January Weather Discussion: Slight Chance Severe Storms

[Mr. T]

However, I will say that the wintry precip threat around day 10, and the highs in the 20s with lows in the lower teens thereafter is sure fun to look at

[biggerbyte]

Continues too look promising. I'm looking forward to
mid week. If we still see this trend by then.. Oh boy!


Brrrrrrr!!!!

[Paul]

However, I will say that the wintry precip threat around day 10, and the highs in the 20s with lows in the lower teens thereafter is sure fun to look at

hard to ignore huh T.....after tonights 0z run I am jumping on board....that is extremely cold. Pipe busting, vegatation killing cold. Throw some wintry mix into it on Day 10-11...oh my....

time to go to Lowes and get pipe wrap before this gets out....

[sambucol]

I was thinking the same thing about Lowe's. Guess I'll do that tomorrow!

[txsnowmaker]

Who knows if this will transpire, but it is fun to look at: the infamous snow depth analysis (using tonight's 0Z GFS run) courtesy of TwisterData.com appears to show snow in the Houston area beginning at hour 240 (Wednesday, Jan. 12) and continuing all the way through hour 312 (Saturday, January 16).

Here is a link to the hour 240 chart (click on the hour tabs at the upper left corner to see the progression): http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false.

[Andrew]

I was thinking the same thing about Lowe's. Guess I'll do that tomorrow!

Too early for me. Maybe at the middle of the week but i need some more runs first.

[Paul]

I was thinking the same thing about Lowe's. Guess I'll do that tomorrow!

with temps like that you can forget about plants....no way to save tender vegatation....I would focus on antifreeze and outside pipes....sprinkler systems need to be shut off and drained. Leave your pool running if you have one....

[Andrew]

Who knows if this will transpire, but it is fun to look at: the infamous snow depth analysis (using tonight's 0Z GFS run) courtesy of TwisterData.com appears to show snow in the Houston area beginning at hour 240 (Wednesday, Jan. 12) and continuing all the way through hour 312 (Saturday, January 16).

Here is a link to the hour 240 chart (click on the hour tabs at the upper left corner to see the progression): http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false.

Be warned though that precip is so small it probably won't reach the ground.

[Paul]

I was thinking the same thing about Lowe's. Guess I'll do that tomorrow!

Too early for me. Maybe at the middle of the week but i need some more runs first.

Andrew....with runs like that? hard to ignore especially with the EURO biting.....

[sambucol]

If I don't go to Lowe's tomorrow, it will be Friday when I can go. That will be too late. Thanks for the reminder about antifreeze. Does it look like we will have a chance for snow or ice? Last time we had ice, some people lost power. If ice is possible, it may be a good idea to check your generator.

[Andrew]

I was thinking the same thing about Lowe's. Guess I'll do that tomorrow!

Too early for me. Maybe at the middle of the week but i need some more runs first.

Andrew....with runs like that? hard to ignore especially with the EURO biting.....

Don't get me wrong. I believe cold air is coming. I am just not sure if it will be THAT cold yet.

[Andrew]

Canadian shows the low too:

[Andrew]

00z Euro: (cold)

[srainhoutx]

lol, crazy 00Z runs too say the least.

[Andrew]

lol, crazy 00Z runs too say the least.

A lot of people are going to have an interesting wake up. I wonder what Wxman has to say. I am more interested about the low that is supposed to track through around hour 150. Should bring some needed rain.

[Mr. T]

The only thing I don't like about the Euro is the much lower pressures being shown across Western Canada compared to the GFS and the westward movement of the Alaskan block at day 10... We don't want that block to move back into the Bering Strait. As you can see, the cold air is having trouble making it this far south...

Not a big deal at this point, though

[srainhoutx]

The only thing I don't like about the Euro is the much lower pressures being shown across Western Canada compared to the GFS and the westward movement of the Alaskan block at day 10... We don't want that block to move back into the Bering Strait.

Not a big deal at this point, though

The entire run of the Euro raises an eyebrow. PV dropping down to VA/NC? Meh. I'll wait for the ensembles before biting on that, lol The weekend storm does look better Andrew. I thought the return to more moisture and the 'cooler temps' than what has been seen the last few runs may be a step in the right direction to the sensible weather for that period. Regardless, the pattern does look very interesting. It's been a while since the signals were this strong for such an event we are seeing via guidance.

