sleetstorm wrote:After we get a few strong arctic cold fronts that deliver several days and nights worth of freezing or subfreezing weather we get a warm up which, needles to say, can easily perplex plants into thinking that the season of Spring has arrived only to have yet another good round or two of more freezing or subfreezing temperatures for x-number of days and nights and that can be devastating on them by setting them back anywhere from several days to a few weeks if not longer.
Actually, that's all fine with me! I am allergic to everything that is green and grows, so the longer we can hold off pollen season the better for me.
Another great night of snow making. Got about a foot last night. Luckily kids will have time to play in it this morning. Sitting at 22 here west of beaumont.
randybpt wrote:Another great night of snow making. Got about a foot last night. Luckily kids will have time to play in it this morning. Sitting at 22 here west of beaumont.
Soon all those cold days and nights will be a distant memory...
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
206 PM EST FRI FEB 11 2011
VALID 12Z MON FEB 14 2011 - 12Z FRI FEB 18 2011
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REASONABLE AGREE IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
FLOW PATTERN FROM THE ERN PACIFIC ACROSS NORTH AMERICA OVER THE
NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DESPITE A BROAD PATTERN TRANSITION FROM NEAR
ZONAL SHORT RANGE FLOW TO QUITE AMPLIFIED FLOW NEXT WEEK. IN
GENERAL THE 00 UTC ECMWF/CANADIAN/NOGAPS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT 00
UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLES OFFER A MORE AMPLIFIED AND LESS PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN THAN RECENT GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES/NAEFS.
FINAL HPC GUIDANCE PROGS REMAIN PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF
70% 00 UTC ECMWF AND A 30% COMBINATION OF GFS/ECMWF/NAEFS
ENSEMBLES DAYS 4-7 TUE-FRI. THE MAIN EFFECTS FROM THE INCLUSION
OF ENSEMBLE DATA WAS TO LIMIT PATTERN AMPLIFICATION SLIGHTLY FROM
THE 00 UTC ECMWF THAT...WHILE SEEMINGLY PLAUSIBLE CONSIDERING THE
STRENGTH OF BUILDING UOPSTREAM RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS THE ERN
PACIFIC...DOES FALL TOO NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE FULL ENVELOPE OF
SOLUTIONS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE NORMAL OVERALL...BUT
LINGERING UNCERTAINTY CAN BE ATTRIBUTED TO THE FACT THAT THIS IS A
PATTERN CHANGE VERSUS HAVING SET AMBIENT FEATURES...AS EVIDENCED
FROM RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY ISSUES. ENSEMBLES ALSO PROVIDE SOME
SMOOTHING OF LESS PREDICTABLE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES AND
INTERACTIONS...ESPECIALLY WITH SPECIFICS OF SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS/FRONTOGENESIS EMINATING ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE NEXT
WEEK DEPENDENT UPON RESPONSE TO THE MAGNITUDE OF HEIGHT FALLS
PROGRESSING FROM THE HIGHLY UPSETTLED WRN US MID-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. 12 UTC GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED FAVORABLY WITH OUR DAYS 4-7
BLEND FOR THE MOST PART SO HPC CONTINUITY REMAINS GOOD.
THE WEATHER PATTERN IS HEADING TO ONE WITH HIGHLY UNSETTLED AND
COOL/WET CONDITIONS SPREAD ACROSS THE WRN US AND SIGNIFICANT
WARMING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN US IN A PATTERN WITH
MINIMAL COLD AIR SOURCE EVEN IN THE WAKE OF FRONTS. WARM SECTORS
WITH INDEED BE THAT. AN INTERESTING TIDBIT IS THAT MEDIUM RANGE
MAX TEMPS NEXT WEEK WILL LIKELY BE MORE THAN 100 DEGREES WARMER
FOR PLACES IN OKLAHOMA THAT EXPERIENCED THE RECORD FRIGID MIN
TEMPS YESTERDAY DOWNWARD TO AROUND -30F.
CISCO/SCHICHTEL
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TX coastal waters are even cooler than last year, so we should prepare for an extended period of low clouds, drizzle and fog once deep Gulf flow resumes. This may kill the severe storm season, as it did last spring.
wxman57 wrote:TX coastal waters are even cooler than last year, so we should prepare for an extended period of low clouds, drizzle and fog once deep Gulf flow resumes. This may kill the severe storm season, as it did last spring.
