Hurricane Helene
Officially Cat 4 as of 620 EDT update. 130mph sustained.
CAT4 and wobbling east.That northern eyewall is going to be a ***** coming ashore. Hurricane force wind could go well inland, although the tree-flattening gusts might go over a lot of swampland.
Reed Timmer will be in the eyewall on Steinhatchee, FL at landfall in about an hour.
938 mb
Keaton Beach is near ground zero. The northern eyewell is making contact with the shore.
I saw a report of 175 mph aloft.
Keaton Beach is near ground zero. The northern eyewell is making contact with the shore.
I saw a report of 175 mph aloft.
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tireman4
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Now Tropical Storm Helene
Ex-Hurricane, now Tropical Storm Helene is causing a historic flood event this morning all across the Southeast. I count no less than 10 flash flood emergencies as I write this between Georgia and the Carolinas. These include Atlanta, Charlotte, and Asheville.
Data from NSSL's MRMS shows significant flooding risk in Metro Atlanta this morning, hence the flash flood emergencies there.
Severe flooding is also occurring in Upstate South Carolina and areas from Charlotte west into the mountains in North Carolina, including Asheville.
I don't recall the last time I saw 10 flash flood emergencies at once. Suffice to say it can probably be counted on one hand or less.
A "high" risk (level 4/4) for flooding remains in effect today in western North Carolina. It's surrounded by a moderate risk. all the way into extreme southern West Virginia. A second area of moderate risk exists just west of Nashville. High risks correlate strongly to the worst flooding outcomes in terms of damage and loss of life, so much like yesterday and overnight, this will be a rough stretch.
A high risk (level 4/4) for flooding is posted for the North Carolina mountains, with moderate risks around that into the Virginias and a second moderate risk just west of Nashville. (Pivotal Weather)
Conditions should improve in Atlanta today, but the damage is done. Asheville remains at risk, as do locations up through Roanoke through Virginia.
Additional rainfall of 4 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts should be expected in the North Carolina mountains and in portions of Tennessee.
Meanwhile, winds continue gusting in excess of 50 and 60 mph all across South Carolina with even some 70 mph gusts too in North Carolina. Power outages are up to about 3.5 million between Florida and Virginia. Those numbers may continue to increase a bit more. The hope is that the low pressure center of Helene will slowly lose identity and weaken by later today and tonight. Flooding risks should drop off heading into tomorrow, though isolated flooding will be possible north and west of the hardest hit areas, perhaps into southern Indiana or Kentucky.
I have not had time to dig through reports from the Florida coast, but I know that it will take time for the worst surge reports to emerge. It always does. And we will almost certainly see the NHC forecasts of 15 to 20 feet verify. The Tampa area broke all their surge records yesterday by a wide margin. This was far and away the worst modern storm to hit the northern west coast and Big Bend area of Florida. More on this to come.
Other news and notes
We've neglected other things this week for obvious reasons. Here's just a quick rundown of what else is happening. More to come on this.
Tropical Storm Isaac formed and was upgraded to a hurricane today. It is headed out to sea.
Isaac. (NOAA NHC)
Invest 98L, also in the deep, open Atlantic has a good chance to be upgraded to a depression or Tropical Storm Joyce later today. It is no threat to land.
Invest 98L could become a depression or tropical storm today.
The NHC dropped an area of interest yesterday in the Caribbean in a very similar spot to where Helene was conceived. It has a 30% chance of developing over the next week.
A 30% chance of development exists in the northwest Caribbean or near the Yucatan -- again over the next week.
This Caribbean or Yucatan area does not currently have the same degree of model support we saw at this point from Helene for something high-end. However, there is a substantial signal for something in the region next week. We'll have more on this later in the weekend. For now, don't worry about it but check back in for updates.
We will post again later today with an update on Helene and anything else of note.
Ex-Hurricane, now Tropical Storm Helene is causing a historic flood event this morning all across the Southeast. I count no less than 10 flash flood emergencies as I write this between Georgia and the Carolinas. These include Atlanta, Charlotte, and Asheville.
Data from NSSL's MRMS shows significant flooding risk in Metro Atlanta this morning, hence the flash flood emergencies there.
