Edit- EWG Oklahoma Hell Snow!!!

[srainhoutx]

ECMWF does look a bit chilly this weekend. We shall see...

[TexasMetBlake]

Never say never...I've seen it snow in April! (that's my answer to everything)

[Ptarmigan]

I remember some winter storms north of Houston on Easter Day of 2007.

[texaskaz]

What is going on? I planted most of my tomatoes about 3 weeks late,,,,,are we really getting below 40 anytime soon?

[sambucol]

What kind of temps are we probably going to have here this weekend? Any sleet/snow possibility?

[srainhoutx]

Larry Cosgrove in the Houston Examiner...

http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston- ... ch-17-2010

[wxman57]

Taking a look at projected soundings for up around the Red River, it looks like the precip will be ending before the surface air gets cold enough - just like the last time. Cold rain and temps in the mid to upper 30s to low 40s is most likely in far NE TX around the Red River. I don't see any snow indicated on the Euro. NW Oklahoma and southern Kansas (and ENE of there) look like where this system will drop some significant snow. It looks way too warm in the lower levels in the Dallas area (while precip is falling) for snow.

[srainhoutx]

HGX does suggest some 30's Sunday morning N of I-10 behind the strong front and cooler temps next week. With that said, it does appear that the Southern Rockies and Plains will see wintry weather from this late season storm...

[wxman57]

Yep, we will likely see some temps in the 30s across the area on Sunday morning. Conroe/Huntsville areas may see 33-36 degrees, enough for a frost. Hopefully, the last such event this winter.

[wxman57]

Yes, it does look like some significant snow for Oklahoma, particularly east-central and northeast OK to southwestern Missouri. On the snow accumulation map below, you need to ignore the snow accumulations across NE and east TX south of about that 3" contour as once-again the GFS is making this forecast without considering that the lower 2000-4000 ft above the ground may be above freezing, so only cold rain would fall in the light gray areas and first few shades of green.

[srainhoutx]

Sure has a Christmas Eve 'feel' to it regarding storm track across TX and the Southern Plains. I noticed Dodge City mentioned the same thing in their afternoon AFD. A lot of winter weather watches/warning flying...

[TexasMetBlake]

Snipet from Ft. Worth:

TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS WILL CERTAINLY BE COLD ENOUGH
FOR SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE CWA BY SATURDAY EVENING. WHETHER IT
ACTUALLY DOES SNOW WILL DEPEND ON THE WRAP-AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AND THUS ESSENTIALLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
TRACKS. AS MENTIONED...THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS HAVE SHIFTED
THE TRACK FARTHER SOUTH...WHICH IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE SOLUTION
THAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN DEPICTING FOR A COUPLE RUNS NOW. SOME OF
THE MODELS ARE EVEN FARTHER SOUTH...BUT FOR NOW THIS FORECAST WILL
STAY WITH THE CONSENSUS TRACK. HAVE INTRODUCED A MENTION OF SNOW
OVER OVER THE NORTHERN 2 ROWS OF COUNTIES. GIVEN THE MODELS REALLY
HAVE NOT SETTLED ON A TRACK LATITUDE YET...CONFIDENCE IN SNOW IS
LOW AND THUS TOO EARLY TO ENTERTAIN IMPACTS OR ACCUMULATIONS.
REGARDLESS OF SNOW POTENTIAL...MOST OF THE REGION WILL CONTEND
WITH NEAR FREEZING TEMPS SUN MORNING AND AGAIN MONDAY MORNING.

[srainhoutx]

HPC thoughts this afternoon. I told wxdata this afternoon that I suspected an active Saturday. Perhaps the night crew will be active tonight with so many aspects to this Potent Storm.

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
356 PM EDT THU MAR 18 2010

VALID 00Z FRI MAR 19 2010 - 00Z MON MAR 22 2010


DAY 1...

