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So far things looks the same as they did a couple of days ago. The real colds temps stay far away from us.

The GFS, CMC, and Euro all have a decent rain event around here to kickoff December.

Biggerbyte for now, its still way too early for extreme cold, but i expect we are going to have some potent arctic fronts come down here as we progress more into winter, couple of different factors may lead to more persistent than usual Alaskan Ridging, I have a feeling this is going to be a more interesting winter compared to the last 2 winters which were duds

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 28, 2024 6:53 pm Biggerbyte for now, its still way too early for extreme cold, but i expect we are going to have some potent arctic fronts come down here as we progress more into winter, couple of different factors may lead to more persistent than usual Alaskan Ridging, I have a feeling this is going to be a more interesting winter compared to the last 2 winters which were duds

I have a feeling you’re right.

don wrote: ↑Sat Nov 30, 2024 7:52 pm610dprcp.new.gif

Yep! Been on this train for a while now. Others haven’t believed in it.

Im expecting a much colder 2nd half of december and into early january as the PNA goes negative, could also have a sub tropical jet with multiple troughs digging out to our west, cosgrove has a similar idea, its looking like the hudson bay vortex is going to be a permanent feature all winter , either way, I think we are going to have more frequent cold shots this winter

Today

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 01, 2024 11:38 am Im expecting a much colder 2nd half of december and into early january as the PNA goes negative, could also have a sub tropical jet with multiple troughs digging out to our west, cosgrove has a similar idea, its looking like the hudson bay vortex is going to be a permanent feature all winter , either way, I think we are going to have more frequent cold shots this winter

Hopefully it all doesn't go east

306
FXUS64 KHGX 021124
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
524 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 142 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2024

The synoptic upper air pattern will be dominated by a deep long wave
trough over E CONUS and a ridge over W CONUS. Though Texas will find
itself between the two features, we do think that weak ridging and a
modest increase in mid/upper pressure heights is likely over the
next two days. You`d think that would hint at a warm up until one
looks at the lower levels of the atmosphere. A strong ~1040MB sfc
high over the northern plains will push southeastward, finding
itself over SE CONUS by Tuesday. The sfc flow between the
southeastward building high pressure system and a developing low
near south Texas will result in continued ENE sfc flow. Therefore,
temperatures will likely remain at, or a little below, normal during
the short term. Temperatures this morning are mostly in the 30s
across the northern half of the CWA, while areas farther south are
in the 40s. Afternoon highs today are expected to be in the 60s once
again. Could reach 70 in a few spots, especially in our western /
southwestern counties. Expect another chilly night tonight.

Though ENE flow persists at the sfc on Tuesday, the flow aloft (~850
MB) will shift to a southeasterly regime, pooling Gulf moisture
northward. This should be noticed via increased cloud cover from
south to north. There may also be a few rain showers at the coast.
But the best chance of rain on Tuesday is expected to remain
offshore. Increased cloud cover may keep temperatures a little
cooler on Tuesday. But we are still forecasting highs in the 60s. By
Tuesday night, the low near south Texas is expected to push
northward, bringing a better chance of rain overnight and into
Wednesday. But the low is mostly in the long term meteorologist`s
jurisdiction. So I`ll give him the honor of talking about the mid-
week rain chances.

Self

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 142 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2024

A warm front will be moving its way up through SE Texas early
Wednesday morning ushering in high moisture and above normal
temperatures. A combination of the high PWATs, a coastal trough
moving up the western Gulf, and passing upper level disturbances
will lead to a rather wet pattern Wednesday through the weekend. As
of right now, Wednesday into Thursday are looking to be one of the
wetter days of the Long Term as scattered to widespread showers and
isolated thunderstorms develop over the area as a weak shortwave
enhances precipitation near that coastal low. Expect up to around
0.5-2" of rain through Thursday with isolated higher amounts
possible near any training lines of storms. Some isolated ponding or
street flooding will be possible in areas of poor drainage, but this
will mostly be a welcome dosage of rain to abate drought expansion.
There may be a lull in the shower activity late Thursday into Friday
*if* a weak cold front can push down through the area. It is
possible this front remains north of the region leading to continued
scattered showers and storms. Unsettled weather is expected to
persist into the weekend as a larger upper level low swings through
the Southern Plains. There is uncertainty on the timing of this
system (could be as early as Sunday morning, or as late as Monday
afternoon), so don`t want to get into any specifics just yet - just
don`t be misplacing your umbrellas just yet.