[Mr. T]

Love me some Norman NWS:

MORE ATTENTION CONTINUES TO TURN TO THE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
TURN OF EVENTS NEXT WEEK. BIG RIDGE WILL BUILD N INTO ALASKA BY
LATE WEEKEND... SUPPORTING A SIZEABLE BUILDUP OF ARCTIC AIR OVER W
CANADA AND DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS INTO SW CANADA AND NW CONUS.
FORMATION OF A 500-MB 575-580 HIGH OVER AK... WHICH HAS BEEN
ADVERTIZED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW... GENERALLY
DOES NOT TURN OUT WELL - FOR MOST OF THE LOWER 48 MUCH LESS THE S
PLAINS. GFS SFC-T PROGS FOR NEXT TUESDAY ARE UNPRECEDENTED AS FAR
AS THIS FORECASTER CAN RECALL... AND IF TAKEN LITERALLY WOULD
IMPLY THAT PARTS OF MT/WY WOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH HIGHS OF -30F
NEXT TUESDAY. THAT SEEMS A WEE BIT EXTREME... BUT IN ANY EVENT THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A TURN TOWARD SIGNIFICANT AND
POTENTIALLY SEVERE WINTER WEATHER IN SOME WAY SHAPE OR FORM - THE
STUFF NATIONAL HEADLINES ARE MADE OF - BY SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.
COLD AIR IS LIKELY TO BEGIN INVADING THE PACNW AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND AND ROLL SE THEREAFTER. AT
THIS TIME WE ARE LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND A FASTER INVASION OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE S PLAINS NEXT SUNDAY NIGHT. WHAT HAPPENS AFTER
THAT IS HARD TO SAY. BITTER COLD... SNOW AND/OR ICE... OR PERHAPS
ALL OF THE ABOVE. SUFFICE TO SAY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TROUBLESOME.

"the stuff national headlines are made of"

Whoever wrote this AFD is quite excitable.


Dallas also has a superb discussion out this morning:

/AND NOW A DISSERTATION ON A LIKELY COLD SPELL NEXT WEEK/

ALL THE MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A MAJOR
PATTERN SHIFT OCCURRING OVER THE NORTHERN LATITUDES...WITH BLOCKED
UPPER FLOW SETTING UP AND PERSISTING ACROSS CANADA. MODELS FORECAST
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE NOW OVER WESTERN CANADA TO BREAK DOWN AND BE
REPLACED BY A STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL LOW THIS WEEKEND. AS THIS
OCCURS...SURFACE TEMPS COOL AND PRESSURES GRADUALLY RISE. IN SHORT
THIS MEANS WESTERN CANADA WILL BE THE GENESIS REGION OF THE COLD
AIR MASS FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN 7 TO 8 DAYS.

THE ASTUTE OBSERVER WOULD NOTICE TEMPS ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND
ALASKA ARE NOT THAT COLD NOW. I KNOW IT IS A HABIT FOR MANY OF US
TO THROW A MAP OF SURFACE TEMPS UP AND TRY TO SEE WHERE THE COLD
AIR IS AND WHERE IT IS COMING FROM. BUT THIS IS SORT OF A RULE OF
THUMB AND IS PARTIALLY FLAWED THINKING FOR A COUPLE REASON. FIRST
COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE IS NOT A CONSERVED QUANTITY...IT DEVELOPS
AND IS ALSO DESTROYED BY COMPLEX DYNAMIC MOTIONS ALOFT. THE SECOND
REASON IS AN ANALYSIS OF WHERE OUR PAST BIG ARCTIC OUTBREAKS
ORIGINATE USING BACKWARD TRAJECTORIES SHOWS US THAT THE NORTH POLE
REGION IS PREFERRED...BUT OUR SURFACE PARCELS HERE ACTUALLY
ORIGINATE AT LEVELS BETWEEN 500MB-700MB. THUS AN ANALYSIS OF
500MB-700MB TEMPS AND ANOMALIES IN THE NORTHERN LATITUDES CAN GIVE
US A GOOD PROXY TO COMPARE AND JUDGE THE STRENGTH OF FUTURE ARCTIC
EPISODES. THESE CURRENT MID-UPPER LEVEL TEMPS ARE CHILLY...BUT NOT
TOO UNUSUAL. SO THE FRONT THAT ARRIVES IN A WEEK MAY BE
SIGNIFICANT BUT NOT RECORD BREAKING...AT LEAST NOT INITIALLY.

