EX TC Don- Inland near Baffin Bay "Don Is Dead"

[srainhoutx]

For what it's worth the 12Z Euro hangs onto just enough 850mb and 500mb vorticity to make things interesting as 90L travels WNW through the Yucatan Channel toward S TX and motion is slowing...

Glad to have you back Srain! Maybe places in Texas will get some much needed rain without all the other hoopla that comes with a storm!

Thanks rnmm. I had a great time, but it's always good to get home. Increased rainfall chances would likely be the more desired and most likely benefit from this disturbance for drought parched Coastal TX/LA and NE MX.

[CAK]

I don't know guys...but I think I may be seeing the beginning of some rotation/ formation from 90L.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

[jasons2k]

Yes, 90L looks better than it did this morning. I think this will be an invest again very soon.

[texoz]

I spy a little spin, just west/northwest of Jamaica. Also noticed low level cumulus changed motion just NE of Yucatan about 4pm CST. They were drifting NW in earlier frames, now drifting SW.

[tireman4]

Wxman called this one. It just might develop yet

[sleetstorm]

The Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic Ocean, and Carribean Sea have been, are, and continue to get primed for the development of tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes this year's hurricane season.

[rnmm]

90L has now been reactivated!

[biggerbyte]

Folks, we need to keep a watchful eye on this one. A few scenarios:
It stays weak, which sends it down to south Texas. This could mean an increase in moisture for our area.
90L could also ramp up just to be sheared apart again as it crosses the gulf. There is some talk of the conditions being too hostile for development during its trek out of the Caribbean. Lastly, this system ramps up to hurricane strength, the ridge breaks down with a hurricane being drawn more northerly. At this point, any of these scenarios can come to pass. Over the next two days we should be able to come to a conclusion. Watch the forecasted tracks as this evolves. Watch them slowly slide north up the Texas Coast. As I said two days ago, 90L would do nothing until it enters the western Caribbean and Eastern Gulf. This could be a fast bloomer if the conditions do not end up being hostile over the region. Everyone from south Texas to LA should be eyeballing the forecast.

[Katdaddy]

Humberto is easily forgotten by the public. It only takes 1 day for a TW to become a CAT 1 hurricane depending on upper level conditions. The GOM is very warm this summer. I will never forget seeing Humberto come to life with amazing speed. Seeing a weak tropical storm with an eyewall on radar was mind boggling. 4 more hours before landfall a CAT 3 and 8 hours a CAT 5. The ultimate RI was ongoing.

[tireman4]

Humberto is easily forgotten by the public. It only takes 1 day for a TW to become a CAT 1 hurricane depending on upper level conditions. The GOM is very warm this summer. I will never forget seeing Humberto come to life with amazing speed. Seeing a weak tropical storm with an eyewall on radar was mind boggling. 4 more hours before landfall a CAT 3 and 8 hours a CAT 5. The ultimate RI was ongoing.

I agree Katdaddy. The Gulf is really WARM. The wind shear is forcast to be light. It is a scenario that COULD produce bad results. I believe everyone from Mexico to Florida should monitor this.

[srainhoutx]

00Z...the first since re-activation...

[ticka1]

srainhoutx - have any of the models run to show where its heading?

Just got home and trying to catch-up - intersting week ahead for tropics watching....in the GOM>

[srainhoutx]

srainhoutx - have any of the models run to show where its heading?

Just got home and trying to catch-up - intersting week ahead for tropics watching....in the GOM>

Sorry ticka1. Power was out from 6:25 to 9:02. Cooked dinner outside like a bit of a 'tropical season warm up'...

[ticka1]

srainhoutx - have any of the models run to show where its heading?

Just got home and trying to catch-up - intersting week ahead for tropics watching....in the GOM>

Sorry ticka1. Power was out from 6:25 to 9:02. Cooked dinner outside like a bit of a 'tropical season warm up'...

Oh wow sorry about the power being out but at least you ate and got a little practice in - how did you lose power - from storms?

Thanks for the model link srainhoutx - hope it stays on and the house cools down quickly.

Time for sleep - later this week we might be watching something....

[biggerbyte]

Remember it well, katdaddy. This system could pull a Rita, depending on how the ridge sets up. Path wise, I mean, not nessasarily strength.

[biggerbyte]

Interesting to note the upper level winds in forecasting the path of 90L. A stronger, vs. weaker system. So many variables. I'd hate to be on the side of the NHC.

[Ptarmigan]

I think 90L has a good chance at development. The question is will 90L be a tropical storm or hurricane. I think when 90L does develop, I think it will be a small storm.

[Ptarmigan]

Humberto is easily forgotten by the public. It only takes 1 day for a TW to become a CAT 1 hurricane depending on upper level conditions. The GOM is very warm this summer. I will never forget seeing Humberto come to life with amazing speed. Seeing a weak tropical storm with an eyewall on radar was mind boggling. 4 more hours before landfall a CAT 3 and 8 hours a CAT 5. The ultimate RI was ongoing.

I remember Humberto forming suddenly from thunderstorms over the Gulf of Mexico. It made landfall exactly one year before Ike did. As for computer models for 90L, they tend go right of the path.

[Andrew]

Things are getting more interesting as convection is blowing up around the MLC and could be forming a LLC. The track is interesting as more models are pointing towards a middle Texas hit with a stronger system. We need to watch how convection sustains and if so how fast development occurs.

[nuby3]

some more intense convection firing over the "center" last couple of hours. interested to see it in the morning. I think 90L is starting to realize itself