February 1-5, 2011 Arctic Blast/Winter Storm Discussion

[srainhoutx]

UKMET is trending colder and more wintry precip. I think we see where this is heading...

[Mr. T]

NWS has changed their tune and is only forcasting a Wintry Mix for Urban Houston....I'm starting to get bummed out now. Next thing you know it will just be a cold rain. crap, somebody talk me off the ledge because I want snow. Not a crippling ice storm...I'd rather just have rain if we not going to get snow.

There is no chance of this being just rain

[cristina99]

NWS has changed their tune and is only forcasting a Wintry Mix for Urban Houston....I'm starting to get bummed out now. Next thing you know it will just be a cold rain. crap, somebody talk me off the ledge because I want snow. Not a crippling ice storm...I'd rather just have rain if we not going to get snow.

Listen to some of the voices of reason on this thing (one which I am not) - we just don't know right now. I doubt it will be just rain. These things are so ever changing and unpredictable. BUT, just so they don't change North of I-10's chances for snow or ice. Take yourself away for a moment or two, then come back. You will have a clearer head.

[michmich]

So we need to drag the generator out of storage?????

Electricity has gone out at our office three times now this morning. Sheesh!

[Mr. T]

They didn't change the sleet and snow accumulations across Houston at all. They increased ice accumulation, especially near the coast

[Portastorm]

Weather/power update -- State offices/agencies here in Austin are being asked to reduce power consumption to minimal levels and consider shutting down.

[srainhoutx]

Euro has precip starting tomm at noon

02022011 12Z Euro f24.gif

02022011 12Z Euro f48.gif

[Andrew]

Euro is a lot wetter also. .33in of wintry fun.

[clute28]

Let me try and get thi right..there is no chance of snow along the coast right just ice?

[Katdaddy]

If I see snow wonderful, if not no big deal. Would rather see snow than an ice storm.......shades of 1997? Who knows how it will all pan out with Winter precip types. One thing I do know is that Houston will begin to crawl to a hault once precip begins.
I fully expect to head out of downtown early tomorrow.

[jasons2k]

Y'all - the talk of possible freezing rain or sleet is because of a warm layer aloft depicted on the future model soundings.

A few things to remember: 1) As WxMan as commented - there is a lot of uncertainly on forecast model soundings. It could be all snow, across the board.

2) Surface temps and especially dew points are very low. Whatever falls into the cold surface layer will either freeze into sleet or freeze on contact (freezing rain). This isn't going to turn into a cold rain and 35, although come Friday some of you may wish it was 35 degrees and raining.

Basically, the gist of the NWS discussion is that there is a lot of uncertainly on not only where, but if there will be a warm layer that verifies. Right now, their best guess is that the US-59 Corridor is the dividing line between all snow north and a possible mixture south. This is still subject to many changes to getting all caught-up in the details right now will just lead to hand-wringing...because 3 or 6 hours from now it'll be something new.

[Mr. T]

Euro is a lot wetter also. .33in of wintry fun.

Three winters in a row baby! Though, this one may end up quite worse with more ice this time

[Andrew]

Euro is a lot wetter also. .33in of wintry fun.

Three winters in a row baby! Though, this one may end up quite worse with more ice this time

I'm really excited and concerned.

[srainhoutx]

Y'all - the talk of possible freezing rain or sleet is because of a warm layer aloft depicted on the future model soundings.

A few things to remember: 1) As WxMan as commented - there is a lot of uncertainly on forecast model sounding. It could be all snow, across the board.

2) Surface temps and especially dew points are very low. Whatever falls into the cold surface layer will either freeze into sleet or freeze on contact (freezing rain). This isn't going to turn into a cold rain and 35, although come Friday some of you may wish it was 35 degrees and raining.

Basically, the gist of the NWS discussion is that there is a lot of uncertainly on not only where, but if there will be a warm layer that verifies. Right now, there best guess is that the US-59 Corridor is the dividing line between all snow north and a possible mixture south. This is still subject to many changes to getting all caught-up in the details right now will just lead to hand-wringing...because 3 or 6 hours from now it'll be something new.

Bingo, Jason. I also want to remind folks that this event may well start sooner than previously thought. Cold air is in place as we all know. I stated a couple of days ago that this was a very changeable forecast, and we are seeing that this is exactly what is happening. We have no doubts about the WSW issue any longer. That Watch was issued at 11:44AM. Time is rapidly approaching and all the hand wringing will likely be a distant memory.

[weather101]

LCH NWS is in a coma! What is up with these guys...all the local stations including Mr. Conservative Greg Bostwick is even running up the flag. These guys are going to sit on this winter storm time bomb...aka...ice storm till the last minute

[clute28]

Could that warm pocket of air b there one model run and b gone the next?

[jasons2k]

Could that warm pocket of air b there one model run and b gone the next?

Yes, but usually when that shows-up, it means the models are onto something. A layer of warm air will likely get entrained causing a mess along the coast. Just my $.02.

[srainhoutx]

Could that warm pocket of air b there one model run and b gone the next?

Yep.

[TexasMetBlake]

I think we need to be prepared for the 'Winter Storm of the Century' for us. A deadly combo of ice covered by snow and temps below freezing for nearly 3 days. Folks, it could be rain tomorrow but with surface temps in the 20s, we're screwed.

[Mr. T]

Euro is a lot wetter also. .33in of wintry fun.

Three winters in a row baby! Though, this one may end up quite worse with more ice this time

I'm really excited and concerned.

Yes. Definitely concerned