Temperatures on Wednesday will be running around 5-10 degrees warmer
compared to Tuesday thanks to the passage of the warm front with
high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s and lows upper 50s to
low 60s. These temperatures will continue through at least Thursday,
but then uncertainty with the southern extend of that weak cold
front leads to uncertainty in the temperatures on Friday. It will
either be a continuation of the above normal temperatures seen on
Wednesday and Thursday, or drop to near seasonal with highs in the
low to mid 60s and lows in the upper 40s to low 50s. Nevertheless,
the above normal temperatures are expected to return over the
weekend as southerly flow increases ahead of that approaching upper
level low.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 522 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2024

VFR cigs and vis to prevail through the TAF period. Winds are
expected to pick up from the east to east-northeast later this
morning into the afternoon. By the evening, winds are expected to
become light and variable. Winds are then forecast to increase
from the southeast by tomorrow morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 142 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2024

Small craft in the Gulf waters should continue to exercise caution
through tonight as northeasterly winds of around 15-20kt persist
with seas around 3-6ft. The winds and seas are expected to increase
to around 20-25kt after sunrise, so the Small Craft Advisory will
remain in effect and continue through tonight. The SCA will likely
be extended through Wednesday as seas rise to 5-8ft and winds remain
elevated (with gusts to 30kt possible in the offshore waters). This
increase in winds and seas is thanks to an approaching coastal
trough. There will also be increased chances for showers and
thunderstorms beginning as early as Sunday night and continuing
through the week. Winds will gradually shift from northeasterly
through Monday, to easterly then southerly through midweek.
Additional disturbances are expected through the end of the week
continuing the unsettled weather.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 68 40 65 51 / 0 0 10 20
Houston (IAH) 67 44 65 53 / 0 0 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 66 56 66 61 / 0 10 10 30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for
GMZ330.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 AM CST early this
morning for GMZ350-370.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ350-370.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for
GMZ355-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Fowler

Brazoriatx979 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 02, 2024 8:17 am

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sun Dec 01, 2024 11:38 am Im expecting a much colder 2nd half of december and into early january as the PNA goes negative, could also have a sub tropical jet with multiple troughs digging out to our west, cosgrove has a similar idea, its looking like the hudson bay vortex is going to be a permanent feature all winter , either way, I think we are going to have more frequent cold shots this winter

Hopefully it all doesn't go east

We need a neutral PNA.

Cpv17 PNA looks to go negative, but not extreme negative, CMC has the right idea

Mild and a bit unsettled to the middle of the month.

Euro-AI brings some Artic air heading toward Texas on the 17th...but they stand alone for now. The CMC wintry mischief has been removed in the newest runs.

Everything else is snoresville.

DoctorMu no it hasnt, the 12z CMC has a winter storm across the state, it also has arctic air as well

12z EPS has a signal for some wintry mischief

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2024

VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF period,
with E/NE winds remaining around 10 knots through the early
evening. Light winds redevelop overnight, with a few high clouds
possible. Moderate E winds develop tomorrow, with rain chances
increasing tomorrow night as a system moves up the TX coast
(beyond the current TAF period).

Cady

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Dec 02, 2024 1:02 pm DoctorMu no it hasnt, the 12z CMC has a winter storm across the state, it also has arctic air as well

I see it on the 12z run, west of I-35. The other models shift the cold east again.

CMC did nail the 2021 2nd winter storm (we had 2 in CLL: Jan, Feb).

Don would see one heckuva ice storm. We're a long way off.

936
FXUS64 KHGX 022048
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
248 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 228 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2024

Relatively benign conditions will prevail in the immediate term-
with hints of the upcoming pattern change beginning to arrive on
Tuesday night. For now, we continue to experience mild and dry
weather with the latest surface observations (2 PM CST) showing
temperatures in the mid 60s across the area. With only a few high
clouds remaining in place overnight, we should once again see
fairly efficient cooling and lows in the upper 30s to 40s across
most of SE TX.

