why tropical storm warnings extend so far inland. The rain element is related as well. With Helene being pulled northeast, then suddenly hooking back northwest "into" the upper low, it will continue to produce rain on the windward side of the Appalachians, leading to additional rain tomorrow and further flooding.
Anyway, that explains some of what's going on behind the scenes with Helene after it moves inland. We'll update this post with any notable changes throughout the day.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5169
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
WTNT34 KNHC 261139
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
700 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024
...HELENE BECOMES A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE WITH SIGNIFICANT
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 85.9W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located
near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 85.9 West. Helene is moving
toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continued with a significant increase in
forward speed during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track,
Helene will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today and cross
the Florida Big Bend coast this evening or early Friday morning.
After landfall, Helene is expected to turn northwestward and slow
down over the Tennessee Valley on Friday and Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Helene
is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big
Bend coast this evening. Weakening is expected after landfall, but
Helene's fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds,
especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the
southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the
southern Appalachians.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345
miles (555 km). The Key West Naval Air Station recently reported
sustained winds of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a wind gust of 55 mph (89
km/h). An observation in Sand Key recently reported sustained
winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 58 mph (93 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 960 mb
(28.35 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL...15-20 ft
Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...10-15 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
East of Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane
warning area late today. Tropical storm conditions have
already begun in the Florida Keys and portions of south
Florida, and these conditions are expected to spread northward
across the state and into Georgia and South Carolina through
tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the warning
area in western Cuba during the next few hours.
RAINFALL: Hurricane Helene is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands
and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated totals around 12
inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding.
Over portions of the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern
Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 6 to 12 inches with isolated totals around 18 inches. This
rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant
river flooding. Numerous landslides are expected in steep terrain
across the southern Appalachians.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
TORNADOES: The risk for several tornadoes will gradually increase
today through tonight. The greatest threat is expected from parts of
northern Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low
Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina.
SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect much of Florida and
the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas during the next couple of
days. Swells will also continue across portions of Cuba and the
Yucatan Peninsula through tonight. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
WTNT34 KNHC 261139
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
700 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024
...HELENE BECOMES A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE WITH SIGNIFICANT
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...
SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 85.9W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee
* Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located
near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 85.9 West. Helene is moving
toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continued with a significant increase in
forward speed during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track,
Helene will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico today and cross
the Florida Big Bend coast this evening or early Friday morning.
After landfall, Helene is expected to turn northwestward and slow
down over the Tennessee Valley on Friday and Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Helene
is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big
Bend coast this evening. Weakening is expected after landfall, but
Helene's fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds,
especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the
southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the
southern Appalachians.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345
miles (555 km). The Key West Naval Air Station recently reported
sustained winds of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a wind gust of 55 mph (89
km/h). An observation in Sand Key recently reported sustained
winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 58 mph (93 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 960 mb
(28.35 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL...15-20 ft
Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...10-15 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
East of Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above
normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern
coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane
warning area late today. Tropical storm conditions have
already begun in the Florida Keys and portions of south
Florida, and these conditions are expected to spread northward
across the state and into Georgia and South Carolina through
tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the warning
area in western Cuba during the next few hours.
RAINFALL: Hurricane Helene is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba, the Cayman Islands
and the northeast Yucatan Peninsula, with isolated totals around 12
inches. This rainfall brings a risk of considerable flooding.
Over portions of the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern
Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 6 to 12 inches with isolated totals around 18 inches. This
rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant
river flooding. Numerous landslides are expected in steep terrain
across the southern Appalachians.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
TORNADOES: The risk for several tornadoes will gradually increase
today through tonight. The greatest threat is expected from parts of
northern Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low
Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina.
SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect much of Florida and
the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas during the next couple of
days. Swells will also continue across portions of Cuba and the
Yucatan Peninsula through tonight. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5169
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Reed Timmer, PhD
@ReedTimmerUSA
UPDATE: Storm surge has already begun 10-12 hours before landfall of Hurricane Helene across the Florida Big Bend region. Concerns this morning are coastal flooding, flash flooding, and a #tornado threat. We will be going live this afternoon for intercept. Pressure down to 960 mb with rapid intensification
@ReedTimmerUSA
UPDATE: Storm surge has already begun 10-12 hours before landfall of Hurricane Helene across the Florida Big Bend region. Concerns this morning are coastal flooding, flash flooding, and a #tornado threat. We will be going live this afternoon for intercept. Pressure down to 960 mb with rapid intensification
Reed nailed the Beryl turn north and forecast and he's been right about Helene when some mets and amateurs through Helene would be thwarted by shear. Helene is on the verge of CAT3 status and will likely be CAT 4 on landfall. Her track toward Panacea-Apalachicola and Tallahassee is unchanged.tireman4 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 26, 2024 9:54 am Reed Timmer, PhD
@ReedTimmerUSA
UPDATE: Storm surge has already begun 10-12 hours before landfall of Hurricane Helene across the Florida Big Bend region. Concerns this morning are coastal flooding, flash flooding, and a #tornado threat. We will be going live this afternoon for intercept. Pressure down to 960 mb with rapid intensification
On track:
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Thar she blows!
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Georgia and the Carolinas should get a ton of rain once this thing blows in and reverses course to the southwest.
