February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[TexasMetBlake]

I don't trust the GFS any more than I do the Euro. I just think it is the more realistic of the 3 global models. It has been 'more right' than the Euro has been this winter thus far.

[wxman666]

I will keep my lips sealed about abc 13.

Anyway, this is the very reason I didn't get excited. The Euro, which used to be the voice of reason, has had a lot of variability as of late and really can't be trusted. While some will say the models accurately predicted the last cold spell, it was severely over-estimated and the '89 type freeze that was shown with a 1070 high never materialized. I've noticed a lot of model hugging here (tonight it's the Canadian holding on to a freezing rain event). The point is you have to look at the 'voice of reason' which tonight is the GFS. You have to ask yourself, which is most realistic for HOUSTON, TEXAS? Reality says the Euro and CMC are out to lunch. While the GFS does show cold, I'm not inclined to believe that this is going to be anything out of the ordinary. Could I be wrong? Of course! However, I'm not a big fan of the terminology, 'but things could change.' Sure, the models may very well change on the fine details, but it is my personal belief that inside of day 6 and 7, the models *usually* have a decent handle on what the upper-level pattern will look like and how it will evolve. I mean I COULD be a millionaire if I played the lottery, but realistically I'm not going to be. I struggle with the idea of a big winter storm here next week as I just don't see the moisture.

I'll repeat what wxman said--the cold air is in Canada. That's good. Also, the models aren't showing a big high pressure coming down the Rockies (1050+). The good news is you don't need a high that big anyway to get cold air here...especially if the cold is at the surface. However, I just don't see a nice McFarland Signature or Omega block over Alaska to send this down with temps dropping to record levels here. For those who say 'but the freeze line is over us!'---that's fine and all, but for a good ICE event, you need temps a few degrees BELOW freezing. Hovering at 32 is not going to do it for you...not if you wan't an ice storm like 1997.

All in all, I think we may see highs in the 40s next week with mostly cloudy skies. I just really don't see the models trending colder. In my crystal ball, I'd suspect that the models will only get drier and slightly warmer as we close in on this 'event.' Just my thoughts.

Trust me, we're on the same page about 13. I am restraining myself too. As for the models, we shall see. I'm not inclined to believe any of them yet. However, I've watched our area get hit with winter weather 3 consecutive years in a row, so I'm also not inclined to take any threats/potential light heartedly. I've been through some doozies growing up in TX....I've seen how bad things get and want to make sure I'm not caught off guard.

[Andrew]

I don't trust the GFS any more than I do the Euro. I just think it is the more realistic of the 3 global models. It has been 'more right' than the Euro has been this winter thus far.

Yea that is true there just seems to be too many weird outcomes with the GFS over the last couple of runs for me to completely trust it. On the other hand the CMC is known for its cold bias so that is why I think the Euro is having the best grasp on the situation.

Thanks for your input Candy Cane. It always helps to hear from a pro.

[TexasMetBlake]

Maybe I'm just cranky and grumpy tonight, but I think we're trying to see something that is not there. I really don't see a great cause for concern at this point about anything wintry.

[Andrew]

Maybe I'm just cranky and grumpy tonight, but I think we're trying to see something that is not there. I really don't see a great cause for concern at this point about anything wintry.

No it is all good thanks for your input. Like I said above I don't think any model really knows what is going on so I think it is too early to worry about any wintry precip.

[biggerbyte]

Come on guys.. Say what you will about Heller. He may not be perfect all of the time, but he has nailed some events that others have severely missed. One being this last "event". Many, including some folks I'm this forum, called him crazy, and mocked him when he said this area would get only rain. His forecast was on the money.

I know you guys don't want to say anything. I'm just saying', in his defense.

Oh well!!! Maybe you all know something I do not..

Off to bed..

Goodnight, fellows.


BB

[wxman666]

Maybe I'm just cranky and grumpy tonight, but I think we're trying to see something that is not there. I really don't see a great cause for concern at this point about anything wintry.

No it is all good thanks for your input. Like I said above I don't think any model really knows what is going on so I think it is too early to worry about any wintry precip.

Like all storms, the "hurry up and wait" game begins, and that's always the most aggravating part. It can make us all a little cranky. I was exhausted after that first arctic blast we tracked.

[biggerbyte]

Agreed on the nothing to worry about right now. Give it a few more days.

[TexasBreeze]

I like candy cane's take on this situation. It really is the more realistic scenario that will probably happen. More of the same weather as recently around here.

[wxman666]

Come on guys.. Say what you will about Heller. He may not be perfect all of the time, but he has nailed some events that others have severely missed. One being this last "event". Many, including some folks I'm this forum, called him crazy, and mocked him when he said this area would get only rain. His forecast was on the money.

I know you guys don't want to say anything. I'm just saying', in his defense.

Oh well!!! Maybe you all know something I do not..

Off to bed..

Goodnight, fellows.


BB

Lol, he's not too bad. My only problem is I just wish he'd try not to drive people into a sense of "that is impossible" so often because when it does happen, the consequences would not be good if people got complacent. But I watched Tim for quite awhile. Anywho, get some rest BB.

[TexasMetBlake]

Come on guys.. Say what you will about Heller. He may not be perfect all of the time, but he has nailed some events that others have severely missed. One being this last "event". Many, including some folks I'm this forum, called him crazy, and mocked him when he said this area would get only rain. His forecast was on the money.

I know you guys don't want to say anything. I'm just saying', in his defense.

Oh well!!! Maybe you all know something I do not..

Off to bed..

Goodnight, fellows.


BB

I thought his approach was kinda tasteless. 'Some media has reported areas around Houston could see wintry precip. Here at ABC 13, we are forecasting RAIN. Funny he never mentions who. I'm surprised they havent' run a promo yet about how much better they are than everybody else.

[Andrew]

Alright lets get back to weather.

[vci_guy2003]

Lol, I was the one who posted on his blog that there was chatter about a potential snow event in SE Texas , in which he vehemently responded with, RAIN!

[TexasBreeze]

Funny thing is is that it may not even RAIN! What if it's a dry cold?

[Andrew]

00z Euro

[wxman666]

So when is our next model refresh? Oops. Never mind, haha!

[Andrew]

So when is our next model refresh? Oops. Never mind, haha!

Off to bed


Edit: on my phone and someone might want to post last frame of euro as there is a little surprise. . Euro is on board more for happiness.

[wxman666]

So when is our next model refresh? Oops. Never mind, haha!

Off to bed

Same here. Night y'all. Will reassess things in the morning. Great work everyone.

[TexasBreeze]

Looks like a coastal low like today's system. but it's only 10 days away! hehehe

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ECMWF0.5_0z/f240.gif

[tireman4]

10 days Ed....still 10 long days away.....LOL