EX TC Don- Inland near Baffin Bay "Don Is Dead"

[rnmm]

Double that 40% and it's closer to reality.

So wxman57 is saying 80%?

No, 79.5%

TOO FUNNY!!!

[ticka1]

Double that 40% and it's closer to reality.

So wxman57 is saying 80%?

No, 79.5%

wxman you just made me LOL.....

Get some sleep...i have a feeling 90L will still be here in the morning!

you know 79.5%

[singlemom]

No, 79.5%

I think that should be a new NHC designation.

[sleetstorm]

A few of those clusters of tropical thunderstorms have very cold cloud tops that look like they are in the in the -80ºF to -100ºF range.

[weatherguy425]

An even further shift to the east? But there appears to be more of a spread. All I know is that I'm hoping a Cuba/ Yucatan land interaction can broaden this sucker out! The last thing we need on the Northeast side of Houston is for the southwest side to get dumped on!



http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early1.png

[srainhoutx]

Last post tonight for me. There are hints of some shear across the NE Gulf that may inhibit development in the near term. The worrisome issue is the slow movement. I suspect the night crew will be active in the days ahead...

[Ptarmigan]

Most models have 90L as a tropical storm, while SHIP has it as a Category 1 hurricane.

[Snowman]

could the ridge of high pressure really weaken enough to send this storm into Louisiana?
I don't think so.
I really hope it doesn't either. We need this rain so badly we can use a tropical storm or weak hurricane.

[rnmm]

Up to 70%


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING
ABOUT 125 MILES EAST OF CANCUN MEXICO. IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE...
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

[Andrew]

Well well well looks like we have a developing system right in front of us. Convection has been persistent around the MLC and a LLC looks to have, or be developing as I write this. By tomorrow when recon flies in we should have a TD or TS. With the system being so small it won't take much for it to get going once it gets its act together a little more. What may be an inhibiting factor for this system though is the shear and lack of outflow. Those two things could keep this system in check but my personal preference is to not trust the models in intensity especially at this stage in development. With the system being so small right now models do not seem to have a good grasp on the situation. The 00z GFDL takes this storm on a NW track immediately (when it is heading WNW right now) right through Galveston. NOGAPS takes this system right into Galveston also but it also turns it NW fast too. GFS hits the TX LA border but as a very week system/ wave but the GFS has been terrible so far this year.

NOGAPS:



GFDL:



GFS:



CMC did not see anything and the NAM shows a Galveston hit also. While the NAM has been persistent in intensity and track overall I still don't trust it as a tropical model. That leaves the Euro and while it has been a little off this year it shows a pretty reasonable track into Corpus or South Texas. I believe we will see a shift south tomm with most models as a LLC should develop and new data will come in to the models from recon etc. Many times this year we have seen the ridge and drought being underestimated by models and I think most models are doing this again. Now if the system develops at a faster pace and really intensifies then we could see a further north track as it feels the weakness of the ridge. If models stay persistent with a SE Texas hit then I will need to change my thinking but for now I think a Corpus hit seems reasonable. While the system is small now, I do expect it to expand somewhat as intensity increases but it should remain a small system. Everyone needs to keep an eye on this system as things can change fast with great SST's in the gulf. Tomorrow should be telling.

Euro:

[srainhoutx]

06Z...favors a Middle TX Coast threat at this time...

[biggerbyte]

I really hope everyone is paying attention. Looks like what I've been preaching as a possibility is indeed being counted. The placement of the ridge that is now being forecasted is suggesting a turn for the worse for the NW Gulf region. While this possibility is subject to change, it is enough of a concern that everyone should get themselves in order. Until we know more, Corpus, to New Orleans should lean to the side of caution. In the meantime:

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/noaap ... /SYS/COMP/




This morning's Houston National Weather Service Office Discussion

000
FXUS64 KHGX 270920
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
420 AM CDT WED JUL 27 2011

...MONITORING A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...

.DISCUSSION...
THE REALITY IS THAT THERE WILL BE QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE AND
ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO AT LEAST SUPPORT
SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SE TX TODAY AND TOMORROW. POPS
WILL STILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT EACH DAY AND REMAIN HOT
WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING THE LOW 100S INLAND. HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL PROBABLY REACH CLOSE TO 107F IN A FEW LOCATIONS.

