EX TC Don- Inland near Baffin Bay "Don Is Dead"

[Rip76]

Didn't know where to put this, but quick question.

There seems to be some convection in the gulf, below Florida.
Just looked a little suspicious, anything worth watching?

I'm driving back, from Ft worth and don't have a good sat. view.

Thanks

[biggerbyte]

I'd like to remind everyone that now is the time to get your hurricane supplies for the season. 90L is messing about, and it is currently forcasted to be a GOM resident sometime early next week. A lot is to consider, as there are a few scenarios. 90L will not be able to really gets it act together, if at all, until it enters the western Caribbean and Eastern Gulf. Models want to carry whatever it will be into Northern Mexico, or South Texas. Due to all of the variables, everyone in the GOM region should pay attention. This is especially true for all Residents of Texas and the Northern Gulf States.

[wxman57]

I'd put it along 68W as of 6PM CDT, maybe 16N, but there is definitely no LLC yet. Just a wave axis. Convection is expanding and outflow improving. Note that 850mb winds in its immediate path increase to 25-30 kts, or more. Not good for near-term development, but those winds forecast to drop to 15 kts near the Yucatan. That is good for low-level convergence. GFS and Euro move the ridge over Texas east to the Carolinas by Thursday, opening up the western Gulf for a northerly turn toward TX if it does develop, or even if it doesn't develop.

[ticka1]

I'd put it along 68W as of 6PM CDT, maybe 16N, but there is definitely no LLC yet. Just a wave axis. Convection is expanding and outflow improving. Note that 850mb winds in its immediate path increase to 25-30 kts, or more. Not good for near-term development, but those winds forecast to drop to 15 kts near the Yucatan. That is good for low-level convergence. GFS and Euro move the ridge over Texas east to the Carolinas by Thursday, opening up the western Gulf for a northerly turn toward TX if it does develop, or even if it doesn't develop.

wxman could we have an undeveloped system that could possibly bring us rain next weekend? Just curious. You know I would rather have rain then a tropical/hurricane system.

How's the bike riding this year?

[Rip76]

I agree....

It's not a TS/Hurricane I worry about as much as not having electricity for a long period of time.
Especially in this heat.
And unlike Ike, we probably won't be getting a cool front afterwards.

[wxman57]

I'd put it along 68W as of 6PM CDT, maybe 16N, but there is definitely no LLC yet. Just a wave axis. Convection is expanding and outflow improving. Note that 850mb winds in its immediate path increase to 25-30 kts, or more. Not good for near-term development, but those winds forecast to drop to 15 kts near the Yucatan. That is good for low-level convergence. GFS and Euro move the ridge over Texas east to the Carolinas by Thursday, opening up the western Gulf for a northerly turn toward TX if it does develop, or even if it doesn't develop.

wxman could we have an undeveloped system that could possibly bring us rain next weekend? Just curious. You know I would rather have rain then a tropical/hurricane system.

How's the bike riding this year?

Sure, an undeveloped system could. However, I think the chances of this disturbance developing in the Gulf may be better than 50%. And if it does develop, then it would likely become a hurricane before landfall.

[sambucol]

Sure, an undeveloped system could. However, I think the chances of this disturbance developing in the Gulf may be better than 50%. And if it does develop, then it would likely become a hurricane before landfall.

Nooooo!!!!!!! My house is being remodeled after the fire in May, so, no hurricanes or tropical storms here until my house is finished!!!!

[indian1999]

I was glass one eight optimistic, but if WxMan57 thinks this has a chance, I have to go glass three sixteenths optimistic.

Wish there was a reliable global that developed it, however...

does it look like this system could possibly be heading to the upper texas coast later this week?

[weatherguy425]

Hopefully we do get some rain out of this. Was lookin like more of a south texas threat. A tad weaker of a ridge could fix that though. Hopefully no wind!

[TexasBreeze]

I don't think it will do too much considering how it looks today with not too much convection and it's been just stretched out and sheared. Maybe it will look better later?

[Ptarmigan]

It has mountainous terrain to deal with before it enters Gulf of Mexico. I think this week is make it or break it for 90L.

[am19psu]

There's a TUTT in the channel that's going to muck things up all week. Best case scenario for a TC, imo, is a rapid spin up 12-18 hours before landfall on Thursday. I think it's more likely to remain open.

[Ptarmigan]

Impressive thunderstorms over Haiti. Not all is lost for 90L.

[Andrew]

Well 90L is still hanging on despite some d-min's that have almost destroyed it. The next couple of days should be very telling for if this storm will form. I give this a 50-50 shot of forming once it gets in the gulf and I have a feeling that tomm or Tuesday we should see some very good pulses that will give us a LLC. 90L is heading into an area with less land interaction and less shear. That paired with some good sst's are going to really be 90L's shot at getting going.

As for where it tracks, well that is still up in the air at this point. Models have been all over the place with this system. The GFS still doesn't want it to form, and many of the other models are coming in weaker leaving the NAM which has considerable development. Track has been generally WNW but intensity will influence this greatly so until we get a LLC I will hold off on my thoughts. Keep tracking this one everyone hopefully it will provide us some rain.

[jasons2k]

I think it's too early to write this off. We have a wave that's poised to make an appearance in GOM in late July...I'm sticking to my guns that Wed/Thu could get interesting in the Gulf.

[nuby3]

I think it's too early to write this off. We have a wave that's poised to make an appearance in GOM in late July...I'm sticking to my guns that Wed/Thu could get interesting in the Gulf.

I agree. sometimes you just have to sit back and shut up and watch for a while. there is nothing to decide about this feature at the moment.

[srainhoutx]

Bill Read talked at length on Saturday regarding GOM storms and just how difficult they can be to forecast. If 90L continues to slow and the TUTT continues to shear out as it is today, the least we could expect is some possible beneficial rains later in the week. We will see...

[redneckweather]

I think it's too early to write this off. We have a wave that's poised to make an appearance in GOM in late July...I'm sticking to my guns that Wed/Thu could get interesting in the Gulf.

Agreed. Convection is still popping up pretty good with this wave. I've just been sitting back watching it as it creeps closer to the GOM where it will have it's opportunity to show its face. Till then....not gonna happen.

[srainhoutx]

For what it's worth the 12Z Euro hangs onto just enough 850mb and 500mb vorticity to make things interesting as 90L travels WNW through the Yucatan Channel toward S TX and motion is slowing...

[rnmm]

For what it's worth the 12Z Euro hangs onto just enough 850mb and 500mb vorticity to make things interesting as 90L travels WNW through the Yucatan Channel toward S TX and motion is slowing...

Glad to have you back Srain! Maybe places in Texas will get some much needed rain without all the other hoopla that comes with a storm!