A pattern shift begins to develop on Tuesday that will set us up
for an extended period of wet weather (see Long Term section for
details). As surface high pressure over the Central Plains shifts
to the east, we will gradually develop an east to east-southeast
surface flow that will work to increase low-level moisture heading
into Tuesday evening. While this occurs, a weak coastal low will
continue to work its way up the Coastal Bend and towards our area.
This system will increase shower and storm activity near the coast
by Tuesday night, with showers and storms expanding further inland
during the early hours of Wednesday morning. While highs tomorrow
should continue to sit in the upper 60s, expanded cloud cover and
warm advection by tomorrow night will push nighttime lows into the
upper 40s to mid 50s inland and near 60 for the barrier islands.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2024

Wet weather can be expected mid week onwards as coastal trough moves
onshore early Wednesday morning, lifting north as a warm front. PWs
will rise to 1.4-1.6", exceeding the 90th climatological percentile
for this time of the year. A weak LLJ around 30 knots develops
overhead as the gradient tightens in response to a deepening surface
low over Ontario, which should supplement lift in conjuction with
isentropic lifting and shortwave energy overhead. Forecast soundings
show deep saturation, aside from a slight dry layer in the mid
levels, and small amounts of instability. Storm motion will be fast,
but precipitation efficiency should be high. Still, soils remain
mostly dry throughout SE Texas, enough to limit runoff and largely
mitigate flooding issues.

Average 24hr rainfall totals for Wednesday should range from 0.5-2"
across SE Texas, with the the largest amounts expected east of a
line from Crockett to Palacios. Higher totals will be possible, but
the chance of rainfall exceeding 3" at any given point remains low
(<10%). Once again, conditions like these are a common occurrence in
SE Texas, and often result in low impacts if any, such as ponding on
roadways and minor street flooding in urban areas with poor drainage.

The aforementioned surface low and associated upper level trough
should track E/NE through Quebec/the Northeast CONUS on Thursday.
Surface high pressure in it`s wake is progged to push a weak,
backdoor cold front into SE Texas, forcing the warm front offshore
and bringing a brief lull in rainfall Thursday afternoon/early
Friday morning. Model/Ensemble spread and thus uncertainty see a
noticeable rise beyond this point in the forecast. Regardless, the
broad consensus of guidance indicates that the surface high will
slide eastward through the Tennessee/Ohio Valley Friday afternoon,
allowing moisture and thus rain chances to rise again from SW to
N/NE. At the same time, another upper level trough will dig into
portions of Baja California/Southwest/Southern Plains. This
disturbance is progged to bring additional showers/storms throughout
the weekend. While some individual models suggest that this system
could push another front/boundary into the area during this time
frame, the bulk of LREF ensemble members suggest that the next
substantial cold front and drier weather won`t arrive till next week
(Maybe around Monday/Tuesday.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1145 AM CST Mon Dec 2 2024

VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF period,
with E/NE winds remaining around 10 knots through the early
evening. Light winds redevelop overnight, with a few high clouds
possible. Moderate E winds develop tomorrow, with rain chances
increasing tomorrow night as a system moves up the TX coast
(beyond the current TAF period).

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 228 PM CST Mon Dec 2 2024

Increasing winds of 15 to 25 knots and rising seas of 4 to 8 feet
will necessitate caution flags and Small Craft Advisories through
mid week. Rain chances quickly increase and winds veer southeasterly
Wednesday morning as a coastal trough/warm front lifts onshore.
Moist gulf air moving over cooler shelf/bay waters could allow for
patchy sea fog to develop on Wednesday, though stronger winds will
likely prevent it from becoming dense, if any forms. A weak cold
front may push the warm front off the coast on Thursday, though
scattered showers/storms should continue through the end of the work
week.

03 &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 39 67 51 67 / 0 0 20 70
Houston (IAH) 43 66 52 70 / 0 10 20 80
Galveston (GLS) 56 66 61 73 / 0 10 30 70

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Tuesday afternoon
for GMZ330.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ350-370.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for
GMZ355-375.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ355-
375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...03

^Looks like I wrote it. lol. It would be interesting to see the CMC fantasy mixed precip. storm come to fruition in the long, long term.