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It has mountainous terrain to deal with before it enters Gulf of Mexico. I think this week is make it or break it for 90L.

There's a TUTT in the channel that's going to muck things up all week. Best case scenario for a TC, imo, is a rapid spin up 12-18 hours before landfall on Thursday. I think it's more likely to remain open.

Impressive thunderstorms over Haiti. Not all is lost for 90L.

Well 90L is still hanging on despite some d-min's that have almost destroyed it. The next couple of days should be very telling for if this storm will form. I give this a 50-50 shot of forming once it gets in the gulf and I have a feeling that tomm or Tuesday we should see some very good pulses that will give us a LLC. 90L is heading into an area with less land interaction and less shear. That paired with some good sst's are going to really be 90L's shot at getting going.
As for where it tracks, well that is still up in the air at this point. Models have been all over the place with this system. The GFS still doesn't want it to form, and many of the other models are coming in weaker leaving the NAM which has considerable development. Track has been generally WNW but intensity will influence this greatly so until we get a LLC I will hold off on my thoughts. Keep tracking this one everyone hopefully it will provide us some rain.

I think it's too early to write this off. We have a wave that's poised to make an appearance in GOM in late July...I'm sticking to my guns that Wed/Thu could get interesting in the Gulf.

jasons wrote:I think it's too early to write this off. We have a wave that's poised to make an appearance in GOM in late July...I'm sticking to my guns that Wed/Thu could get interesting in the Gulf.

I agree. sometimes you just have to sit back and shut up and watch for a while. there is nothing to decide about this feature at the moment.

Bill Read talked at length on Saturday regarding GOM storms and just how difficult they can be to forecast. If 90L continues to slow and the TUTT continues to shear out as it is today, the least we could expect is some possible beneficial rains later in the week. We will see...

jasons wrote:I think it's too early to write this off. We have a wave that's poised to make an appearance in GOM in late July...I'm sticking to my guns that Wed/Thu could get interesting in the Gulf.

Agreed. Convection is still popping up pretty good with this wave. I've just been sitting back watching it as it creeps closer to the GOM where it will have it's opportunity to show its face. Till then....not gonna happen.

For what it's worth the 12Z Euro hangs onto just enough 850mb and 500mb vorticity to make things interesting as 90L travels WNW through the Yucatan Channel toward S TX and motion is slowing...

srainhoutx wrote:For what it's worth the 12Z Euro hangs onto just enough 850mb and 500mb vorticity to make things interesting as 90L travels WNW through the Yucatan Channel toward S TX and motion is slowing...

Glad to have you back Srain! Maybe places in Texas will get some much needed rain without all the other hoopla that comes with a storm!

rnmm wrote:

srainhoutx wrote:For what it's worth the 12Z Euro hangs onto just enough 850mb and 500mb vorticity to make things interesting as 90L travels WNW through the Yucatan Channel toward S TX and motion is slowing...

Glad to have you back Srain! Maybe places in Texas will get some much needed rain without all the other hoopla that comes with a storm!

Thanks rnmm. I had a great time, but it's always good to get home. Increased rainfall chances would likely be the more desired and most likely benefit from this disturbance for drought parched Coastal TX/LA and NE MX.

I don't know guys...but I think I may be seeing the beginning of some rotation/ formation from 90L.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+12

Yes, 90L looks better than it did this morning. I think this will be an invest again very soon.

I spy a little spin, just west/northwest of Jamaica. Also noticed low level cumulus changed motion just NE of Yucatan about 4pm CST. They were drifting NW in earlier frames, now drifting SW.

Wxman called this one. It just might develop yet

The Gulf of Mexico, Atlantic Ocean, and Carribean Sea have been, are, and continue to get primed for the development of tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes this year's hurricane season.

90L has now been reactivated!

Folks, we need to keep a watchful eye on this one. A few scenarios:
It stays weak, which sends it down to south Texas. This could mean an increase in moisture for our area.
90L could also ramp up just to be sheared apart again as it crosses the gulf. There is some talk of the conditions being too hostile for development during its trek out of the Caribbean. Lastly, this system ramps up to hurricane strength, the ridge breaks down with a hurricane being drawn more northerly. At this point, any of these scenarios can come to pass. Over the next two days we should be able to come to a conclusion. Watch the forecasted tracks as this evolves. Watch them slowly slide north up the Texas Coast. As I said two days ago, 90L would do nothing until it enters the western Caribbean and Eastern Gulf. This could be a fast bloomer if the conditions do not end up being hostile over the region. Everyone from south Texas to LA should be eyeballing the forecast.

Humberto is easily forgotten by the public. It only takes 1 day for a TW to become a CAT 1 hurricane depending on upper level conditions. The GOM is very warm this summer. I will never forget seeing Humberto come to life with amazing speed. Seeing a weak tropical storm with an eyewall on radar was mind boggling. 4 more hours before landfall a CAT 3 and 8 hours a CAT 5. The ultimate RI was ongoing.

Katdaddy wrote:Humberto is easily forgotten by the public. It only takes 1 day for a TW to become a CAT 1 hurricane depending on upper level conditions. The GOM is very warm this summer. I will never forget seeing Humberto come to life with amazing speed. Seeing a weak tropical storm with an eyewall on radar was mind boggling. 4 more hours before landfall a CAT 3 and 8 hours a CAT 5. The ultimate RI was ongoing.

I agree Katdaddy. The Gulf is really WARM. The wind shear is forcast to be light. It is a scenario that COULD produce bad results. I believe everyone from Mexico to Florida should monitor this.