August Weather Discussion

[mckinne63]

Watch out for blackouts/burnouts:

From Portastorm:

Saw a couple of interesting items on Twitter this morning, including:

* As of 8:30 a.m., demand for power in Texas is exceeding the forecasted load by ERCOT. Should this trend continue, I bet we'll get to that emergency level 2B quicker than we did yesterday afternoon. Brownouts or blackouts will be likely.

* Folks at SMU were told there will be no warning if the power is shut off. For those of us working on computers, save your docs early and often!

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 2#p2155662

Sure hope that doesn't happen! Guess there will be many sitting in their cars listening to the radio with the a/c blasting. Time to fill up the tank.

Does anyone know how long they would keep the power off for a given area? When we had the black outs during last year's freeze, our office building got it 3x, each one lasting more than hour. The last one was about 2 hours. Yet at my house, only lasted about 15 minutes, 2x.

Also, why no warning? I had a friend who had to do several appliance repairs due to the sudden outages last year.

I have been mindful of conserving where I can. All lights are off, only 1 TV on in the house, guess I could turn off the ceiling fans when I am not in the room. Would that even make a difference?

[Andrew]

Unfortuantly, looking at many models including the gfs, they show a very potent ridge continuing for an extended period. For those of you that have keep up with Jeff's emails I fid it very interesting how he talks about the possibility of this being a multi year drought and closer conditions to pre 1960's climates. At this stage in the game if we want relief unfortuantly I feel it will take something similar to Ike to give us that....

[randybpt]

Wow...went out this morning to wash truck. Man I am depressed I just can't handle this heat like I used to. 45 tomorrow and I'm in great shape but this heat has to go. Heat index of 100 at 9 am. Give me a break!!!

[texoz]

the wispy morning clouds I see in central Texas seem less like clouds and more like smoke from a smoldering planet.

[sambucol]

Unfortuantly, looking at many models including the gfs, they show a very potent ridge continuing for an extended period. For those of you that have keep up with Jeff's emails I fid it very interesting how he talks about the possibility of this being a multi year drought and closer conditions to pre 1960's climates. At this stage in the game if we want relief unfortuantly I feel it will take something similar to Ike to give us that....

It's concerning how 1 town in Texas that Jeff mentioned was about to (or had already) run out of water. If this drought continues, I'm concerned we are going to faced with a serious problem with water supplies. It might be wise to stock up on water now.

[rnmm]

The signs along I-10 and other highways that once warned, "Hurricane season is here, be prepared" have been replaced with"Conserve Water. Extreme Drought Conditions." With the talk of no relief in sight for awhile, I am like everyone else and fear what we maybe facing. Here is hoping to some rain!

[Ptarmigan]

This drought is just as bad as a hurricane. Droughts and heat waves are the costliest and deadliest disasters in America.

1980-2010
1.) Hurricane Katrina $133.8 billion 1,833 Killed
2.) 1988 Drought and Heat Wave $71.2 billion ~10,000 Killed
3.) 1980 Drought and Heat Wave $55.4 billion ~7,500 Killed
4.) Hurricane Andrew $40 billion 61 killed
5.) 1993 Midwest Flood $30.2 billion 48 killed
6.) Hurricane Ike $27 billion 112 killed
7.) Hurricane Rita $17.1 billion 120 killed
7.) Hurricane Wilma $17.1 billion 35 killed
8.) Hurricane Charley $16.5 billion 35 killed
9.) Hurricane Ivan $15.4 billion 57 killed
10.) Hurricane Hugo $15.3 billion 86 killed

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/reports/bi ... rs2010.pdf

From the link, most of the billion dollar disasters from 1980-2010 are droughts. The drought is going to really bite us in the form of higher food prices, which comes at a bad time with the economy in a weak state.

[Rip76]

11 to 12 sprinkles on my lawn just now.

[djmike]

Honestly...when do you pro mets think this ridge will begin to break down? When do you think we will start seeing some showers again? I'm hearing that we can not expect much change until the first "cool" front comes around early October, is that true? I know it might be too much to ask, but ANY glimmer of hope anytime soon? Your opinions please....

[tireman4]

Honestly...when do you pro mets think this ridge will begin to break down? When do you think we will start seeing some showers again? I'm hearing that we can not expect much change until the first "cool" front comes around early October, is that true? I know it might be too much to ask, but ANY glimmer of hope anytime soon? Your opinions please....

Here is one pro met...
Larry Cosgrove's thinking on how long this might last:


My thinking is, based on the pulsation we see developing into the Midwest and Great Lakes, that we get a meaningful cool intrusion around September 5.

http://www.facebook.com/#!/ryoum

For climo, it will be September 24-25 before we really see any cool weather. Showers, according to GFS...August 21...

[srainhoutx]

~Sigh~...

Code: Select all

.CLIMATE...
WELL IT WAS BOUND TO HAPPEN AND AS OF THIS MORNING...HOUSTON IS
ENDURING ITS DRIEST YEAR TO DATE AND HAS TIED IT`S WARMEST YEAR TO
DATE AND WILL LIKELY SURPASS 1911 TOMORROW OR WEDNESDAY.

CITY OF
HOUSTON

1/1 THRU 8/7

72.2 2011
72.2 1911
71.8 1962
71.7 2009
71.7 1953

10.86 2011
12.27 1917
13.58 1915
14.41 1996
14.65 1937

[tireman4]

Yeah Srain, the hits just keep on coming. Goodness. Why us? I am just praying we make it to September 5...when, according to Larry, a cool intrusion will come in. We all need it.

[jeff]

I am still holding out on the tropics to bring the hammer, but I am starting to wonder if anything will be strong enough to go toe to toe with this ridge. Bring on the moisture starved cold fronts, at least some cooler air, but much drier conditions without rain will only bring extreme fire danger back into play. With the threat of weak La Nina conditions possible this winter you know what that means. Texas was much drier pre-1960 we have enjoyed a "nice" wet and cool last 40-50 years...the heat has really come back in the last 5 years...and now the dryness. Dry and heat go hand and hand! This is really an ongoing 3 year drought that started the day after Ike and has had a few big rain events (April 09) that have made it manageable until the last 10 months when the rain really cut off. The 50's drought is still the drought of record, but it was not this severe in the short term...this is really severe in the short term and we are seeing much greater impacts in a shorter amount of time compared to the 50's which had a little more rainfall during the drought years. Look at how amazing some of the records we are sitting are. Our driest Oct-July period is in first place by nearly 5.0 inches...now that is a record!

[srainhoutx]

Thanks for the update Jeff. I've heard many an old timer say they'd take some wind if we could get the rain.

[texoz]

Here are few numbers from the Austin heat wave.

- haven't seen the official (NWS) notice yet, but today was the 24th straight day with highs at 100 or above. Previous record was 21 days set in 2001. Record could be 39 straight days and counting, but there was one 99 degree day on July 16th that broke a streak of 14 straight days of 100, or higher between July 2nd and July 15th.

- for the first week of August the average high is 105.7
- the last time Austin had a high below 90 degrees was May 21st. Since then, we've had 79 days of temps 90 or higher.
- current total of days at or above 100 degrees is 55 days. That places 2011 in 4th place with total 100 degree days. Record is 69 set in 1925. In second place with 68 days was 2009. Odds are good Austin will eclipse the 1925 record

(now, drum roll please)

- it has been 79 days since Austin had a high below 90 degrees (May 21st). The AVERAGE high temperate since then is a whopping 100.8 degrees. With the current 7-day forecast, it's a safe bet that Austin will go at least 90 days averaging a high of 100 degrees.
- Austin averages 12 days a year at 100 degrees or higher.

[srainhoutx]

Not much else to say...

Code: Select all

.CLIMATE...
THE TEMPERATURE HIT 101 DEGREES AT IAH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS THE
NINTH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH THE TEMPERATURE REACHING OR EXCEEDING 100
DEGREES. THIS TIES FOR THE 3RD LONGEST SUCH STREAK IN CITY HISTORY.

14 DAYS  7/19/1980
11 DAYS  8/05/1998
9  DAYS  8/09/2011
9  DAYS  7/03/1980
8  DAYS  9/05/2000
8  DAYS  8/21/1993
8  DAYS  8/14/1962

THERE HAVE BEEN 20 DAYS SO FAR THIS YEAR WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
OR EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES. THIS TIES FOR THE THIRD LONGEST SUCH
STREAK IN CITY OF HOUSTON WEATHER HISTORY. BELOW ARE THE TOP 5 YEARS
WITH 100 DEGREE DAYS:

32 DAYS  1980
24 DAYS  1998
20 DAYS  2011
20 DAYS  2000
19 DAYS  1901

[srainhoutx]

The Fourth of July 1980 broke up what would have been a 24 day 100ºF streak?

Yep. That is correct

[tireman4]

Well you knew this was coming. Sigh.



HOUSTON – Mayor Annise Parker plans to issue mandatory water restrictions within the next week, her office confirmed Wednesday.

The dry conditions have been causing the city to pump a record amount of water this summer.


http://www.khou.com/news/local/Houston- ... 56258.html

[sleetstorm]

I know that some of us want cooler temperatures to take the edge off of the scorching heat, but dry air is sometimes accompanied with cooler temperatuers particularly when ushered in via a cold front. The ground is already arid enough as it is in numerous places of this state and more dry air will only increase the threat for additional wildfires to start.

[unome]

this is the 1st time in a while HPC's 5-day had anything at all for our area - it's a start !