TS Bret: Dissipated Over N. Atlantic

[srainhoutx]

BEGIN
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invest_al982011.invest
FSTDA
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201107161734
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INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 98, 2011, DB, O, 2011071618, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL982011
AL, 98, 2011071518, , BEST, 0, 313N, 804W, 20, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011071600, , BEST, 0, 310N, 800W, 20, 1015, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011071606, , BEST, 0, 307N, 797W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011071612, , BEST, 0, 304N, 794W, 20, 1014, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 98, 2011071618, , BEST, 0, 300N, 791W, 20, 1014, DB, 34, NEQ,

[srainhoutx]

It will be interesting to see just how this evolves. A weaker disturbance heading S and then across Florida into the Gulf could make for some excitement, but the more favored solution will likely be for it to move out to the NE. We will see...

[Ptarmigan]

If 98L develops, it could become Bret. I know storms in the past have formed off the east coast of Florida and even Carolinas and hit Texas.

Hurricane #3 1934


Hurricane #2 1940

[TexasBreeze]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php ... Z&loop=yes

This little blob off Fl has convection and a little spin to it too. Maybe a few banding features too?

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE
SOUTH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART

[srainhoutx]

I am a bit more impressed this morning as the convection has sustained its self overnight. Pressures are still rather high (1014mb) and any development should be rather slow, but the warm waters off the Coast of Florida do raise an eyebrow and if 98L continues this southward push, things could become a bit more interesting. Snip from NWS Key West...


SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS INDICATE THAT THIS FEATURE
IS CURRENTLY SINKING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE AGREES THAT THIS
TROUGH WILL KEEP THE USUAL ATLANTIC RIDGE ABSENT ACROSS FLORIDA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES REMAIN
IN THE MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE. THE ECMWF AND
PARTICULARLY THE NAM ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE...BRINGING THE LOWER LEVEL
CIRCULATION AND EVEN A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MEANWHILE..THE GFS
KEEPS A WEAKER FEATURE BETWEEN CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WASHES IT OUT NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY.
UNCERTAINTY IS QUITE HIGH WITH THIS FEATURE...WHICH IS BEING
MONITORED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER BUT CURRENTLY HAS ONLY A
LOW CHANCE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WILL
FAVOR THE WEAKER GFS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...IN LINE WITH THE
LATEST MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION.

[srainhoutx]

12Z...

[wxman57]

SFC obs and satellite indicate a TD has already formed. I fully expect an upgrade this afternoon. Not sure about track/intensity. Models didn't initialize it well. Could move west into the Gulf eventually, or it could track off to the northeast in a few days. Depending upon interaction with Florida, it could get stronger than initial intensity models indicate, as those models probably see the very strong shear up around 30 N that may not be impacting the smallish low. I'll be heading in to the office in a few hours to be there for the likely upgrade.

[Andrew]

Still there seems to be some vertical shear issues as the storm doesn't seem to be completely stacked. Looking a lot better and convection bursts around the LLC. As for track we need to remember that models can have a hard time forecasting the track of a storm when there isn't really a define center to look at. These next couple of model runs should be more accurate especially with a more defined system.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html

[srainhoutx]

RECON mission for today should depart Keesler AFB shortly. RECON schedule for tomorrow and beyond...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1215 PM EDT SUN 17 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z JULY 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-047

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 18/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0302A CYCLONE
C. 18/1500Z
D. 28.0N 79.5W
E. 18/1700Z TO 18/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 19/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0402A CYCLONE
C. 19/0300Z
D. 28.5N 79.5W
E. 19/0500Z TO 19/1100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 12-HRLY
FIXES WHILE SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
3. REMARK: FLIGHT SCHEDULED FOR 18/1800Z WILL CONVERT TO AN
LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION IF THE FLIGHT SCHEDULED FOR
17/0600Z IS CANCELLED.

[wxman57]

There's no question at all that an LLC exists, it's clearly shown by surface obs and WINDSAT estimates. The only question as to whether or not to upgrade will be is the convection strong enough near the center. I'd like to see some consistency regarding what qualifies for upgrading to a depression vs. what should be downgraded below TD strength this year. A system like this would never be declared a remnant low if it had been a TS. I do think it meets the qualifications for upgrading to a TD. Center is tucked underneath the convection, though the convection could be a bit stronger. Of course, if the convection was stronger then it may be a TS not a TD.

Models are in better agreement now on a slow track out to the NE in a few days.

[srainhoutx]

RECON data suggests a TD and possibly a TS has formed. We will see...

[srainhoutx]

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[desiredwxgd]

Steve, or anyone that might know the answer. What is the site where recon data can be retrieved? I can't remember. I had it book marked but not sure why I deleted it. Thanks.

[srainhoutx]

Steve, or anyone that might know the answer. What is the site where recon data can be retrieved? I can't remember. I had it book marked but not sure why I deleted it. Thanks.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011
500 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 78.2W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS


FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.2 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND
LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION COULD PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2
TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

SURF...LOCALLY HIGH SURF CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG NORTH AND
WESTERN FACING BEACHES IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART

[Ptarmigan]

If TD2 did not develop sooner, it probably would of went into the Gulf of Mexico and give us rain we desperately need.

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BRET INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 17 2011

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS...BECOMES THE SECOND TROPICAL
STORM OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 78.1W
ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM NW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 145 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST. BRET IS
DRIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H...AND
LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...BRET COULD PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE EXTREME
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

SURF...LOCALLY HIGH SURF CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG NORTHERN
AND WESTERN FACING BEACHES IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THROUGH
TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BERG

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BRET INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011
800 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

...BRET DRIFTING NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 77.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.5 WEST. BRET IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF BRET WILL BEGIN MOVING AWAY FROM THE
NORTHWEST BAHAMAS LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...BRET COULD PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING OR IMMINENT IN THE
WARNING AREA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS
BRET BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

SURF...LOCALLY HIGH SURF CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG NORTHERN
AND WESTERN FACING BEACHES IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THROUGH TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/STEWART

[srainhoutx]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BRET ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022011
1100 AM EDT MON JUL 18 2011

...BRET MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF GREAT
ABACO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 77.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND THE ABACO ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BRET WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.3 WEST. BRET IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WILL TAKE THE CENTER OF BRET AWAY
FROM THE BAHAMAS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...BRET COULD PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF
THE WARNING AREA. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY
AS BRET BEGINS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.

SURF...LOCALLY HIGH SURF CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG NORTHERN
AND WESTERN FACING BEACHES IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS THROUGH TODAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH