February Ends Warm and Dry

[skidog38]

i went to weatherbug and picked a town to see how fast temps dropped. i picked abilene tx. dropped from 51 to 37 in about 15 min..

[skidog38]

i went to weatherbug and picked a town to see how fast temps dropped. i picked abilene tx. dropped from 51 to 37 in about 15 min..

strongest cold front ive ever seen
2 min after i posted 34

[srainhoutx]

Sweetwater. 29 degree drop. Very impressive.

[skidog38]

i went to weatherbug and picked a town to see how fast temps dropped. i picked abilene tx. dropped from 51 to 37 in about 15 min..

strongest cold front ive ever seen
2 min after i posted 34

32

[wxman666]

Sweetwater. 29 degree drop. Very impressive.

I take it it's coming in a lot stronger?

[wxman57]

Here are some 00Z NAM meteograms. First, Houston. Still appears that the precip will end hours before temps reach near 32 at the surface, and 850mb temps are quite well above freezing, so cold rain:


College Station: 00Z NAM has most precip falling between 6am and 9am with the temperature between 37-42, then a trace of precip between 9am-10am with the temperature between 35-37 deg. That means NAM says cold rain for College Station. If the surface temp drops faster, then it could reach freezing earlier, but the precip may end earlier, too.


Austin: NAM has precip ending by around 7am-8am with the temperature in the upper 30s and the 850mb temp in the 44 deg range. That would mean cold rain, according to the NAM. Again, could reach freezing earlier, but precip could end sooner.


Dallas/Ft. Worth: NAM still indicates about 0.1 to 0.13" precip once the temperature at the surface reaches 32 deg. But it also indicates 850mb temps may be below 32 at the time, so it's forecasting about 1-2" snow for the DFW area:

[srainhoutx]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
941 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

.UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT IS AHEAD OF SCHEDULE BY A COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE
CURRENT POSITION NEAR A FORT STOCKTON...ABILENE...WICHITA FALLS
LINE. EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF NORTH
TEXAS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. WILL UPDATE THE TEMPERATURE...DEW
POINT AND WIND GRIDS BASED ON THE FASTER FRONT. THESE CHANGES WILL
ALSO SPILL OVER INTO THE WEDNESDAY MORNING GRIDS WITH COLDER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

VERY IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS. WE WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHWEST
HALF OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS
ON WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD FALL BELOW CRITERIA IN ALL ZONES
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE PANHANDLE AND
WESTERN OKLAHOMA...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. WE EXPECT
SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES. NAM AND GFS BOTH
SHOWING STRONG/MOIST ASSENT ON THE 290K SURFACE. AM HAVING A BIT
OF CONCERN ABOUT THE MOISTURE WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF MUCH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION AND SHUTTING
DOWN PRECIP QUICKLY. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
STILL SUPPORTS SOME QPF ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. SO FOR NOW
WE WILL LEAVE THE WINTER STORM WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN PLACE.

[TexasMetBlake]

Montgomery County now under a Winter Weather Advisory. That's interesting...

[srainhoutx]

Montgomery County now under a Winter Weather Advisory. That's interesting...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1005 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM
WEDNESDAY...

.STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
SLEET.

TXZ178-179-199-091215-
/O.EXA.KHGX.WW.Y.0001.110209T1600Z-110209T2300Z/
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COLDSPRING...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
LIVINGSTON...ONALASKA...SHEPHERD...THE WOODLANDS...WILLIS
1005 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM CST
WEDNESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE POTENTIAL OF FREEZING RAIN...WHICH
IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM CST WEDNESDAY.

AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING.
EXPECT RAINFALL AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW
FREEZING IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION COULD FREEZE AS IT CONTACTS THE SURFACE. THIS
PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS AS
DRIER AIR MOVE IN ALOFT. EVEN THOUGH THE RAIN WILL BE
ENDING...STANDING PUDDLES WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
FREEZE...MAINLY ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES. MOTORISTS SHOULD
USE CAUTION IF DRIVING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN
NORTH AND NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE COUNTY.

ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. THIS UPCOMING WEATHER
EVENT WILL BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES IN THE ADVISORY AREA MAY BECOME COVERED
WITH A THIN LAYER OF PATCHY ICE MAKING DRIVING HAZARDOUS.

[BiggieSmalls]

I have a lot less expertise on the subject of weather than most over here, but just by looking at the radar map, and then watching the local TV forecast projections, I woudln't be surprised at all if DFW gets little or no actual precipitation...I just can't see how or why the line of storms as they appear now will blow up and drop 2-3 inches of snow on us as they are saying will happen.

We will see in the morning who is right...

[sleetstorm]

I wonder how much that the forecast/predictions for this arctic wave might bust regarding wintery precipitation & temperatures?

[Andrew]

Good flow from the south is going to create some good moisture when the front gets near the coast.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southplains_loop.php


Also Euro has come in faster with the cold air.