BUT THE MAIN TOPIC OF DISCUSSION IS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN
THE NW CARIBBEAN. IR SATELLITE REPRESENTATION LOOKS FAIRLY DECENT
WITH DEEP CONVECTION AROUND WHAT APPEARS TO BE A CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. NHC GIVES THIS A 70 PERCENT CHANCE OF BECOMING A
T.D. BUT THINK THE ODDS ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM IS ON ITS WAY TO
BECOMING A TROPICAL SYSTEM. AIRCRAFT RECON WILL FLY INTO THE
SYSTEM LATER TODAY AND DATA WILL LIKELY DETERMINE THE STATUS OF
THE SYSTEM. THE TRACK FORECAST OF THIS SYSTEM IS OF PARTICULAR
INTEREST BECAUSE QUITE A FEW OF THE TROPICAL MODEL GUIDANCES
BRING THE SYSTEM TO THE UPPER TX COAST. THERE IS STILL SOME
SPREAD AMONG THE GUIDANCE BUT THE NAM/GFS SEEM TO BRING THE
SYSTEM TOWARDS THE TX COAST AS WELL. FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOULD
HELP WITH THE TRACK FORECAST AS THEY WILL BENEFIT FROM A MORE
DEVELOPED SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WILL BE ON
THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM AND HOW MODEL GUIDANCE HANDLE WEAK
SYSTEMS RATHER POORLY. THAT SAID A MORE NW TRACK MAKES MORE SENSE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER THE CAROLINAS BY
THU NIGHT. RIDGES AT 700/850MB WILL ALSO BE LOCATED IN THIS
GENERAL AREA WITH A WEAKNESS OVER THE NW GULF THROUGH TX. GIVEN
THE FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE...THINK THIS SYSTEM FOR NOW WILL TRACK
AROUND THE RIDGE IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE TX COAST. THE
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY WATCHED. RIGHT NOW THE
SYSTEM HAS WARM WATERS TO PASS THROUGH IN THE NW CARIB AND S
GULF. SHEAR IS ALSO QUITE WEAK BUT AS NOTED IN UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS AND ANALYSIS...THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF EASTERLY SHEAR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF. THE SHEAR IS FORECAST BY
BOTH THE NAM/GFS TO WEAKEN SOME BUT THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW
MUCH EFFECT THE SHEAR HAS ON THE SYSTEM AND ITS INTENSITY.

WITH ALL THAT SAID...POPS WERE INCREASED TO AROUND 50 PERCENT FOR
FRIDAY BUT COULD CERTAINLY GO HIGHER DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM. MAX TEMPS WERE DROPPED A COUPLE DEGREES MORE IN LINE WITH
SOME OF THE GUIDANCE BUT SHOULD THE SYSTEM IMPACT SE TX...MAX
TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 80S WHICH WOULD BE A WELCOME BREAK
FROM THE HEAT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE CONSERVATIVELY A 0.50 TO 1.00
INCH BUT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A GROWING THREAT DEPENDING ON THE
TRACK. ALSO KEPT POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT OVERNIGHT AND 20 PERCENT
ON SATURDAY FOR ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY AFTER THE SYSTEM MOVES
INLAND.

IF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TAKES A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK AND
RAINFALL MISSES SE TX...DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL REALLY WORSEN. BY
SAT/SUN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE PLAINS AND
STRENGTHENS. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MON/TUE NEXT WEEK AND
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MAX TEMPS
WILL BE BACK IN THE UPPER 90S/LOW 100S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORIES. SE TX COULD VERY
WELL HAVE HEAT INDEX VALUES TOPPING OUT NEAR 110F. MIN TEMPS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE WARM SIDE WITH NOT A LOT OF OVERNIGHT COOLING.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
PW VALUES ARE A BIT LOWER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE IS QUITE BULLISH WITH PRECIP TODAY DESPITE THE LOWER PW
VALUES. WILL MAINTAIN CB`S IN THE TAFS. MAINLY VFR TODAY OUTSIDE
AREAS OF CONVECTION. 43

&&

.MARINE...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING ONSHORE DURING THE DAY. A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY.
THIS FEATURE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
WEAK TROPICAL STORM. TPC HAS GIVEN THIS FEATURE A 70 PERCENT
CHANCE OF FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. WINDS AND SEAS ON FRIDAY ARE A BIT
SKETCHY AND MUCH IS DEPENDENT ON HOW THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. FOR
NOW...WENT WITH THE ECMWF WHICH HAS SSE WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS. 43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES DROPPED INTO THE 30`S YESTERDAY. THE LOW RH COUPLED
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES AND SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TODAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A PALACIOS TO KATY TO
MADISONVILLE LINE. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 102 77 102 77 98 / 10 10 20 10 30
HOUSTON (IAH) 99 78 99 77 94 / 30 20 30 20 50
GALVESTON (GLS) 93 83 93 81 90 / 30 20 20 30 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...43

[Katdaddy]

You are correct biggerbyte. Just about Bear Watch time. Today will be an important day and possibly day 1 of preps.

[srainhoutx]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED JUL 27 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND RADAR
DATA FROM MEXICO SUGGESTS THAT A CIRCULATION COULD BE FORMING ABOUT
50 MILES NORTHEAST OF CANCUN. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA...AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Potential tropical cyclone threat to the state of Texas later this week/weekend.

Significant forecast changes likely over the next 48 hours.
Discussion:
The strong tropical wave over the NW Caribbean Sea continues to become better organized with deep convection frequent near/over the wave axis. Radar out of Cancun and surface observations suggest that the strong mid level center may be working its way to the surface and developing a surface circulation, at this time it is weak and barely noted in the surface data and deep convection while persistent remains scattered.