The hurricane warning for Helene extends all the way up to Macon.srainhoutx wrote: ↑Wed Sep 25, 2024 3:03 pm This is something you don't see very often. All of the Counties in NE GA, Western SC and Western NC are under a Tropical Storm Watch.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5169
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
WTNT34 KNHC 261747
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
100 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024
...HELENE ALMOST A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 85.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Cuba has discontinued the tropical storm warning
for the island.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located
near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 85.0 West. Helene is moving
toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A significant
increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. On
the forecast track, Helene will make landfall in the Florida Big
Bend region this evening. After landfall, Helene is expected to turn
northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley on Friday and
Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Helene
is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big
Bend coast this evening. Weakening is expected after landfall, but
Helene's fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds,
especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the
southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the
southern Appalachians.
Helene is a very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km).
A weather station in Tarpon Point recently reported a sustained
wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h).
The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters is 959 mb (28.32 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL...15-20 ft
Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...10-15 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
East of Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane
warning area late today. Tropical storm conditions have
occurring in the Florida Keys and portions of southern and
southwestern Florida, and these conditions are expected to spread
northward across the tropical storm warning areas in the
southeastern U.S. through early Friday. Strong, damaging winds,
especially in gusts, will likely penetrate as far inland as the
higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.
RAINFALL: Hurricane Helene is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba. This rainfall
brings a risk of considerable flooding.
Over portions of the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern
Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals around 20 inches. This
rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant
river flooding. Numerous significant landslides are expected in
steep terrain across the southern Appalachians.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the
WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.
TORNADOES: The risk for several tornadoes will gradually increase
today through tonight. The greatest threat is expected from parts of
northern Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low
Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina.
SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect much of Florida and
the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas during the next couple of
days. Swells will also continue across portions of Cuba and the
Yucatan Peninsula through tonight. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
Hourly position and intensity information will be provided in
Tropical Cyclone Updates beginning at 300 PM EDT/200 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
WTNT34 KNHC 261747
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Hurricane Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
100 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024
...HELENE ALMOST A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...
SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 85.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Cuba has discontinued the tropical storm warning
for the island.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mexico Beach eastward and southward to Flamingo
* Tampa Bay
* Charlotte Harbor
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Anclote River to Mexico Beach
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys, including the Dry Tortugas
* Flamingo to Anclote River, including Tampa Bay
* West of Mexico Beach to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line
* Flamingo northward to Little River Inlet
* Lake Okeechobee
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Helene was located
near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 85.0 West. Helene is moving
toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A significant
increase in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. On
the forecast track, Helene will make landfall in the Florida Big
Bend region this evening. After landfall, Helene is expected to turn
northwestward and slow down over the Tennessee Valley on Friday and
Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Helene
is expected to be a major hurricane when it reaches the Florida Big
Bend coast this evening. Weakening is expected after landfall, but
Helene's fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds,
especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the
southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the
southern Appalachians.
Helene is a very large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km).
A weather station in Tarpon Point recently reported a sustained
wind of 41 mph (67 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h).
The minimum central pressure based on data from the Air Force
Hurricane Hunters is 959 mb (28.32 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
STORM SURGE: The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded
by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Carrabelle, FL to Suwannee River, FL...15-20 ft
Apalachicola, FL to Carrabelle, FL...10-15 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...10-15 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...8-12 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Apalachicola, FL...6-10 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...5-8 ft
Tampa Bay...5-8 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...4-7 ft
East of Mexico Beach, FL to Indian Pass, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft
Charlotte Harbor...3-5 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the U.S. hurricane
warning area late today. Tropical storm conditions have
occurring in the Florida Keys and portions of southern and
southwestern Florida, and these conditions are expected to spread
northward across the tropical storm warning areas in the
southeastern U.S. through early Friday. Strong, damaging winds,
especially in gusts, will likely penetrate as far inland as the
higher terrain of the southern Appalachians.
RAINFALL: Hurricane Helene is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over western Cuba. This rainfall
brings a risk of considerable flooding.
Over portions of the Southeastern U.S. into the Southern
Appalachians, Helene is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated totals around 20 inches. This
rainfall will likely result in catastrophic and potentially
life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with significant
river flooding. Numerous significant landslides are expected in
steep terrain across the southern Appalachians.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the
WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html.
TORNADOES: The risk for several tornadoes will gradually increase
today through tonight. The greatest threat is expected from parts of
northern Florida into southeast Georgia, the Midlands and Low
Country of South Carolina, and southern North Carolina.
SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect much of Florida and
the coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas during the next couple of
days. Swells will also continue across portions of Cuba and the
Yucatan Peninsula through tonight. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
Hourly position and intensity information will be provided in
Tropical Cyclone Updates beginning at 300 PM EDT/200 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Projected CAT4 won't pussyfoot around...
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Prayers for all those in the path of Hurricane Helene.
Tallahassee will like experience hurricane force winds for hours.
The downed tree and power loss impact in FL, GA, SC, NC could be catastrophic.
Sustained tropical storm force winds to north of ATL
The downed tree and power loss impact in FL, GA, SC, NC could be catastrophic.
Sustained tropical storm force winds to north of ATL
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How many in the moderate to high risk of flooding? 30M?
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Dropsondes 94 MINUTES apart......959mb->952mb.
Holy Hell
Godspeed to those who stayed
This, according to Jeff Lindner
Holy Hell
Godspeed to those who stayed
This, according to Jeff Lindner
Last edited by Pas_Bon on Thu Sep 26, 2024 4:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Wow!