February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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srainhoutx
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For Ed's thread. Kludge did suggest a new Topic earlier. ;)
01212011 18Z GFS_3_2011012118_F252_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png
01212011 18Z GFS_3_2011012118_F264_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png
01212011 18Z GFS_3_2011012118_F276_SNOWIN_SURFACE.png
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sleetstorm
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If I am reading those models correctly it looks like some residents and areas of central Texas could receive 9 in. three quarters of a foot of snow per hour especially that last model.
Andrew
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sleetstorm wrote:If I am reading those models correctly it looks like some residents and areas of central Texas could receive 9 in. three quarters of a foot of snow per hour especially that last model.
Those are totals not rates.
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sleetstorm
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Thank you for clearing that up for me, Andrew. Do any of you know what direction that chunk of precipitation might be moving in?
Baseballdude2915
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And there you have it...the 00z has lost it, showing seasonal temperatures, maybe a smidgen cooler than average.

Maybe a bad model run???? :(
TexasBreeze
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Baseballdude2915 wrote:And there you have it...the 00z has lost it, showing seasonal temperatures, maybe a smidgen cooler than average.

Maybe a bad model run???? :(
hehehe :) i'm not in the least suprised about that. I'm ready for 70! :mrgreen:
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Baseballdude2915 wrote:And there you have it...the 00z has lost it, showing seasonal temperatures, maybe a smidgen cooler than average.

Maybe a bad model run???? :(

Looking like a bad run to me. You don't have this just disappear:

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Andrew
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00z Euro still brings in the cold but not as cold as previous runs:
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Yeah. I was posting some questions about this on the other thread--should have placed in here. Ed, how many more runs like this before you start making Ike-type preparations?!
TexasBreeze
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I forgot about this thread. Ice would be just a nuisance (bad if in significant amounts). Can't do too much fun stuff with ice except skate. On the other hand though it would be a happy day if work got cancelled as Ed would say! :)
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C2G
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Ed Mahmoud wrote:
Never been a February snow miracle in the 11 years I lived in HOU. Well, HOU mailing address, Spring school district.
Well, you just missed a snow event in February. Believe it was February 1st or 2nd 1994, big flakes that didn't stick.
Believe it was 94 because my wife at the time was very pregnant.
Unfortunately Ed, some of us have to show up for work regardless of an impending Hurricane strike or icy roads.
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Ptarmigan
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Cloud2ground wrote: Well, you just missed a snow event in February. Believe it was February 1st or 2nd 1994, big flakes that didn't stick.
Believe it was 94 because my wife at the time was very pregnant.
Unfortunately Ed, some of us have to show up for work regardless of an impending Hurricane strike or icy roads.
I remember the 1994 snow event. The flakes were large and it was also not that cold.
cisa
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Early February used to always be the time we'd see the snow and ice when I was a kid. When was that last bad ice storm we had?
No rain, no rainbows.
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srainhoutx
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cisa wrote:Early February used to always be the time we'd see the snow and ice when I was a kid. When was that last bad ice storm we had?

Code: Select all

YEAR DATE REMARKS 
1961 January 25 Freezing Rain/Glazing 
1965 February 24 Glaze 
1968 January 8 Glaze 
1970 January 18-19 Glaze 
1971 January 7-8 Glaze 
1973 January 9-12 Glaze 
1973 February 8-9 Glaze 
1976 November 28-29 Glaze 
1977 January 2  Glaze 
1978 January 21-22 Glaze 
1982 January 12-14 Glaze 
1983 December 22-23 Glaze 
1983 December 26 Glaze 
1985 January 3 Glaze 
1985 January 12-13 Glaze 
1985 January 31 - February 1 Glaze 
1988 February 11 Glaze 
1989 February 4-8 Glaze 
1989 December 22 Glaze 
1990 December 22-23 Glaze 
1994 February 8-9 Glaze 
1997 January 12-14 Glaze 
2007 January 16-17 Freezing Rain/Glaze 
http://www.wxresearch.com/almanac/houice.htm
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cisa
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srainhoutx wrote:
cisa wrote:Early February used to always be the time we'd see the snow and ice when I was a kid. When was that last bad ice storm we had?

