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RECON found a possible 'center' SW of previous position via the first vortex message

srainhoutx wrote:RECON found a possible 'center' SW of previous position via the first vortex message

Yea looking at all the possible centers is giving me a headache. So much rotation out there from so many different places.

srainhoutx wrote:RECON found a possible 'center' SW of previous position via the first vortex message

Does this mean a more west track?

I am still holding out hope!!! At least a cold front is coming. I can say this. With the High Pressure Ridge of Death going away, that will open the Gulf to moisture to move our way. That means, we will have many more chances of what the Elders call rain. This is a beginning, not an ending. I would also watch the Gulf in September and October. I fear that this season is in the fifth inning of a nine inning game.


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Yep... further SW

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 16:57Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Tropical Depression: Number 13 (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 11
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 16:38:30Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 27°21'N 91°30'W (27.35N 91.5W)
B. Center Fix Location: 201 miles (323 km) to the S (171°) from Lafayette, LA, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,464m (4,803ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 42kts (~ 48.3mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 73 nautical miles (84 statute miles) to the ENE (71°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 154° at 36kts (From the SSE at ~ 41.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 75 nautical miles (86 statute miles) to the ENE (73°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,527m (5,010ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 11°C (52°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 8 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph) in the east quadrant at 16:11:30Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 20°C (68°F) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the E/ESE (101°) from the flight level center

For what it's worth, the 12Z Canadian is much closer to Lake Charles/Beaumont and stalls the storm in SW Louisiana for nearly 24 hours+...

a few models @ 09/04 00z

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LEE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
100 PM CDT FRI SEP 02 2011

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM LEE SOUTH OF THE
LOUISIANA COAST...HEAVY RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH
OF SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 91.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WESTWARD TO SABINE PASS TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND
OBSERVATIONS FROM OIL RIGS TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 27.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST. LEE IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 2
MPH...4 KM/H. A CONTINUED SLOW AND POSSIBLY ERRATIC MOTION TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN LOUISIANA DURING THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH ARE BEING REPORTED ON OIL
RIGS NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER AT ELEVATIONS OF A FEW HUNDRED
FEET ABOVE THE OCEAN SURFACE.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325
KM...MAINLY NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM NEARBY
OIL RIGS AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1003
MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TROPICAL STORM LEE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
CAUSE EXTENSIVE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 2
TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...MAKING
OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TONIGHT.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

"2112"

We have assumed control.

Funny, "center" a little more SW, but the storm is going to turn more to the NE?

If we can just get that moisture to wrap around the center...

desiredwxgd wrote:If we can just get that moisture to wrap around the center...

seems so close! Yet so far away!!

I could stick my arm out and touch it, it's sooo close! C'mon Lee! Just a little! We're not asking much! Pleeeease!

djmike wrote:I could stick my arm out and touch it, it's sooo close! C'mon Lee! Just a little! We're not asking much! Pleeeease!

Pleasssssssssseeeeeeeeee pretty please come play with us in Texas!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! SE Texas

LOL maybe we should all do a flash mob rain dance down at discovery green park Maybe that'll get Lee's attention

There is absolutely no moisture to work with on the western side.

I am SO jealous of Louisiana right now.....

SE TX Multi-Media Weather Briefing http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=briefing

this was from 10 AM today, but they did a good job of explaining imo - they keep getting better at this all the time

Normally, you see alot of these comments, prayers, begging, etc when we are all looking for 1 snowflake.....now here we are looking for 1 raindrop....sad, sad.....lol

tireman4 wrote:I am still holding out hope!!! At least a cold front is coming. I can say this. With the High Pressure Ridge of Death going away, that will open the Gulf to moisture to move our way. That means, we will have many more chances of what the Elders call rain. This is a beginning, not an ending. I would also watch the Gulf in September and October. I fear that this season is in the fifth inning of a nine inning game.

It's the beginning of the end. Once the fronts start, it becomes much more difficult for a storm to penetrate the TX coast. Our season is virtually over on Oct 1st. Jerry was probably as once-in-a-lifetime storm.

The 12Z Euro suggests Lee will meander S of Lafayette/Vermillion Bay while slowly strengthening and finally head inland near hour 120, for what it's worth.