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sleetstorm wrote:This weekend will be telling as to what type of precipitation that southeast Texas could get. So Andrew, have all of the models backed off on the feasible snow/sleetstorm for sometime early next month?

no not really GFS still has plenty of moisture but less cold. Canadian is in the middle and Euro is the driest (as of 12z runs) Still precip will be the last thing that we will know about this system and we prob won't know until this weekend at the earliest.

Gfs is having a lot of trouble pushing the cold air south. I see no way this cold air will just sit in the middle of the country like this for so long. Garbage to me.

BTW wanted to mention that this is the first "shot" of cold air. The Feb 3 "event" is still forming at this point.

Andrew wrote:Gfs is having a lot of trouble pushing the cold air south. I see no way this cold air will just sit in the middle of the country like this for so long. Garbage to me.

GFS = Garbage Forecast Soundings. LOL!

wxman666 wrote:

Andrew wrote:Gfs is having a lot of trouble pushing the cold air south. I see no way this cold air will just sit in the middle of the country like this for so long. Garbage to me.

GFS = Garbage Forecast Soundings. LOL!

I mean I know I am just an amateur but come on man! haha just don't see why it would just sit there.

Alright then the Feb 2-3 event has the high settling over us but yet the cold air goes to the east of us. We get a glancing blow which would provide freezing temps but yet again it doesn't make sense with the location of the ridge....

One thing I am taking from this and have been seeing a trend is the lack of moisture. More and more I think we WILL see the cold air but we will NOT see any precipitation. As I stated before I see so many of these Cut-off lows that appear at the 10-12 day range only to dissipate or speed up a couple days later. It is too far away to accurately say if we are going to get any precip but I am defiantly not liking the trend.

Andrew wrote:

wxman666 wrote:

Andrew wrote:Gfs is having a lot of trouble pushing the cold air south. I see no way this cold air will just sit in the middle of the country like this for so long. Garbage to me.

GFS = Garbage Forecast Soundings. LOL!

I mean I know I am just an amateur but come on man! haha just don't see why it would just sit there.

Well I am an amateur myself (been self-studying since I was about 5 or 6 so that's relatively 15 years but no degree, lol). However, I do believe we tend to rely too much on computer models nowadays. I like to think back to the days of Harold Taft...paper maps and no computer models....or even just back to events like the '74 super outbreak. Radars back then kind of looked like pong, lol! All those Tornado Warnings were written by typewriters and came too late. But boy, we sure had more confidence in our forecasting skills back then it seems...for the most part. Now we wait to see what the models do and end up issuing an Ice Storm Warning when the freezing rain starts falling, lol!

Andrew wrote:Alright then the Feb 2-3 event has the high settling over us but yet the cold air goes to the east of us. We get a glancing blow which would provide freezing temps but yet again it doesn't make sense with the location of the ridge....

One thing I am taking from this and have been seeing a trend is the lack of moisture. More and more I think we WILL see the cold air but we will NOT see any precipitation. As I stated before I see so many of these Cut-off lows that appear at the 10-12 day range only to dissipate or speed up a couple days later. It is too far away to accurately say if we are going to get any precip but I am defiantly not liking the trend.

It will change 5+ more times before the day, give it time.

Ah ha.. Someone else who knows who Harold Taft is. He is only the greatest weatherman to have ever lived. He and Doc, that is. He was still alive when I lived in Dallas. WBAP Radio, and KXAS TV had him as thier chief weather dude. I'll never forget him. Harold taught me so much.

You are right about the models. Harold would not forecast out more than three days, buy the accuracy was top notch. He felt that there was no point in using models, because anything more than three days out would change anyway. The days of real weather forecasters are long gone, and have been replaced by computers. Tim Heller is pretty good though. He said the last event would not produce frozen precip. in our area, with many calling him crazy. Lol

Anyway!! It is refreshing to see someone mention Mr. Taft, other than myself.

biggerbyte wrote:Ah ha.. Someone else who knows who Harold Taft is. He is only the greatest weatherman to have ever lived. He and Doc, that is. He was still alive when I lived in Dallas. WBAP Radio, and KXAS TV had him as thier chief weather dude. I'll never forget him. Harold taught me so much.

You are right about the models. Harold would not forecast out more than three days, buy the accuracy was top notch. He felt that there was no point in using models, because anything more than three days out would change anyway. The days of real weather forecasters are long gone, and have been replaced by computers. Tim Heller is pretty good though. He said the last event would not produce frozen precip. in our area, with many calling him crazy. Lol

Anyway!! It is refreshing to see someone mention Mr. Taft, other than myself.

Lol! Perhaps we Dallasites just know him. I sure do wish doc was still on camera...he was my favorite met down here. I agree though, Taft was a legend. I like the guy they have on WFAA 8 up there. He's pretty awesome. And Gary England former met for OKC....covered the May 1999 F5 with live footage of it. That man saved lives.

CMC is showing a freezing rain threat for areas around here. Still maintains the cut off low with the cold air. A 1040mb ridge is placed at the panhandle.

Andrew wrote:CMC is showing a freezing rain threat for areas around here. Still maintains the cut off low with the cold air. A 1040mb ridge is placed at the panhandle.

Very nice. That's what I like to see.

Cool, wxman666. Like no one will ever replace Harold, the same applies to Doc. They, like Dan, are greatly missed.

Oh well!! Back on topic, I guess.

I see Andrew has posted something.

Here is the problem the GFS and other models from what I can tell have been showing some shallowness in this cold weather. As a result freezing rain could be a real issue.

biggerbyte wrote:Cool, wxman666. Like no one will ever replace Harold, the same applies to Doc. They, like Dan, are greatly missed.

