January 2025

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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Brazoriatx979 wrote: Thu Jan 16, 2025 6:18 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Thu Jan 16, 2025 6:14 pm Looking at those maps is depressing north of 105
I know...




Isn't it great? Lol hwy 1*5 usually gets everything 🤣
They still could. Long ways to go. It could also trend towards both central and SE TX get some snow.
redneckweather
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Brazoriatx979 wrote: Thu Jan 16, 2025 6:18 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Thu Jan 16, 2025 6:14 pm Looking at those maps is depressing north of 105
I know...




Isn't it great? Lol hwy 1*5 usually gets everything 🤣
Not when it comes to snow. It’s either South of North of us. We completely missed the 2004 Christmas snow. I live 5 minutes from Lake Conroe and I didn’t even see a flake Lol
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DoctorMu
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Thu Jan 16, 2025 4:43 pm
TexasBreeze wrote: Thu Jan 16, 2025 4:39 pm mcheer23 was shocked this morning at the models overnight and I am currently shocked by today's reflip in the same day!
I’m not, this really boils down to whether this thing amplifies and grabs moisture or not.

This will be a now cast on how far it can dig. We see potential booms and busts here and there and everything in between.

I could see us flip a little more before we get a decent signal of light precip or heavy.

I’m not really worried about Temps.

Yep. It's all about the moisture and timing. The cold is in place and it's deep.
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DoctorMu
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We had 1 legit snow in the 90s and through 2006 and 2 ice storms.

2007 - today we've had 7 snowfalls with measurable precip. Flurries with a trace or less about 5-6 additional times.

Going for the lucky 8 (snow)ball.
vci_guy2003
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With all the forecasted precip wouldn’t the low and high temps be lower than currently shown?
sswinney
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vci_guy2003 wrote: Thu Jan 16, 2025 7:14 pm With all the forecasted precip wouldn’t the low and high temps be lower than currently shown?
I think you have to start looking at wet bulb temps.
Been here for years since Katrina.
Brazoriatx979
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vci_guy2003 wrote: Thu Jan 16, 2025 7:14 pm With all the forecasted precip wouldn’t the low and high temps be lower than currently shown?
Yes they are playing it safe this far out. Temps will get lowered closer to Sunday
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MontgomeryCoWx
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If this plays out like I think it might, a lot of us will see precip in the low-mid 20s.
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Cpv17
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TWC app has a low of 17°F here Wednesday morning.
Cpv17
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Thu Jan 16, 2025 7:24 pm If this plays out like I think it might, a lot of us will see precip in the low-mid 20s.
That’s a sweet spot right there.
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snowman65
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when is the next big update?
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MontgomeryCoWx
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snowman65 wrote: Thu Jan 16, 2025 7:49 pm when is the next big update?
They will start around 930
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Cpv17
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18z Euro AI came in more bullish than its 12z run regarding precip.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Cpv17 wrote: Thu Jan 16, 2025 8:05 pm 18z Euro AI came in more bullish than its 12z run regarding precip.
The coastal low almost takes the perfect path on that model. Miles from qpf totaling a foot in the right spots.
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jasons2k
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It’s been a long day and just now taking a peek at things. Still coming together about like I’m expecting. No changes in my thinking at this time.
walsean1
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I think the temps the news stations are displaying are too warm and will slowly come down once Sunday rolls around. The ensembles and models don’t handle cold weather well. We would be 1-2 day out at that time.
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DoctorMu
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jasons2k wrote: Thu Jan 16, 2025 8:12 pm It’s been a long day and just now taking a peek at things. Still coming together about like I’m expecting. No changes in my thinking at this time.
TBH I don't see major changes since before our trip to Arkansas. There's still significant patches of snow on the ground near Hot Springs.

There will be frozen precip. next week and arctic air. Not 2021 level, but cold enough. The amount, type, where, where, extend/widespread or not are never certain from a granular standpoint. Given the complexities and the struggles the models have, we're likely to be NOWcasting again.
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DoctorMu
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walsean1 wrote: Thu Jan 16, 2025 8:12 pm I think the temps the news stations are displaying are too warm and will slowly come down once Sunday rolls around. The ensembles and models don’t handle cold weather well. We would be 1-2 day out at that time.
GEM - hold my snowball:

We shall see.
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txsnowmaker
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Interesting. NWS now has snow shower chances starting in metro Houston Monday “after noon.”

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... -95.487445
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Rip76
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txsnowmaker wrote: Thu Jan 16, 2025 8:42 pm Interesting. NWS now has snow shower chances starting in metro Houston Monday “after noon.”

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.p ... -95.487445
Those daytime temps seem high.
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