Severe flooding is also occurring in Upstate South Carolina and areas from Charlotte west into the mountains in North Carolina, including Asheville.
I don't recall the last time I saw 10 flash flood emergencies at once. Suffice to say it can probably be counted on one hand or less.
A "high" risk (level 4/4) for flooding remains in effect today in western North Carolina. It's surrounded by a moderate risk. all the way into extreme southern West Virginia. A second area of moderate risk exists just west of Nashville. High risks correlate strongly to the worst flooding outcomes in terms of damage and loss of life, so much like yesterday and overnight, this will be a rough stretch.
A high risk (level 4/4) for flooding is posted for the North Carolina mountains, with moderate risks around that into the Virginias and a second moderate risk just west of Nashville. (Pivotal Weather)
Conditions should improve in Atlanta today, but the damage is done. Asheville remains at risk, as do locations up through Roanoke through Virginia.
Additional rainfall of 4 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts should be expected in the North Carolina mountains and in portions of Tennessee.
Meanwhile, winds continue gusting in excess of 50 and 60 mph all across South Carolina with even some 70 mph gusts too in North Carolina. Power outages are up to about 3.5 million between Florida and Virginia. Those numbers may continue to increase a bit more. The hope is that the low pressure center of Helene will slowly lose identity and weaken by later today and tonight. Flooding risks should drop off heading into tomorrow, though isolated flooding will be possible north and west of the hardest hit areas, perhaps into southern Indiana or Kentucky.
I have not had time to dig through reports from the Florida coast, but I know that it will take time for the worst surge reports to emerge. It always does. And we will almost certainly see the NHC forecasts of 15 to 20 feet verify. The Tampa area broke all their surge records yesterday by a wide margin. This was far and away the worst modern storm to hit the northern west coast and Big Bend area of Florida. More on this to come.
Other news and notes
We've neglected other things this week for obvious reasons. Here's just a quick rundown of what else is happening. More to come on this.
Tropical Storm Isaac formed and was upgraded to a hurricane today. It is headed out to sea.
Isaac. (NOAA NHC)
Invest 98L, also in the deep, open Atlantic has a good chance to be upgraded to a depression or Tropical Storm Joyce later today. It is no threat to land.
Invest 98L could become a depression or tropical storm today.
The NHC dropped an area of interest yesterday in the Caribbean in a very similar spot to where Helene was conceived. It has a 30% chance of developing over the next week.
A 30% chance of development exists in the northwest Caribbean or near the Yucatan -- again over the next week.
This Caribbean or Yucatan area does not currently have the same degree of model support we saw at this point from Helene for something high-end. However, there is a substantial signal for something in the region next week. We'll have more on this later in the weekend. For now, don't worry about it but check back in for updates.
We will post again later today with an update on Helene and anything else of note.
Everything I can find says the storm surge in the Tampa-St. Pete area maxed out at just 6 to 8 feet. It's long been known that the area could see twice that high a storm surge in the right conditions. So many homes there have floor levels at only 5 to 8 feet above sea level. Sorry, but I can't seem to work up sympathy for people who bought homes sitting so irresponsibly low on the coast of hurricane country. The ones I feel for are those facing record flooding in the uplands and mountains of the southeast.
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tireman4
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The Liberty/App State Game has been cancelled.
Brett McMurphy
Liberty at App State game canceled due to severe impacts to App State, the town of Boone and surrounding areas caused by Hurricane Helene.
The game will not be rescheduled
Brett McMurphy
Liberty at App State game canceled due to severe impacts to App State, the town of Boone and surrounding areas caused by Hurricane Helene.
The game will not be rescheduled
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tireman4
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000
WTNT34 KNHC 271746
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024
...HELENE STILL PRODUCING HISTORIC AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.6N 84.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Helene
was located near latitude 36.6 North, longitude 84.6 West. Helene is
moving toward the north-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h). A slowdown
in forward speed is expected, and the depression is forecast to
stall over the Tennessee Valley tonight and through the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued slow weakening is expected, and
Helene is forecast to become extratropical later this afternoon.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 982 mb (29.00 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
STORM SURGE: Water levels will continue to recede along the Florida
Gulf Coast and portions of the southeast U.S. coast throughout the
day.