[TexasBreeze]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1156 PM CST TUE FEB 8 2011

.AVIATION...
COLD AIR BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT COMING IN MUCH COLDER THAN EARLIER
MODEL RUNS HAD SUGGESTED. ALONG THOSE SAME LINES...THE AMOUNT/TYPE
OF PCPN AND TIMING OF SAID PCPN ALSO SEEMS TO HAVE BEEN UNDERESTI-
MATED AS WELL BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS/OBS. SO WILL GO AHEAD AND GO
WITH SLIGHTLY FASTER ONSET OF PCPN TIMES WITH THIS 6Z TAF SET. HAD
CONSIDERED THE IDEA OF INCLUDING FZRA/SN/PL" FOR CXO/IAH DURING THE
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN TIMEFRAME. HOWEVER...DID DECIDE TO WAIT AS
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. 41

HGX considering frozen issues for Conroe/Bush IAH for the noonish timeframe, but forgoes it for now. It's still a changing situation.

[srainhoutx]

HGX has updated. Some changes ahead...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
443 AM CST WED FEB 9 2011

.DISCUSSION...
...ARCTIC FRONT TO BRING CHANCES FOR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TODAY AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S TONIGHT...


A VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS SE TX FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND BE OFF THE COAST BEFORE NOON.
WEATHER HAZARDS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS INCLUDE A WINTER
WEATHER AND WIND ADVISORIES TODAY...AND A HARD FREEZE WARNING
TONIGHT. THE NAM12 WAS LINING UP VERY WELL WITH THE FRONT THIS
MORNING AND UTILIZED THE MODEL FOR THE FIRST FOUR PERIODS.

THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS LINED UP WELL WITH THE 00Z SOUNDINGS AT CRP
AND LCH. ALL SHOWED A VERY LARGE TEMPERATURE INVERSION AROUND 800
MB. LIGHT RAIN WAS OCCURRING UNDER THIS INVERSION OVER MUCH OF SE
AND S TX IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL QUICKLY FALL TO BELOW FREEZING AT THE SURFACE. THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR FOR AT LEAST A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD. THE
MODEL SOUNDING FORECASTS INDICATE A FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE PROFILE WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE FRONT. BECAUSE OF
THIS...DECIDED TO BREAK APART THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
TODAY WITH THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING AT
8 AM AND THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF AT NOON. THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY END FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING AROUND MID
AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE NEXT BIG ITEM. THESE WILL LIKELY FALL
INTO THE 20S OVER MOST INLAND AREAS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD.
THE MOS GUIDANCE HAS TRIED TO CATCH UP TO THIS IDEA...BUT FOUND
THAT THE RAW TEMPERATURE GRIDS FROM THE NAM12 WERE REFLECTING THE
SITUATION BETTER THIS MORNING. THESE MAY EVEN BE A BIT TOO WARM.
TONIGHT SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS CLL...MADISONVILLE...AND CROCKETT
MAY EVEN SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS. THURSDAY WILL BE A VERY
CHILLY DAY WHILE THURSDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE AS COLD AS TONIGHT.

A SLOW WARM UP WILL BEGIN POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. THE MODELS
SHOW THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BEGINS TO MODIFY WHILE STILL OVER
THE AREA. ONSHORE WINDS RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL HELP WITH
THE WARM UP.

[Mr. T]

Winter weather advisory issued for Harris. Freezing rain entered into the grids for Harris County, including Houston

I really doubt we see much freezing drizzle or light freezing rain, if anything, but a curious sight to see I guess.

[srainhoutx]

Hard Freeze Warning issued for all of SE TX.

[srainhoutx]

Appears all of HGX forecast area under a Winter Weather Advisory except for Galveston and Chambers County. That's a mighty big change.

[Mr. T]

Again, doubt we see much, but to have even the slightest chance of freezing rain in the forecast again is pretty amazing...

Today...Cloudy. Rain in the morning...then a chance of rain in the afternoon. A chance of light freezing rain in the afternoon. Breezy...cooler. Highs in the upper 40s. Temperature falling into the upper 20s in the afternoon. Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph in the morning becoming north and increasing to 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent in the morning decreasing to 40 percent in the afternoon. Lowest wind chill readings 8 to 18 in the afternoon.

Tonight...Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Breezy. Much colder. Lows in the lower 20s. North winds 15 to 25 mph.

Thursday...Partly cloudy until late afternoon then becoming mostly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s. North winds 10 to 15 mph. Lowest wind chill readings 8 to 18 in the morning.

Thursday Night...Clear. Lows in the lower 20s. North winds 5 to 10 mph.

[srainhoutx]

The front is just N and W of DT Austin. It is running a bit ahead of schedule. I guess we should have known changes were coming with the Aviation update just before mid night. Hopefully there wont be much if any freezing precip issues, but I suspect some folks will be a bit surprised as the information gets out this morning.

[Mr. T]

522 AM CST WED FEB 9 2011

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST
THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL TO BELOW FREEZING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY FREEZE ON CONTACT WITH THE SURFACE. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS
FOR ICE TO FORM...MAINLY ON ELEVATED ROADWAYS INCLUDING BRIDGES
AND OVERPASSES. ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S.
ACCOMPANYING THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE NORTH WINDS GUSTING
BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. THIS WIND AND TEMPERATURE COMBINATION WILL
CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. SOME LOCATIONS
MAY EVEN EXPERIENCE WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.