December 2024
December could be interesting. I’m not sure much about mid to late December, but the beginning of December (as of right now) looks to flip the script from our current boring weather pattern we’ve had for most of the past few months.
Just hoping for Fall this Winter. As long as it's not Summer.
If I see 90° in December, I’m definitely suing.
Rain should return during the first week of the month.
Yep, we need it. My part of southeast TX doesn’t get as much rain as Houston and points north and east of there. We’re still in a moderate drought out here.
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Stratton20
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Models do show a chilly cold rain as the cold air settles in, dont expect much in the way of impressive accumulations, probably just some light showers
No rain in my 7 day forecast.
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 25, 2024 11:20 pm Models do show a chilly cold rain as the cold air settles in, dont expect much in the way of impressive accumulations, probably just some light showers
^ Most of that is in GFS fantasy land.
The Euro is jumping off the eastern centric wave of cold to a more southern direction. I'm here for it, but am skeptical.
The Euro is jumping off the eastern centric wave of cold to a more southern direction. I'm here for it, but am skeptical.
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Most of the rain looks offshore in the 15 day QPF Euro forecast.
The Ensembles are agreeing.
The Ensembles are agreeing.
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^A coastal low is developing early next week. Houston might get some rain. CLL? Maybe a coin flip. GFS has warmer weather by mid-next week. Mild to seasonal mid next week... after the 5-6 days of cool weather beginning tomorrow.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Wed Nov 27, 2024 11:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
101
FXUS64 KHGX 271141
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
541 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 218 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024
Southeasterly flow has returned to the region, and with it increased
temperatures and moisture. The high temperatures this afternoon will
be rising into the low to mid 80s across the region - which is about
15 degrees above normal and may reach record high temperatures at a
couple of our climate sites.
The record high temperatures today are:
City of Houston - 84, last set in 1989
Houston-Hobby - 86, last set in 1973
City of Galveston - 81, last set in 2020
City of College Station - 87, last set in 1922
Palacios - 81, last set in 2003
This increased heat and humidity will not last long as a cold front
is expected to move through the region tonight through Thursday
morning ushering in the coldest temperatures of the season yet. The
front will be pushing through the Piney Woods/Bryan-College Station
area between 10pm and 1am tonight, through the I-10 corridor between
2am and 5am, then off the coast by 5-7am. As the front moves through
the northern parts of the region there will not be any showers
popping up, but some some scattered light showers may develop as the
front moves through the coast early Thursday morning. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the upper 40s to low 50s north and
west of Huntsville, mid to upper 50s along the I-10 corridor, and
then low 60s at the coast. We will not be warming up too much during
the day on Thursday with high temperatures in the low to mid 60s for
much of the area (though a tad cooler in the Piney Woods, and a tad
warmer at the coast). Breezy northerly winds on Thursday will make
it feel like its be in the 50s for most of the area as well.
Thursday night will be a taste of winter with most areas north of
the Houston Metro dropping into the mid to upper 30s. We may need to
issue our first Freeze products of the season for Houston County
Thursday night as it drops very close to 32 degrees. Wind chill
values will be dropping below freezing for most areas north of
Conroe. Areas along and south of I-10 will see low temperatures in
the low to mid 40s with the immediate coast staying near 50.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 218 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024
Cool, dry, and generally pleasant conditions will prevail
throughout the course of the weekend behind the Thanksgiving Day
cold front, with rainfall chances not expected to return to the
forecast until the early part of next week. A benign synoptic
pattern will dominate through Sunday as a broad area of high
pressure remains in place over the Central CONUS. With the center
of this high pressure system shifting to the south and no
significant cyclogenesis occuring to our west, the resultant
weakening of the surface pressure gradient should provide a
progressively lighter wind as the weekend goes on. Steady CAA
behind the front, along with clear overnight skies, will push lows
into the 30s for most locations along and north of the I-10
corridor through Monday. It`s possible that we will see a few
spotty areas reach below freezing, particularly in Houston &
Madison Counties, which may require a Freeze Warning. For
locations south of I-10, lows will generally remain in the 40s
(perhaps just above 50 along the coast). Daytime highs through the
weekend will sit in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Models continue to indicate the formation of a weak coastal trough
to our southwest towards the beginning of next week, and this
system will bring our next chance of rainfall by late Monday where
as it drifts upward along the Coastal Bend. Rain chances increase
further heading into Tuesday as the system pushes further
northward. This will be accompanied by a modest increase in
overnight lows as cloud cover increases and surface winds shift to
the east. While most of the region could very well see measurable
rainfall, rainfall amounts should generally be low (0.5 inches or
less) with this system.
