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The 12Z Canadian (GEM) suggests a 1048mb Arctic High pressure heading S from Western Canada @ hour 144 with an Upper Level storm heading S as well (January 30th). At hour 180, temps fall across N TX as the Arctic boundary heads S with a 1052mb High Pressure ridge heading S along the lee side of the Rockies and our future weather interest (winter storm) takes shape to our W...The trend continues...

12Z GFS now has a cold rain event for TX next week. Canadian doesn't go out far enough, but it is suggestive of possible much colder air than the GFS is indicating, along with moisture from an approaching trof next Tue-Wed.

What it looks like is that the arctic front the beginning of next week looks shallow in nature and not that deep at all. Is this what y'all are thinking? If so then it will be hard to squeeze a flake out of an airmass like this, even if it is near freezing or below at the surface...more of a sleet/freezing rain type of even if anything.

Thoughts?

Uh oh it's a case of which model to believe now. Other models will probably trend gfs way. Gfs could bring winter precip back but I won't count on it.

Euro coming in a bit stronger through 144. I am on my phone right now but I'm sure someone will post an image soon

Edit: at 192 the cold air is heading south and fast. A lot stronger on this run but I can't tell how the moisture is looking at this point.

Euro is looking very cold for us with a 1044 high dropping down the rockies. Shows a nice upper-level flow at 192 as a disturbance begins to take shape out west.

This is my opinion only, but I'm not buying such a strong solution by the Euro. I still think it'll be an 'enhanced cold front' vs a major arctic chill. I've seen the Euro cry wolf too many times this year...and even during last year's hurricane season. However the ensembles of the gfs and the cmc seem to be on board. One thing that has my hopes on life support is the cold air in Canada. It's there. It's just a matter of time and trajectory that we need to figure out.

Yeah and then near the end of the run, it drops the Mother of All Arctic Airmasses down into the Southern Plains.

Oh my ...

GFS Ensembles:

Portastorm wrote:Yeah and then near the end of the run, it drops the Mother of All Arctic Airmasses down into the Southern Plains.

Oh my ...

This looks like it is from one of the meteorologists at the Portastorm Weather Center. Did he accidentally leave the pizza on the hard drive again. Sigh.

CMC trying to bring down the mother load, too...

You would think so with a run that extreme, huh?!

I'm filing this Euro run next to the one from a few weeks ago which showed a 1070mb high in western Canada.

Is it looking like we will still have moisture around once the cold air is in place on the lastest euro run?

Rich wrote:Is it looking like we will still have moisture around once the cold air is in place on the lastest euro run?

The latest Euro backs off on the moisture but is much colder. The Euro shows areas around here and to the coast getting down to the lower 20's.

Thanks for the explanations guys!

im getting the feeling that this is just going to be another normal cold front for us here in Houston it seems like each time our chances are getting smaller and smaller for any wintry mix. please correct me if im wrong though

Mr. Weather wrote:im getting the feeling that this is just going to be another normal cold front for us here in Houston it seems like each time our chances are getting smaller and smaller for any wintry mix. please correct me if im wrong though

Again, to quote Wxman57, patience is the key here. We are still WAY to out for anything concrete. These models will flip flop many times before settling in.

Portastorm wrote:You would think so with a run that extreme, huh?!

I'm filing this Euro run next to the one from a few weeks ago which showed a 1070mb high in western Canada.

Other models showed the same thing

They were right about the extended cold spell we saw, just not the extreme part of it

Ed Mahmoud wrote:

Mr. Weather wrote:im getting the feeling that this is just going to be another normal cold front for us here in Houston it seems like each time our chances are getting smaller and smaller for any wintry mix. please correct me if im wrong though

My gut, probably, but one has to look at the glass half full, as it is styill several weeks to the usual start of severe weather season.

I do think (Portastorm can check) we had a severe storm in February 1990 in Austin, but normally, that is a ways off, the Super Bowl is in 2 weeks, and you have to keep interested in something.

Right you are, Ed! February 1, 1990 ... a severe thunderstorm in Travis County with a reported 61 mph wind gust.

Andrew, Wxma, mr. T, srain anyone give me an idea of temps next week I don't care bout precip. I need to make a decision on buying a better pressure washer for the snow machine but I have to justify with the boss (wife) if we might get cold enough. Really need it to wash my house and motorhome but hey sounds better if I tell her im going to make snow for the kids