Still too early to know with any certainty, cisa. With that said, the ensembles are looking mighty chilly in the 8-10 day time frame. Also the CPC January Monthly 30 day Update suggests Equal chances either above or below normal, temp wise.cisa wrote:Happy New Year guys. Any indication of winter precip in Jan?
sambucol wrote:Would that possibility include our area?
It includes the second weekend of January and the new year. How close is not too far for redneckweather to have travel too far, Austin, College Station?srainhoutx wrote:The 18Z GFS continues the trend that suggests wintry weather across TX near the Janaury 8th-10th time frame. Hmmm...
let see what the 12z spits out in a few hours....that is a nasty looking scenario for midTexas and even parts of SE TX....if that were to verify, I am sure we would see something here in greater Houston area. Freezing rain maybe few flakes but we are talking 10 days away.....sleetstorm wrote:It includes the second weekend of January and the new year. How close is not too far for redneckweather to have travel too far, Austin, College Station?srainhoutx wrote:The 18Z GFS continues the trend that suggests wintry weather across TX near the Janaury 8th-10th time frame. Hmmm...
Would there be any feasiblity of sleet or a rain & snow mix for Houston and the beleagering cities?
We made it to another new year and decade.
While the GFS backed off the mega snow for TX, the models (virtually all of them) do show a storm. What is equally impressive is the strength of the Arctic Air and very strong Arctic High pressure showing up, run after run. In fact the 00Z ensembles strongly agree with a very chilly pattern and disturbances in the Upper flow passing by as the cold air is in place. The $64,000.00 is will there be moisture available when that cold air arrives and how soon or fast does the Arctic air surge S. Also is the timing of those short waves. Even the 06Z GFS shows a near 1060mb Arctic high near AK/Western Canada. Should make for an interesting week, regardless. I looked for us on TV, too. I did notice that the footage Ch. 13 was showing was actually taken when they were at the park back on December 11th. We were passing through Discovery Green on our bikes that evening on the way to "Lights in the Heights". That couple in the bike helmets (dressed in red) were in our group and were standing right next to us on Dec. 11th when they did the interview. They were actually asking about New Year's Eve back then, probably to get footage for last night's show. Most of the footage from yesterday was taken after we'd left (toward the end of the art car parade).srainhoutx wrote:I looked for you on TV last night wxman57, but the crowds were mighty big at Discovery Green.
Several things I'm seeing is a 'hint' of a -EPO and a relaxing -NAO. Add to the mix a SSW event and tropical forcing with an expected MJO pulse. All in all my thinking is this has not been a typical La Nina pattern. There have been too many events that suggest otherwise (look at the West Coast storminess). What is somewhat typical is the persistent dry regime that was present from late fall until Christmas. That is where the pattern change began. Will it last and can the above mentioned anomalies produce in our part of the world? That remains to be seen. Happy New Year Weather Forum Family!wxman57 wrote: As for the pattern, our long-range guy agrees that cold air is building to our north. But I don't see a mechanism (yet) for the cold air to track straight south to the lee of the Rockies. It's not uncommon for such cold air to build in Canada during a La Nina. A typical La Nina pattern favors it staying up there and/or tracking southeast toward the Great Lakes and East U.S. rather than south.
For now, I don't see much of a chance of anything but rain and temps near 50 in the next 7-10 days here.
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