Oh well!! Back on topic, I guess.

I see Andrew has posted something.

Yeah, looking like the Canadian is being fairly persistent with the ice storm theory.

Andrew wrote:Here is the problem the GFS and other models from what I can tell have been showing some shallowness in this cold weather. As a result freezing rain could be a real issue.

Hey Andrew, does it appear that the GFS has flopped back towards a more moist scenario?

I will keep my lips sealed about abc 13.

Anyway, this is the very reason I didn't get excited. The Euro, which used to be the voice of reason, has had a lot of variability as of late and really can't be trusted. While some will say the models accurately predicted the last cold spell, it was severely over-estimated and the '89 type freeze that was shown with a 1070 high never materialized. I've noticed a lot of model hugging here (tonight it's the Canadian holding on to a freezing rain event). The point is you have to look at the 'voice of reason' which tonight is the GFS. You have to ask yourself, which is most realistic for HOUSTON, TEXAS? Reality says the Euro and CMC are out to lunch. While the GFS does show cold, I'm not inclined to believe that this is going to be anything out of the ordinary. Could I be wrong? Of course! However, I'm not a big fan of the terminology, 'but things could change.' Sure, the models may very well change on the fine details, but it is my personal belief that inside of day 6 and 7, the models *usually* have a decent handle on what the upper-level pattern will look like and how it will evolve. I mean I COULD be a millionaire if I played the lottery, but realistically I'm not going to be. I struggle with the idea of a big winter storm here next week as I just don't see the moisture.

I'll repeat what wxman said--the cold air is in Canada. That's good. Also, the models aren't showing a big high pressure coming down the Rockies (1050+). The good news is you don't need a high that big anyway to get cold air here...especially if the cold is at the surface. However, I just don't see a nice McFarland Signature or Omega block over Alaska to send this down with temps dropping to record levels here. For those who say 'but the freeze line is over us!'---that's fine and all, but for a good ICE event, you need temps a few degrees BELOW freezing. Hovering at 32 is not going to do it for you...not if you wan't an ice storm like 1997.

All in all, I think we may see highs in the 40s next week with mostly cloudy skies. I just really don't see the models trending colder. In my crystal ball, I'd suspect that the models will only get drier and slightly warmer as we close in on this 'event.' Just my thoughts.

wxman666 wrote:

Andrew wrote:Here is the problem the GFS and other models from what I can tell have been showing some shallowness in this cold weather. As a result freezing rain could be a real issue.

Hey Andrew, does it appear that the GFS has flopped back towards a more moist scenario?

Well at first I thought that the GFS totally dropped the low but upon further analysis it still has the low but it speeds it up. As a result the cold front would be the only moisture we would receive with little to no wintry precip.

Yes, I am more concerned about ice, falling, and/or freezing, than I am too much snow. It all depends on the cold air we get, which it is too early to say. I'm not ruling out snow entirely, no more than getting nothing at all, but icing has been on my radar since day one of this event unfolding. We sure need to watch out. This would be the nasty winter scenario that, although it is pretty, the damage and danger caused by ice makes it unfitting. Bring us snow, darnit.

Candy Cane wrote:I will keep my lips sealed about abc 13.

Anyway, this is the very reason I didn't get excited. The Euro, which used to be the voice of reason, has had a lot of variability as of late and really can't be trusted. While some will say the models accurately predicted the last cold spell, it was severely over-estimated and the '89 type freeze that was shown with a 1070 high never materialized. I've noticed a lot of model hugging here (tonight it's the Canadian holding on to a freezing rain event). The point is you have to look at the 'voice of reason' which tonight is the GFS. You have to ask yourself, which is most realistic for HOUSTON, TEXAS? Reality says the Euro and CMC are out to lunch. While the GFS does show cold, I'm not inclined to believe that this is going to be anything out of the ordinary. Could I be wrong? Of course! However, I'm not a big fan of the terminology, 'but things could change.' Sure, the models may very well change on the fine details, but it is my personal belief that inside of day 6 and 7, the models *usually* have a decent handle on what the upper-level pattern will look like and how it will evolve. I mean I COULD be a millionaire if I played the lottery, but realistically I'm not going to be. I struggle with the idea of a big winter storm here next week as I just don't see the moisture.

I'll repeat what wxman said--the cold air is in Canada. That's good. Also, the models aren't showing a big high pressure coming down the Rockies (1050+). The good news is you don't need a high that big anyway to get cold air here...especially if the cold is at the surface. However, I just don't see a nice McFarland Signature or Omega block over Alaska to send this down with temps dropping to record levels here. For those who say 'but the freeze line is over us!'---that's fine and all, but for a good ICE event, you need temps a few degrees BELOW freezing. Hovering at 32 is not going to do it for you...not if you wan't an ice storm like 1997.

All in all, I think we may see highs in the 40s next week with mostly cloudy skies. I just really don't see the models trending colder. In my crystal ball, I'd suspect that the models will only get drier and slightly warmer as we close in on this 'event.' Just my thoughts.

How can you trust the GFS (or say it is any worst than the euro) with its track record. Yes we could very well get highs int he 40's next week but with the cold air already being to the north and many models (including the 00z gfs) showing freezing temperatures I feel like we will see temps well below the 40's. For me the big kicker is whether we will get any precip with this cold weather. As far as I am concerned from looking at all the models so far I don't think any one of them has a real good grasp on the situation and this won't change for a while. I guess time will tell.


Me personally, I think we will see freezing temps in the mid to lower 20's (IAH) but with little to no precip. That is my ten day forecast.