Code: Select all

YEAR DATE REMARKS 
1961 January 25 Freezing Rain/Glazing 
1965 February 24 Glaze 
1968 January 8 Glaze 
1970 January 18-19 Glaze 
1971 January 7-8 Glaze 
1973 January 9-12 Glaze 
1973 February 8-9 Glaze 
1976 November 28-29 Glaze 
1977 January 2  Glaze 
1978 January 21-22 Glaze 
1982 January 12-14 Glaze 
1983 December 22-23 Glaze 
1983 December 26 Glaze 
1985 January 3 Glaze 
1985 January 12-13 Glaze 
1985 January 31 - February 1 Glaze 
1988 February 11 Glaze 
1989 February 4-8 Glaze 
1989 December 22 Glaze 
1990 December 22-23 Glaze 
1994 February 8-9 Glaze 
1997 January 12-14 Glaze 
2007 January 16-17 Freezing Rain/Glaze 
http://www.wxresearch.com/almanac/houice.htm
thank you Srain. I sure hope we get something interesting this winter.
No rain, no rainbows.
southerngale
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The January, 1997 ice storm was worse just a little to your east. We had an inch of ice in Beaumont, no power for many days, and it was a miserable, horrible experience. I don't remember how many days we didn't get above freezing, but I didn't have a fireplace at the time and we just bundled up and tried to keep from freezing. I can still remember the feeling of frozen solid feet. While I'd love some snow, I don't want to go through another ice storm. I do have a fireplace now though, so it would be more bearable, assuming one of those gazillion trees and large branches didn't crash down on my house. :P

Here's a write-up on it from NWS LCH. Some of you may enjoy reading the synoptics leading up to the event.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lch/?n=icestorm97
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don
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I remember the 1997 ice storm, at he time i lived in Humble and we had over an inch of ice accumulation also, i still remember that night so vividly because of the thunderstorms that developed which is pretty amazing when you have temps at freezing! We were without power for less than 24 hours.
cisa
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don wrote:I remember the 1997 ice storm, at he time i lived in Humble and we had over an inch of ice accumulation also, i still remember that night so vividly because of the thunderstorms that developed which is pretty amazing when you have temps at freezing! We were without power for less than 24 hours.
Yeah, I live just north of Humble and we lost power then too. The one I was thinkiing of was 1985, b/c my son was small. The parking lot at work was like Ice for a couple of days b/c people would pour water on their windshields to deice them and it would run down on the ground and refreeze. That was like consecutive days though. It's been a while.
No rain, no rainbows.
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Ptarmigan
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srainhoutx wrote:
cisa wrote:Early February used to always be the time we'd see the snow and ice when I was a kid. When was that last bad ice storm we had?

Code: Select all

YEAR DATE REMARKS 
1961 January 25 Freezing Rain/Glazing 
1965 February 24 Glaze 
1968 January 8 Glaze 
1970 January 18-19 Glaze 
1971 January 7-8 Glaze 
1973 January 9-12 Glaze 
1973 February 8-9 Glaze 
1976 November 28-29 Glaze 
1977 January 2  Glaze 
1978 January 21-22 Glaze 
1982 January 12-14 Glaze 
1983 December 22-23 Glaze 
1983 December 26 Glaze 
1985 January 3 Glaze 
1985 January 12-13 Glaze 
1985 January 31 - February 1 Glaze 
1988 February 11 Glaze 
1989 February 4-8 Glaze 
1989 December 22 Glaze 
1990 December 22-23 Glaze 
1994 February 8-9 Glaze 
1997 January 12-14 Glaze 
2007 January 16-17 Freezing Rain/Glaze 
http://www.wxresearch.com/almanac/houice.htm
January 1985 had three ice storms in one month! 1976 had an icestorm in November, the earliest on record. I remember one in February 1996.

If we do the math and see how often ice storms happen in Houston from 1961 to 2011, which is 50 years, it should on average every 2.2 years. I know there have been ice storms in January/February 1951 and possibly February 1906.

Here is another article about ice storms.
http://www.americanlifelinesalliance.or ... maries.pdf
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srainhoutx
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While the 12Z GFS may have backed off temporarily on the cold settling into TX, the Upper Air (500mb) pattern still looks rather interesting and suggests a robust storm taking shape to our W late this weekend/early next week...also Impact Weather discusses the upcoming pattern for the 1st of February near the end of the video...

http://www.youtube.com/impactweather
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