WHAT IS INTERESTING ABOUT THE FORECAST UPPER PATTERN IS THAT BY
7-10 DAYS AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER ALASKA...WITH A STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN CANADA. THESE POLAR LOWS ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE MAJOR
ARCTIC OUTBREAKS WHEN THEY MOVE SOUTH...AND THAT IS WHAT THE GFS
HAS BEEN FORECASTING TO OCCUR IN THE 10-15 DAY TIME RANGE. WHETHER
THIS ACTUALLY OCCURS REMAINS TO BE SEEN. REGARDLESS...THE BLOCKING
UPPER PATTERN WILL KEEP A PROLONGED FETCH OF CANADIAN/ARCTIC AIR
COMING INTO THE REGION FOR THE 2ND WEEK OF JANUARY. TOO EARLY TO
TELL WHETHER ANY MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE...BUT NONETHELESS ITS
SHAPING UP TO BE AN INTERESTING WEEK WEATHER-WISE.


HGX does not mention a thing, of course

[wxman57]

Long range (beyond 10 days) indications are that some Arctic air may move south all the way to Texas. I don't see anything like a major record-breaking cold yet, though. And I'm not seeing anything to indicate winter-type precip down here. But all this is beyond 10 days from now, so there are many uncertainties. I think it's possible that we could see enough cold air here that IAH gets down to the low-mid 20s in a few weeks. Just speculation for now.

[srainhoutx]

Here are other TX NWS snips and Dodge City, KS as well...

Amarillo:

THE ECMWF
IS ALSO MUCH COLDER THAN THE GFS BRINGING A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH
MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FAVOR THE COLDER ECMWF
SOLUTION LATE IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE
BOTH MODELS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

San Angelo:

AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...IT APPEARS THAT THE INITIAL SURGE OF
MUCH COLDER/ARCTIC AIR WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. HAVE
NOT COOLED TEMPERATURES OFF TOO MUCH AT THIS TIME AS THE COLDEST AIR
IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THIS
EVENT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH AND KEEP TRACK OF IN THE COMING
WEEK.

Austin/San Antonio:

STARTING TO SEE INDICATIONS OF AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. DID
NUDGE DOWN MIN TEMPERATURES A COUPLE CATEGORIES FOR MONDAY
NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING...BUT STILL IN LINE WITH ADJACENT OFFICES.

Corpus Christi:

THE COLD AIR WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...MODELS ARE INDICATING ARCTIC AIR PLUNGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...WITH 1050MB PLUS
HIGH PRESSURE.

Lubbock:

JUST BEYOND...SOMEWHERE PERHAPS BETWEEN LATE NEXT SUNDAY AND MAYBE
TUESDAY APPEARS TO LOOM THE ARRIVAL OF A POLAR AIRMASS. UPPER
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO ALASKA SHOULD FAVOR
DELIVERY OF SUCH A SYSTEM...THOUGH TIMING DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR
RIGHT NOW.

Dodge City:

SUNDAY ONWARDS MARKS THE MOST INTERESTING SYNOPTIC CHANGE WITH
FRIGID WEATHER BECOMING MORE OF A CONCERN. OVER THE LAST DAY OR TWO,
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN GIVING NOT SO SUBTLE HINTS AT AN ARCTIC AIR
MASS INTRUSION ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. BY NEXT WEEKEND, BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A LARGE RIDGE WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH 500 HPA
HEIGHTS BUILDING OVER ALASKA. A LARGE POLAR VORTEX IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER EASTERN CANADA. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORS CROSS POLAR
FLOW AND A NORTH TO SOUTH FLOW ACROSS CANADA. THIS FLOW WILL BRING
MUCH COLDER AIR CLOSER (SURFACE FORECAST TEMPERATURES OF -10F TO
-30F). THIS AIR MASS WILL THEN HIT THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND THEN
GRAVITY WILL EVENTUALLY SEND THIS DENSE AIR MASS SOUTH INTO THE
UNITED STATES. THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE ARCTIC FRONT TIMING AS
NOW THE GFS IS SLOWER THEN ECMWF. I SIDED WITH THE FASTER SOLUTION
AND BROUGHT THE ARCTIC AIR IN BY NEXT SUNDAY. I HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE
ON THE DOWNWARD SPIRAL FOR TEMPERATURES BUT LESS ABOUT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SUNDAY AND IF THE ARCTIC TEMPERATURES DO VERIFY THEN THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY SO I MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE EXTENDED PERIOD POPS. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THERE IS A VERY GOOD CHANCE THAT IT WILL GET VERY
COLD AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR A WHILE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS IN
ABOUT A WEEK FROM NOW.