I remember the Winter of 1988-89 having a bunch of freezes, on in February and March. The spring of 1989 had severe weather events, notably May 1989.
wxman57 wrote:TX coastal waters are even cooler than last year, so we should prepare for an extended period of low clouds, drizzle and fog once deep Gulf flow resumes. This may kill the severe storm season, as it did last spring.
Yep. I agree. Those Bay/Coastal water temps in the 40's are certainly a clear signal for many a foggy day ahead as we head toward end February.
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Last night was probably the last snow making night of year. I have had my snow maker for 6 years and this year was the.most I could use it. Few years I never used it once.
randybpt wrote:Last night was probably the last snow making night of year. I have had my snow maker for 6 years and this year was the.most I could use it. Few years I never used it once.
The link you posted to the Facebook pics earlier is dead. Any pics from today?
And speaking of dead, where did everyone go? Winter ends and everyone leaves...
randybpt wrote:Last night was probably the last snow making night of year. I have had my snow maker for 6 years and this year was the.most I could use it. Few years I never used it once.
The link you posted to the Facebook pics earlier is dead. Any pics from today?
And speaking of dead, where did everyone go? Winter ends and everyone leaves...
Pshh no one cares about 50 degree temps.
Also Randy if you send me a link (and change your privacy settings so a guest can view the pics) I will save them and post them here for everyone to see.
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randybpt wrote:Last night was probably the last snow making night of year. I have had my snow maker for 6 years and this year was the.most I could use it. Few years I never used it once.
The link you posted to the Facebook pics earlier is dead. Any pics from today?
And speaking of dead, where did everyone go? Winter ends and everyone leaves...
Pshh no one cares about 50 degree temps.
Also Randy if you send me a link (and change your privacy settings so a guest can view the pics) I will save them and post them here for everyone to see.
one of the last times I logged in it made me jump thru hoops to log on, said I logged too many times - maybe that has ppl not posting?
also, it doesn't feel like 50 degrees.. when 50 is our low, I'll be happier
unome wrote:
one of the last times I logged in it made me jump thru hoops to log on, said I logged too many times - maybe that has ppl not posting?
also, it doesn't feel like 50 degrees.. when 50 is our low, I'll be happier
That issue was passed along to the IT folks yesterday, as an FYI.
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unome wrote:
one of the last times I logged in it made me jump thru hoops to log on, said I logged too many times - maybe that has ppl not posting?
also, it doesn't feel like 50 degrees.. when 50 is our low, I'll be happier
That issue was passed along to the IT folks yesterday, as an FYI.
Hmm had the same issue but I thought it was because I was logging on my phone while my computer was still logged on. Unome were you trying to do the same?
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unome wrote:
one of the last times I logged in it made me jump thru hoops to log on, said I logged too many times - maybe that has ppl not posting?
also, it doesn't feel like 50 degrees.. when 50 is our low, I'll be happier
That issue was passed along to the IT folks yesterday, as an FYI.
Hmm had the same issue but I thought it was because I was logging on my phone while my computer was still logged on. Unome were you trying to do the same?
I made a change in settings. Hopefully that will ease the pain for those having issues.
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Member: National Weather Association
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saw Impact Weather Winter Forecast and they pretty much nailed it. I didnt make the webinar but one of my co-workers did and sent me the deck....interesting stuff. also a little bit of 2011 Hurricane Season teasers in it.......will be that time again soon. I am going to try to make this years seminar.....
Paul, I will be attending the ImpactWeather hurricane seminar this year and to meet an old friend from the GoPbi and early S2K years who now works for ImpactWeather as of last year. The 2011 season will be here before we know it. The March hurricane forecast from CSU will of interest.
Paul wrote:saw Impact Weather Winter Forecast and they pretty much nailed it. I didnt make the webinar but one of my co-workers did and sent me the deck....interesting stuff. also a little bit of 2011 Hurricane Season teasers in it.......will be that time again soon. I am going to try to make this years seminar.....
I heard from someone I know over there that Phil Klotzbach will be back to talk about the upcoming season. Other speakers include Chris Landsea (NHC) and Michael Black of HRD. Dr. Landsea will be presenting some results from the reanalysis project and on hurricane impact trends. Michael Black will cover what's new as far as unmanned recon vehicles (UAVs). I'm sure they'll have their website updated with all the info soon. It's May 24th at the Hobby Hilton. (http://www.hurricaneseminar.com).
I guess we should carry this conversation over to the hurricane thread. But weather is so boring here now with winter over and all.
when 50 is our low, I'll be happier 