Cady
FXUS64 KHGX 271141
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
541 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 218 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024
Southeasterly flow has returned to the region, and with it increased
temperatures and moisture. The high temperatures this afternoon will
be rising into the low to mid 80s across the region - which is about
15 degrees above normal and may reach record high temperatures at a
couple of our climate sites.
The record high temperatures today are:
City of Houston - 84, last set in 1989
Houston-Hobby - 86, last set in 1973
City of Galveston - 81, last set in 2020
City of College Station - 87, last set in 1922
Palacios - 81, last set in 2003
This increased heat and humidity will not last long as a cold front
is expected to move through the region tonight through Thursday
morning ushering in the coldest temperatures of the season yet. The
front will be pushing through the Piney Woods/Bryan-College Station
area between 10pm and 1am tonight, through the I-10 corridor between
2am and 5am, then off the coast by 5-7am. As the front moves through
the northern parts of the region there will not be any showers
popping up, but some some scattered light showers may develop as the
front moves through the coast early Thursday morning. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the upper 40s to low 50s north and
west of Huntsville, mid to upper 50s along the I-10 corridor, and
then low 60s at the coast. We will not be warming up too much during
the day on Thursday with high temperatures in the low to mid 60s for
much of the area (though a tad cooler in the Piney Woods, and a tad
warmer at the coast). Breezy northerly winds on Thursday will make
it feel like its be in the 50s for most of the area as well.
Thursday night will be a taste of winter with most areas north of
the Houston Metro dropping into the mid to upper 30s. We may need to
issue our first Freeze products of the season for Houston County
Thursday night as it drops very close to 32 degrees. Wind chill
values will be dropping below freezing for most areas north of
Conroe. Areas along and south of I-10 will see low temperatures in
the low to mid 40s with the immediate coast staying near 50.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 218 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024
Cool, dry, and generally pleasant conditions will prevail
throughout the course of the weekend behind the Thanksgiving Day
cold front, with rainfall chances not expected to return to the
forecast until the early part of next week. A benign synoptic
pattern will dominate through Sunday as a broad area of high
pressure remains in place over the Central CONUS. With the center
of this high pressure system shifting to the south and no
significant cyclogenesis occuring to our west, the resultant
weakening of the surface pressure gradient should provide a
progressively lighter wind as the weekend goes on. Steady CAA
behind the front, along with clear overnight skies, will push lows
into the 30s for most locations along and north of the I-10
corridor through Monday. It`s possible that we will see a few
spotty areas reach below freezing, particularly in Houston &
Madison Counties, which may require a Freeze Warning. For
locations south of I-10, lows will generally remain in the 40s
(perhaps just above 50 along the coast). Daytime highs through the
weekend will sit in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
Models continue to indicate the formation of a weak coastal trough
to our southwest towards the beginning of next week, and this
system will bring our next chance of rainfall by late Monday where
as it drifts upward along the Coastal Bend. Rain chances increase
further heading into Tuesday as the system pushes further
northward. This will be accompanied by a modest increase in
overnight lows as cloud cover increases and surface winds shift to
the east. While most of the region could very well see measurable
rainfall, rainfall amounts should generally be low (0.5 inches or
less) with this system.
Cady
+PNA is going to kill our chances for cold weather.
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