February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[unome]

If HGX is going to issue a Winter Storm Warning before morning, perhaps it will be done in time for the 10 pm local news?

you know I was thinking that same thing, guess we'll find out soon enough

[Paul]

I mentioned a few pages back if you look at radar, the moisture seems to be getting pushed back off coast and south. Is this expected? Why do I have a feeling we may not see nearly as much moisture as predicted.

because the ULL is in MX....hasnt ejected yet across Texas...but it will.....


33 here under clear sky in Pearland...might make 30F tonight or maybe upper 20's if it stays clear...

Thanks, makes sense...a little. Is there a particular map/model I can view that shows the low and maybe were it's predicted to go? Trying to learn how to read these things, I'm a total novice and there is a huge learning curve

Any water vaopr loop of North America and you can see it and its progression....NWS website hassome good sat loops...

[Andrew]

00z GFS shows .14 in of all snow for IAH

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

[Mr. T]

No significant changes on the 0z GFS, except for slightly colder temps aloft and a faster transition to all snow

[weatherguy425]

Andrew, you mean .14 water equivelent? and 1.4 inches of snow?

[helloitsb]

00z GFS shows .14 in of all snow for IAH

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

.14 of snow? or precip?

[Mr. T]

00z GFS shows .14 in of all snow for IAH

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

I'm spoiled, that isn't epic. And won't cancel school.

And I'll call in sick if school is cancelled.

Have fun driving to work on the icy roads, then...

[unome]

sorry, I posted on the wrong thread

update is out, still a "watch" http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

000
FXUS64 KHGX 030338
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
938 PM CST WED FEB 2 2011

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...AND NO CHANGES ARE GOING TO BE MADE THIS
EVENING AS WE AWAIT FOR ALL 00Z MODEL DATA TO ARRIVE AND ANALYZE. CLOUDS
SHOULD REMAIN PRETTY THINK ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT...SO ACTUAL
LOWS MIGHT END UP A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED. THE HARD
FREEZE WARNING AND WINTER STORM WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT.

PLEASE REFER TO THE DISCUSSIONS BELOW...OUR WINTER STORM WATCH (WSWHGX)
AND OUR HARD FREEZE WARNING (NPWHGX) FOR DETAILS ON THE UPCOMING POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS WINTER WEATHER EVENT. 42
&&

[Andrew]

00z GFS shows .14 in of all snow for IAH

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

.14 of snow? or precip?

My bad everyone I meant .14 QPF= 1.4-1.68in snow

[Andrew]

00z GFS shows .14 in of all snow for IAH

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

I'm spoiled, that isn't epic. And won't cancel school.

And I'll call in sick if school is cancelled.

Have fun driving to work on the icy roads, then...

I know. I really don't understand where all this thinking that this is going to be a bust is coming from? Someone bring some credible evidence forward please.

[cwp419]

0z GFS actually looks a tad wetter -- a solid 1-3" area wide, with perhaps 4 or 5" in the lucky spots. I wouldn't focus on numerical QPF outputs.

[helloitsb]

Looks like Gene upped his Accums to 3''-5'' for north of Houston Metro, he also said a sooner start

[txsnowmaker]

"AND NO CHANGES ARE GOING TO BE MADE THIS EVENING AS WE AWAIT FOR ALL 00Z MODEL DATA TO ARRIVE AND ANALYZE."

In other words, we are skeptical of some of the lower moisture/precip levels indicated by some of the models so far and will feel better about issuing a warning after we see the Canadian/Euro?

[Andrew]

00z GFS shows .14 in of all snow for IAH

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

I'm spoiled, that isn't epic. And won't cancel school.

And I'll call in sick if school is cancelled.

Have fun driving to work on the icy roads, then...

Over 18 hours- if that is snow it'll sublimate. Nobody wants snow more than I do, but childish weenieness doesn't help.[/quote]

You do know many models including the GFS that you just posted show percip all the way until noon Friday. Not much time to sublimate.

[Paul]

low 20's are going to bust for some of us....I am at 31-32 at 10pm....not sure if I am going to make 26 with cloud cover....

[Andrew]

I'm spoiled, that isn't epic. And won't cancel school.

And I'll call in sick if school is cancelled.

Have fun driving to work on the icy roads, then...

I know. I really don't understand where all this thinking that this is going to be a bust is coming from? Someone bring some credible evidence forward please.

You're right. Both US models suggest flurries over an 18 hour period. What could I be thinking? Blizzard warning. Call up the National Guard![/quote]


Alright Ed.

[Mr. T]

Over 18 hours- if that is snow it'll sublimate. Nobody wants snow more than I do, but childish weenieness doesn't help.

Lol. I don't know WTF you're talking about now.

I guess the NWS is lying when they say this could be a dangerous event. Thanks for the heads up, Ed

[ejburas]

Looks like Gene is using US 59 as the dividing line between 2-4 inches and 3-5 inches, with the heavier amounts north and west of 59.

[Snowman]

After watching Gene Norman i am way more confident. i am going with jeffs forecast. this may be a historic event!

[txsnowmaker]

Too bad the forum's "ignore" feature doesn't include embedded posts as well!