EPAC Hurricane Season 2011: Kenneth Quickly Weakening

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
200 AM PDT WED JUN 08 2011

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ADRIAN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS
MORNING...WITH INCREASING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND AN OUTER BAND OVER
THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT
FROM SAB AND 45 KT FROM TAFB...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
INCREASED TO 50 KT. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE AND POOR ELSEWHERE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/4. ADRIAN IS
CURRENTLY IN A COL REGION NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH OF ADRIAN
DURING THE NEXT 48 HR. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION WOULD ALLOW THE
CYCLONE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 24 H OR
SO...FOLLOWED BY A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. WHILE GENERALLY
AGREEING WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN
THE GUIDANCE. THE GFDL...HWRF...NOGAPS...AND FLORIDA STATE
SUPERENSEMBLE ARE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND
BRING ADRIAN NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO BEFORE TURNING IT PARALLEL TO
THE COAST. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET KEEP THE STORM FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE
SOUTH OF...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED MAINLY ON THE INITIAL
POSITION...AND LIKE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IT LIES TO THE LEFT OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

ADRIAN IS IN A LIGHT VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF NEAR 30C...AND THIS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN THE CASE
FOR THE NEXT 24-36 H. THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX OF THE SHIPS
MODEL SHOWS AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF 30 KT OF STRENGTHENING DURING
THE NEXT 24 H...AND A 77 PERCENT CHANCE OF 40 KT OF STRENGTHENING.
A NEGATIVE FACTOR CONTINUES TO BE DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF THE
STORM...WHICH THE SHIPS MODEL SUGGEST COULD AFFECT THE SYSTEM AFTER
24 H. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING FOR
THE FIRST 24 H...FOLLOWED BY A SLOWER STRENGTHENING RATE FROM 24-48
H IN ANTICIPATION OF DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER EDGE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
AFTER 48 H...DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE A
GRADUAL WEAKENING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 12.0N 100.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 12.6N 101.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 13.4N 102.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 14.1N 103.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 14.7N 104.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 15.5N 106.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 16.5N 108.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 17.5N 110.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
1100 AM PDT WED JUN 08 2011

...ADRIAN ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 101.2W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM ACAPULCO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.2 WEST. ADRIAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...13 KM/H. A GENERAL
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF ADRIAN IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF MEXICO...HOWEVER ANY
DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE FORECAST TRACK COULD BRING TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS TO THE COAST WITHIN THE WATCH AREA TOMORROW AND
FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...AND ADRIAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY ADRIAN WILL BEGIN AFFECTING A PORTION OF
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. THESE SWELLS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ADRIAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
500 PM PDT WED JUN 08 2011

...ADRIAN BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2011 EASTERN NORTH
PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 102.0W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

[srainhoutx]

Adrian is now a CAT 3 Hurricane...

[srainhoutx]

HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012011
200 PM PDT THU JUN 09 2011

DURING MOST OF THE DAY...ADRIAN HAS MAINTAINED A VERY DISTINCT EYE
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WRAPPED BY A
CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND. RECENTLY...THE CONVECTIVE BAND
HAS WEAKENED...AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BEGINNING TO RESEMBLE AN
ANNULAR HURRICANE WITH A LARGE EYE AND A CDO. THE OUTFLOW CONTINUES
TO BE WELL ESTABLISHED MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 100 KNOTS.

THE HURRICANE HAS THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE...BUT
SINCE ADRIAN IS BECOMING ANNULAR...IT WILL PROBABLY FLUCTUATE
LITTLE IN INTENSITY AND WILL NOT WEAKEN UNTIL THE CIRCULATION
BECOMES WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN STABLE AIR AND COOLER WATERS IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ADRIAN CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT
8 KNOTS...TRAPPED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A RATHER STRONG MID-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THE
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EXPANDING FARTHER
WESTWARD BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD
FAVOR A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF THE HURRICANE FOR THE
NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. ADRIAN COULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST AS IT
WEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE RELIABLE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM EARLIER RUNS
AND CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AWAY FROM
THE COAST OF MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 14.4N 104.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 14.7N 106.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 15.0N 107.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 15.5N 109.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 15.8N 110.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 16.5N 112.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 17.0N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 18.5N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[srainhoutx]

The 00Z GFS and Canadian as well as the Euro (albeit weak) develop Beatriz next weekend as the Kelvin wave moves across.

[srainhoutx]

Virtaully all the models are onboard with TC genesis near the Gulf of Tehuantepec later this week into the weekend at this time. The ensembles also suggest Beatiz will form as well.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUN 14 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN ASSOCATION
WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES LITTLE.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT WED JUN 15 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED
SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTEND FROM CENTRAL AMERICA WESTWARD
FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUN 16 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED
MILES TO THE SOUTH OF GUATEMALA AND SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. ALTHOUGH
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT
LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT BEGINS TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[srainhoutx]

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[srainhoutx]

18Z...

[srainhoutx]

The Hurricane models are at odds in the 42 hour timeframe. I suspect the GFDL is more correct than the HWRF. That model has preformed less than prefect the past couple of years...

[srainhoutx]

I'd watch this feature. My hunch is that may well be a key player regarding any rain chance for the Gulf region with a tropical connection.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI JUN 17 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE GULF OF
TEHUANTEPEC HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO THROUGH SUNDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[srainhoutx]

Models suggest a system hugging the MX Coast...

[srainhoutx]

Microwave imagery suggests things are slowly coming together for 92E. The southern semi circle still lacks deep convection, but the NHC states a depression may form in the next 24 hours or so. It still appears to be a sloppy system, but that may enhance rain chances across the Western Gulf region as we move ahead...

[srainhoutx]

92E is looking a bit better this evening. No surprise the NHC raised percentage a notch...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT SAT JUN 18 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SATELLITE DATA FROM EARLIER TODAY INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT 325 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS A LITTLE BIT MORE CONCENTRATED
NEAR THE CENTER...AND ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN THE
FORMATION OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR ON SUNDAY. THERE IS
A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR 10 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT SUN JUN 19 2011

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 250
MILES SOUTH OF ACAPULCO MEXICO...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS LOW BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
COULD BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS TO THE REGION DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[srainhoutx]

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[srainhoutx]

Possible RECON mission tasked for 02E...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0945 AM EDT SUN 19 JUNE 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 20/1100Z TO 21/1100Z JUNE 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-019

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE FIX NEAR
18.4N 104.1W AT 21/1200Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
EC