January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[Andrew]

Thanks Katdaddy and keep them coming. I think Wxman is going to have to start believing now that we will get some sort of cold air. It may not be record breaking but is should be some of the coldest so far this year.

[weatherguy425]

I know it's days and days away and I know that the NWS tends to "taper down" temps as we get closer to these types of events. Though' I'm a little surprised that offices up north aren't biting more into this. Highs in the upper teens certainly isnt all that unusual for Kansas in January.

[TexasMetBlake]

Would somebody be kind enough to show a high resolution 12z euro. I hear it is 1070 mb but from the chart Srain posted earlier, I can't see the numbers clearly as they are all jumbled together.

[weatherguy425]

Veryyyyy good read!

FTW NWS...

BEYOND DAY 7...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A
MASSIVE ARCTIC INTRUSION INTO THE US NEXT WEEK AS AN ANOMALOUSLY
STRONG 500MB RIDGE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN ALASKA. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BUILD 500MB HEIGHTS TO NEAR 580DM OVER THIS REGION BY
MONDAY. DURING THIS TIME...CROSS POLAR FLOW WILL SET UP ALLOWING
EXTREMELY COLD AIR TO BUILD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN CANADA. THE LATEST
RUN OF THE ECMWF INDICATES A MASSIVE 1069MB SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OVER
WESTERN CANADA ON MONDAY...WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN ITS
00Z RUN AND STRONGER THAN THE 12Z GFS WHICH SHOWS A 1063MB HIGH.
THE FIRST SHOT OF SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO TEXAS ON
MONDAY BUT THE TRULY ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN FARTHER TO THE NORTH
AT THAT TIME. WHAT MAKES THIS SETUP SO CONCERNING IS NOT SIMPLY
THE MODEL OUTPUT BUT RATHER THE IMPACT THE BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE
OVER ALASKA WOULD HAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE CROSS POLAR FLOW TO
REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE EXTREMELY COLD AND DENSE AIR
OVER WESTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO
SLIDE SOUTH OVER MUCH OF THE US BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RAW
MODEL OUTPUT FROM THE ECMWF INDICATES HIGHS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IN
THE 20S BY WED/THU WHICH IS VERY CONCERNING. PROLONGED
TEMPERATURES THIS COLD WITH COLDER OVERNIGHT LOWS CAN BEGIN TO
HAVE SERIOUS IMPACTS ON SOUTHERN INFRASTRUCTURE SUCH AS PIPES.
WHILE THERE IS SOME INDICATION OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION AFTER THE
COLD AIR HAS ARRIVED...THE MAIN CONCERN AT THIS TIME IS WITH THE
TEMPERATURES. THIS SYSTEM BEARS CLOSE WATCHING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

[Andrew]

GFS continues to show a low tracking across SE Texas. Should relieve the drought some more...




Should be interesting to see if it continues to show as cold of weather as in the past runs.

[TexasMetBlake]

Andrew, there's no reason to believe it would just lose something as significant as this.

Interesting thought: The highest pressure ever observed in the USA was 1064 mb set at Miles City, MT on 12/24/1983. Currently, the GFS has a 1066 and the Euro has a 1070 mb . If those pressures verified, I would be scared to think what that would do to our temperatures here.

[Andrew]

Andrew, there's no reason to believe it would just lose something as significant as this.

Interesting thought: The highest pressure ever observed in the USA was 1064 mb set at Miles City, MT on 12/24/1983. Currently, the GFS has a 1066 and the Euro has a 1070 mb . If those pressures verified, I would be scared to think what that would do to our temperatures here.

Well I should clarify I meant to say AS COLD as what it has been showing....

[Andrew]

Well 18z is a little different and not as strong faster too:

18z



12z

[ejburas]

[texoz]

Andrew, there's no reason to believe it would just lose something as significant as this.

Interesting thought: The highest pressure ever observed in the USA was 1064 mb set at Miles City, MT on 12/24/1983. Currently, the GFS has a 1066 and the Euro has a 1070 mb . If those pressures verified, I would be scared to think what that would do to our temperatures here.

Would be very interesting if this comes to pass, especially since we had the lowest barometric reading (non-hurricane) on record in continental US less than 2 months ago.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... rynum=1674

[helloitsb]

18z not looking cool!

Hasn't the 18 been a wild card this season though? Lets just go with that

hopefully the 0z supports what we have been seeing!

[Andrew]

18z not looking cool!

Hasn't the 18 been a wild card this season though? Lets just go with that

hopefully the 0z supports what we have been seeing!

well 18z gets cold but not as cold. It is faster also. The thing that I am not understanding from the GFS is with such a strong high pressure to the north of us the cold air should be pushed a lot farther south. I think this is an error of the GFS at such long range and will be fixed as we get closer to the actual event. With a 1048 pressure to the north of us temps should be in the lower 20's not the lower 30's

[ronyan]

The 18z does not look like a -big- difference to me. Certainly not enough to matter at this range right?

[helloitsb]

btw Gene Norman mentioned something on the 5:00 show but saying a chance of sleet mixing in with rain, under promise over deliver? or not much confidence in this whole thing.

[ronyan]

btw Gene Norman mentioned something on the 5:00 show but saying a chance of sleet mixing in with rain, under promise over deliver? or not much confidence in this whole thing.

You should never have too much confidence in a long range forecast, especially if you're predicting wintry stuff in our area. He did say that it would be "cold cold air" though.

[sambucol]

btw Gene Norman mentioned something on the 5:00 show but saying a chance of sleet mixing in with rain, under promise over deliver? or not much confidence in this whole thing.

I saw that. He went on to say we would possibly see rain/sleet mix on Tuesday of next week. Isn't this a bit early to even mention the possibility of a wintry mix this many days away?

[TexasMetBlake]

Frank Billingsley on Channel 2 also mentioned the arctic air. Anybody watch 13?

The 18z is quite a bit weaker with the high (1048 vs 1066) but that's neither here nor there. There is going to be fluctuations between now and the event. The euro is showing a 1070 high. So there's no need to get depressed, yet.

[helloitsb]

btw Gene Norman mentioned something on the 5:00 show but saying a chance of sleet mixing in with rain, under promise over deliver? or not much confidence in this whole thing.

You should never have too much confidence in a long range forecast, especially if you're predicting wintry stuff in our area. He did say that it would be "cold cold air" though.

very true it is still 10 days out until the models are predicting this thing

[Andrew]

Frank Billingsley on Channel 2 also mentioned the arctic air. Anybody watch 13?

The 18z is quite a bit weaker with the high (1048 vs 1066) but that's neither here nor there. There is going to be fluctuations between now and the event. The euro is showing a 1070 high. So there's no need to get depressed, yet.

Hey Candy Cane do you think the GFS is also having trouble with the cold air making it this far south. The past runs show a very strong ridge but the cold air has trouble making it this far south. I would think that with a 1048 or 1066 high the cold air would be pushed much farther south than being shown.

[ronyan]

Doesn't a strong high naturally weaken as it slides closer to the equator?