Track:
Massive high pressure ridge holding over TX for months will be moving ENE toward the Carolinas over the next 48 hours allowing a weakness to develop over the NW Gulf of Mexico and the TX coast. The Caribbean system will track along the SW side of the ridge into this weakness or in the general direction of the TX coast. Global guidance is still not “seeing” what is happening in the Caribbean Sea and shows little development, so will toss it out as it is clear that a tropical system is forming. Will follow the expected ridge position and split the difference between the 2 hurricane forecasting models (GFDL and HWRF) and the multi model consensus package and indicate a potential threat from Galveston to Brownsville with highest threat right now from about Corpus Christi to Port O Connor. GFDL takes the system as a cat 1 hurricane into Galveston Bay while the HWRF takes the system as a strong cat 1 into the area near Corpus Christi. The multi model consensus is pegged just west of Port O Connor taking into account the GFS and GFDL upper coast and the HWRF and EURO southern coast.

Will get a better handle on the spreading track solutions by this evening as data from a USAF mission midday today is ingested into the models.

Intensity:
Overall size of the system is small which means it is vulnerable to surrounding atmospheric conditions moreso than a large system. The system is over very warm waters with temperatures in the mid to upper 80’s across much of the Gulf of Mexico and the NW Caribbean Sea. Upper level shear while strong over the northern Gulf of Mexico is light over the southern Gulf and forecast to gradually weekend as the southern plains high shifts eastward. The air mass over the southern Gulf does have a bit of dry air and this may be one reason as to why the convection has been fairly meager with this system and this could impact the system down the road as it moves across the Gulf. Overall conditions in the Gulf appear favorable for development and small system can spin up/down very quickly due to surrounding atmospheric changes (dry air intrusion, weak shear, ect). SHIPS guidance brings the system to a hurricane in the Gulf along with the GFDL and HWRF hurricane models, while the GFS, EURO, and CMC show very little development at all. Feel the big global models (GFS, EURO, and CMC) are missing this small system altogether and will not put much faith in their current forecast, while the hurricane models do seem high. For now will go with a blend of the two camps and lean toward the stronger solutions with a strong tropical storm or possibly a weak hurricane approaching the TX coast late Friday.

Impacts:
Feel it is best to await data from the aircraft this afternoon before going full force on coastal impacts. Forecast will no doubt need some significant changes with respect to seas, tides, rain changes, and rainfall amounts, along with wind forecast for Friday into Saturday. Will at least bump rain chances to 50% for Friday for areas south of I-10 and this could go much higher and hit those same areas with widespread 1-2 inches of rainfall. Coastal winds will begin to back from the SSW to ESE and then E Thursday night into Friday and increase. For now will hold winds below TS force over all areas awaiting NHC wind guidance if/once the system is declared. Based on current track guidance feel, TS force winds (40mph or greater) will be needed by Friday evening over parts of the middle and upper TX coast waters and coastal counties and spreading inland Friday night.

Preparations:
Residents along the TX coast should review hurricane preparation plans and be prepared to put these plans into effect over the next 48 hours. Closely monitor weather forecast for potential rapid changes and increasing impacts to the Texas coast.

[srainhoutx]

12Z...

[srainhoutx]

A busy RECON schedule ahead...

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT WED 27 JULY 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z JULY 2011
         TCPOD NUMBER.....11-057

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. SUSPECT AREA
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71      FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49
       A. 28/1200,1800Z          A. 29/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 0204A CYCLONE    B. NOAA9 0304A CYCLONE
       C. 28/1000Z               C. 28/1730Z
       D. 23.9N 90.2W            D. NA
       E. 28/1130Z TO 28/1800Z   E. NA
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT       F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
       FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 42    FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 72
       A. 29/0000Z               A. 29/0000,0600Z
       B. NOAA2 0404A CYCLONE    B. AFXXX 0504A CYCLONE
       C. 28/2000Z               C. 28/2215Z
       D. 25.1N 92.3W            D. 25.1N 92.3W
       E. 28/2200 TO 29/0230Z    E. 28/2330Z TO 29/0600Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
       FLIGHT FIVE - NOAA 42
       A. 29/1200Z
       B. NOAA2 0604A CYCLONE
       C. 29/0800Z
       D. 26.4N 94.3W
       E. 29/1030Z TO 29/1430Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE 3-HRLY FIXES.

[redneckweather]

Man, this thread is SLOW with the possibility of a hurricane hitting the central to upper Texas coast in 2 days! This goes to show you that a lot of people don't have a clue what is brewing out there. I told my parents this morning about the possibility and they thought I was full of crap and laughed at me.

[ticka1]

Read where wxman said it has a LLC.

LLC up around 22N/86.6W

[srainhoutx]

Man, this thread is SLOW with the possibility of a hurricane hitting the central to upper Texas coast in 2 days! This goes to show you that a lot of people don't have a clue what is brewing out there. I told my parents this morning about the possibility and they thought I was full of crap and laughed at me.

Yep. Talk with a couple of neighbors this morning and not a soul had any clue what so ever. They were all busy cleaning up after our Monday night adventure up here with the wind and hail storm. Perked a couple of ears though, so those of us 'in the know' need to get the word out. Once the media picks up on a classified system, things will likely change in a hurry.