EX TC Don- Inland near Baffin Bay "Don Is Dead"

[gocuse22]

I think that counties South and west have the best chance of seeing the most rain

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/adc_hurr ... 40x480.gif

[tireman4]

I think that counties South and west have the best chance of seeing the most rain

http://sirocco.accuweather.com/adc_hurr ... 40x480.gif

At this time,, yes...who knows what 24 hours might bring....

[Ptarmigan]

Joe Bastardi Twitter
http://twitter.com/#!/BigJoeBastardi

Coastal Bend s should understand this is likely to be nr or over hurricane intensity.Strongest tropical cylone nr Crp since Celia (1970)

[biggerbyte]

[quote="srainhoutx"]00Z Water Vapor imagery. And for the record, I've not seen any of our folks calling this a 'drought buster' or a 'big rain maker' for SE TX...[/quote

LOL. I guess you must have missed some of the conversations over the past few days. I'd like to add that had Don moved in to locations that were being thrown around by some, with a couple of those being suggested by the models during some of flip flopping, that is exactly what we would have had. Not going to happen, of course.

Anyway!!!

[srainhoutx]

00Z Water Vapor imagery. And for the record, I've not seen any of our folks calling this a 'drought buster' or a 'big rain maker' for SE TX...[/quote

LOL. I guess you must have missed some of the conversations over the past few days. I'd like to add that had Don moved in to locations that were being thrown around by some, with a couple of those being suggested by the models during some of flip flopping, that is exactly what we would have had. Not going to happen, of course.

Anyway!!!

Nope. Didn't miss too much, even with traveling. In fact, some new member post were approved, spammers blocked and deleted and all on an Iphone. It's a weather message board. Plain and simple...
Now, back on topic. Don has certainly has improved in 'presentation' and RECON data. Gulf storms are certainly known to throw a curveball or two. Humberto comes to mind. Also, welcome to all our new folks. We are a friendly bunch that invite all to join in our conversations. Dan established that policy years ago. That policy still stands. We are nothing but a big ole weather geek family and love every minute of it..

[tireman4]

I miss Dan...especially now. KatDaddy and I talked about him last night. Dadgum I wished he were here. Sigh. Don...you know Srain, I am really perplexed by him. Who knows what will happen? I would suggest to all that we be vigilant and watchful.

[srainhoutx]

I know tireman4. It's been like a roller coaster and 'season' is really just starting. I suspect we'll see 91L in the Atlantic sooner, rather than later. But that's a different Topic Hang on, it could be a bumpy ride through the heart of tropical season...

[Katdaddy]

Yes Tireman we had a great chat last night. Dan is very missed on the KHOU board. Many years of watching Dan on Ch 11. A very down to earth person. I wish he was still here to give is forecast.

[srainhoutx]

00Z guidance is clustered near the Corpus area...

[srainhoutx]

BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANES HAVE BEEN
INVESTIGATING TROPICAL STORM DON AND FOUND THAT THE CYCLONE HAD
JOGGED TO THE WEST DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THAT THE CYCLONE
IS A LITTLE BIT STRONGER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURES REPORTED BY
NOAA AND AIR FORCE PLANE EARLIER THIS EVENING WERE 996 AND 998
RESPECTIVELY. MORE RECENTLY A HIGHER PRESSURE WAS REPORTED BUT THE
DROPSONDE DID NOT HIT THE VERY SMALL CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 3.0 AND 3.5 ON THE
DVORAK SCALE. THE INITIAL HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS PRIMARILY
BASED ON A BELIEVABLE 43-KNOT SFMR REPORT. THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHERLY SHEAR AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
STILL TILTED SOUTHWARD WITH HEIGHT AS REPORTED BY BOTH PLANES.
SINCE NO SIGNIFICANT DECREASE OF THE SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED AND THE
CYCLONE IS INTERACTING WITH DRY AIR OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE
LANDFALL. IN FACT NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST IMPORTANT CHANGES IN
INTENSITY.

DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...DON HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN THE WEST AND
WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KNOTS. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES HAS BEEN CONTROLLING THE TRACK OF THE
CYCLONE. SINCE THIS HIGH IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
TO PERSIST...A CONTINUATION OF A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
IS ANTICIPATED UNTIL LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED
SOUTHWARD A LITTLE BIT AND THIS DUE TO THE INITIAL WESTWARD JOG AND
NOT DUE TO ANY IMPORTANT CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN. GIVEN THE
SMALL SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE TRACK...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHERN TEXAS COAST HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING.

INTERESTS IN EXTREME NORTHEAST MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DON. AN UNEXPECTED SMALL DEVIATION TO THE SOUTH OF THE
TRACK COULD NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF WARNINGS FOR THE EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 24.7N 92.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 25.5N 94.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 26.6N 96.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 27.5N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/0000Z 28.5N 101.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[srainhoutx]

Good night gang. The 'night crew' will be watching Don...

[tireman4]

I am gone too. You have a good night.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks like we won't be getting much rain from Don. Let''s hope the projected path changes again.

[djjordan]

I'm kinda hoping for a slug of moisture up this way .... still keeping some hope alive ...but not much

[Andrew]

Concerning to me is the shear causing a south and west tilted storm which is usually opposite of what you get.

[rnmm]

Concerning to me is the shear causing a south and west tilted storm which is usually opposite of what you get.

What does this mean for Don?

[biggerbyte]

Don will move inland well south of the area. Our ridge simply is not going to allow that hoped for move more north. Impact on our local weather will be minimal at best.

As others have mentioned, this storm is only the beginning.

[Andrew]

Concerning to me is the shear causing a south and west tilted storm which is usually opposite of what you get.

What does this mean for Don?

While the system still shows really good intensity it is all being blown to the south and southwest which is opposite of most storms allowing for less moisture to make it's way up here.

[rescuemomma]

a question that is a "bit" off topic: will this continue all summer? will the high ever move and allow us some rain?

also, wondering, was this drought predicted? or CAN it be predicted?

sorry if these are silly questions, just wondering!

[srainhoutx]

a question that is a "bit" off topic: will this continue all summer? will the high ever move and allow us some rain?

also, wondering, was this drought predicted? or CAN it be predicted?

sorry if these are silly questions, just wondering!

The Ridge will likely shift around (oscillate) for the remainder of the summer. La Nina neutral years tend to be a bit dry for TX as well, other than an occasional tropical disturbance rotating under/around the W flank of the Ridge.