ROCKIES TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

A SHARPENING TROUGH OVER THE INTERIOR WEST WILL ALLOW A STRONG
COLD FRONT TO PLUNGE SWD THRU THE PLAINS AS A POLAR SFC HIGH
BUILDS INTO MT AND THE DAKOTAS ON FRI. A PERIOD OF STRONG POST
FRONTAL LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE DIGGING UPPER
ENERGY...RESULTING IN AREAS OF HVY SNOW. 12Z GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR
IN FOCUSING THE HVST SNOW FROM SRN WY TO CNTRL CO....WHERE QPF
TOTALS SUPPORT SOME 8 INCH PLUS SNOW AMTS THRU THE MORE FAVORED
TERRAIN. LIGHTER SNOW SHOULD ALSO SPREAD EWD INTO NE/IA AND NRN
KS AS WEAK ENERGY SHEARS NEWD ON FRI IN THE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

DAYS 2 AND 3...

SRN ROCKIES TO CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...

A LATE WINTER SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED AS ENERGY DIGS INTO THE ACTIVE
SRN JET OVER NM AND TX.
GENERALLY FAVORED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GFS SYNOPTIC PATTERN
AND QPF/PTYPE FIELDS ON D2...AND MOSTLY THE ECMWF ON D3. BOTH
MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE SUPPRESSED WITH DEVELOPING
SYSTEM...REDUCING THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW OVER NRN KS AND
POINTS NEWD. AXIS OF HVST SNOW IS NOW MOST LIKELY FROM THE SERN
QUARTER OF KS TO NRN/CNTRL OK SAT AND SAT NIGHT....WHERE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR LOCALIZED AMTS UP TO 12 INCHES. SNOW SHOULD EXTEND SWD
INTO NORTH TX AS UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE SAT.
INITIALLY WARM GROUND CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL RESULT IN
SUBSTANTIAL MELTING AND HELP TO HINDER ACCUMULATIONS. SOME HVY
SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED FRI NIGHT AND SAT OVER THE SRN ROCKIES AND
HIGH PLAINS...WITH STRONG POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE REACHING INTO THE
MTNS OF SRN CO AND NERN NM. A DEVELOPING COMMA HEAD FEATURE ON
SAT SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVIER SNOW EWD ACROSS THE TX/OK
PANHANDLE BEFORE INTENSIFYING OVER THE SRN PLAINS.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

HEDGE

[wxdata]

Graphic from D/FW NWS

[srainhoutx]

Looking more like the same setup we saw with the Christmas Eve Storm. Saturday evening may get a little interesting in the area with perhaps a bit of wrap around moisture. We shall see, but I hope the is last gasp of winter!

PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
408 AM EDT FRI MAR 19 2010

VALID 12Z FRI MAR 19 2010 - 12Z MON MAR 22 2010


DAYS 1 TO 2...

...CNTRL/SRN ROCKIES...CENTRAL PLAINS...MID MS VLY...

A SHARPENING TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION AND ALLOW A STRONG COLD FRONT TO PLUNGE SOUTH
THRU THE PLAINS AS A POLAR SFC HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON FRI. A PERIOD OF STRONG POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH THE DIGGING UPPER ENERGY/HEIGHT FALLS AS
COLD AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD...RESULTING IN AREAS OF HVY SNOW. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS QUITE CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING HVY
ACCUMULATIONS...INITIALLY OVER NWRN WY AND PARTS OF NERN UT...WITH
THE TETONS AND UINTA RANGES FAVORED...BUT THEN BECOMING MUCH MORE
NOTABLE OVER THE CO HIGH COUNTRY AND DEVELOPING SOUTH DOWN INTO
MUCH OF NRN NM. LESSER...BUT STILL LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMS ARE
EXPECTED DOWN THE IMMEDIATE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE
AREA AS WELL. LOCALIZED SNOWFALL AMTS IN EXCESS OF 1 FOOT ARE
LIKELY OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY.