WIND: Gusts to tropical-storm-force are still occurring in portions
of the Appalachians and off the South Carolina coast, but they
should subside by this evening.
RAINFALL: Over portions of the Central and Southern Appalachians,
Helene is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches leading to total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with
isolated totals around 20 inches. This rainfall will result in
catastrophic and potentially life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, along with significant and record river flooding. Numerous
significant landslides are expected in steep terrain across the
Southern Appalachians.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the
WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html
TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today across eastern South
Carolina, central and eastern North Carolina, and southern Virginia.
SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the coasts of Georgia
and the Carolinas during the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
WTNT34 KNHC 271746
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 27 2024
...HELENE STILL PRODUCING HISTORIC AND CATASTROPHIC FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.6N 84.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Helene
was located near latitude 36.6 North, longitude 84.6 West. Helene is
moving toward the north-northwest near 28 mph (44 km/h). A slowdown
in forward speed is expected, and the depression is forecast to
stall over the Tennessee Valley tonight and through the weekend.
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued slow weakening is expected, and
Helene is forecast to become extratropical later this afternoon.
The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 982 mb (29.00 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Helene can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml
STORM SURGE: Water levels will continue to recede along the Florida
Gulf Coast and portions of the southeast U.S. coast throughout the
day.
WIND: Gusts to tropical-storm-force are still occurring in portions
of the Appalachians and off the South Carolina coast, but they
should subside by this evening.
RAINFALL: Over portions of the Central and Southern Appalachians,
Helene is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6
inches leading to total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with
isolated totals around 20 inches. This rainfall will result in
catastrophic and potentially life-threatening flash and urban
flooding, along with significant and record river flooding. Numerous
significant landslides are expected in steep terrain across the
Southern Appalachians.
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Helene, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and
the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.
For a list of rainfall observations (and wind reports) associated
this storm, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS4 with the
WMO header ACUS44 KWBC or at the following link:
www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc4.html
TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible today across eastern South
Carolina, central and eastern North Carolina, and southern Virginia.
SURF: Swells generated by Helene will affect the coasts of Georgia
and the Carolinas during the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Every person has a unique story. Many folks inherit property. Many folks are elderly and moving in retirement isn’t an easy thing. Seas are rising over time and that’s beyond any one individual’s control.dp6 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 27, 2024 10:24 am Everything I can find says the storm surge in the Tampa-St. Pete area maxed out at just 6 to 8 feet. It's long been known that the area could see twice that high a storm surge in the right conditions. So many homes there have floor levels at only 5 to 8 feet above sea level. Sorry, but I can't seem to work up sympathy for people who bought homes sitting so irresponsibly low on the coast of hurricane country. The ones I feel for are those facing record flooding in the uplands and mountains of the southeast.
I’m a Tampa native. I know a lot of people personally affected by this.
Today is hard.
This surge was an all-time record and there are properties all along the coast that have been in the same family for generations and never saw anything like this.
And you have no sympathy for them, yet you live in a state with the highest number of tornadoes?
Save your self-righteous judgmental comments for another time and some place else. Have some empathy!! You might be a better person for it.
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Stratton20
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dp6 yeah id probably go ahead and delete this comment, anyone who lives in a beach house along the gulf understands very clearly that it is a risk because of potential hurricane strikes, its not like tampa bay gets hit every year, it just unfortunately happened this year, or at least they got big impacts, have some sympathy, those folks lost everything, tampa is a great place to live, they deserve all the sympathy in the world right now
If I live in OK, I'd take a vacation from April 15 - May 15 every year and hope my property was still there when I returned. lol
40+ dead. Helene affected a large swath. Condolences and best wishes to those affected.
Has anyone checked up on SRain since the remnants of Helene moved out of North Carolina? According to his location, it appears the worst of the flash flooding and river flooding is occurring just to the east of his area.
Yeah, color me concerned.
Chimney Rock may have been wiped out. I'm looking for confirmation.
https://x.com/TheWapplehouse/status/1839800051121439196