MEANWHILE...A HVY LATE WINTER SNOWFALL IS STILL EXPECTED TO EVOLVE
OUT ACROSS THE CNTRL U.S. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT FALLS SLIDE
OUT INTO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS ON SAT AND FOSTERS SFC LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE RED RIVER VLY EARLY SAT AND THEN SLOWLY
ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CNTRL AR BY SUN MORNING. GENERALLY
FAVORED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/GFS/UKMET SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH
QPF/PTYPE FAVORING AN ECMWF/GFS BLEND. THIS REFLECTS A TREND TO BE
A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM VERSUS PREV
FORECAST CYCLES. IN ANY EVENT...RAPIDLY COOLING THERMAL COLUMNS
ASSOC WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS AND LOW LVL COLD AIR ADVECTION
POST-FRONTAL SHOULD ALLOW A STRIPE OF LGT TO MDT SNOW TO INITIALLY
DEVELOP AND STREAK OUT ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS ON FRI AND INTO
PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VLY BY EARLY SAT. THIS WILL INCLUDE AN AXIS
FROM N TX/WRN OK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CNTRL/WRN KS AND INTO NWRN
MO/SRN IA. HOWEVER...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ACCUMS OVERALL FOR THE
EVENT SHOULD SET UP SAT/SAT NIGHT ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL/ERN
OK NORTHEAST INTO SERN KS AND WRN MO AS THE STORM INTENSIFIES
COMING OUT OF THE RED RIVER VLY...AND PROMOTES STG DYNAMIC COOLING
WITHIN THE DEVELOPING COMMA-HEAD. LOCALIZED TOTALS IN EXCESS OF 1
FOOT ARE POSSIBLE...ESP OVER ERN OK WHERE A LOW TO MDT RISK OF 12
INCHES IS ADVERTISED. LESSER AMTS ARE PROGGED FARTHER NORTHEAST
ACROSS NRN IL. THE SNOW SHOULD EXTEND AS FAR SOUTH AS NRN/NERN TX
INVOF THE RED RIVER VLY AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE
SAT. INITIALLY WARM GROUND CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS/MIDWEST
WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL MELTING AND HELP TO HINDER
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT HVY SNOWFALL RATES AND WATER EQUIVALENTS
SHOULD HELP TO COMPENSATE.

THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT ICING IS LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

[srainhoutx]

12Z NAM has come in a bit colder and suggests that OKC as well as areas along and N the Red River will see a major snow event. Interestingly the wrap around 'moisture' is mighty close to SE TX. Perhaps some ice pellet/flurries in our northern areas tomorrow evening.

[wxdata]

Morning thoughts from Ft. Worth on snow over North Texas:

"A WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A GRAHAM TO EMORY LINE SATURDAY NIGHT...
AND NORTHEAST OF A BONHAM TO EMORY LINE SUNDAY MORNING. SOME AREAS
CLOSE TO THE RED RIVER COULD SEE UP TO ONE INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATE ON
GRASSY AREAS AND SOME ELEVATED SURFACES BEFORE DAYBREAK SUNDAY. ANY
SNOWFALL SHOULD MELT OFF BY MIDDAY SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO
THE LOWER 40S."

It appears they've taken snow out of the forecast for Dallas/Ft. Worth now.

[srainhoutx]

HGX mentioning a chance of snow flurries Saturday evening into Sunday morning for areas N and E of a Madisonville/Livingston line.

[srainhoutx]

Winter Weather Advisories now up for areas N of Dallas/Ft Worth...

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
318 PM CDT FRI MAR 19 2010


TXZ091>093-100>104-200430-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WW.Y.0005.100320T1400Z-100321T1200Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...DECATUR...
BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...THE COLONY...
PLANO
318 PM CDT FRI MAR 19 2010

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SATURDAY TO 7 AM
CDT SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM SATURDAY
TO 7 AM CDT SUNDAY.

THE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE
FROM GRAHAM...TO PLANO...TO SULPHUR SPRINGS.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S BY NOON
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND RESULT IN WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
SATURDAY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ALL SNOW BY SATURDAY
EVENING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO AVERAGE 1 INCH...BUT COULD BE AS HIGH AS 3 INCHES ALONG THE RED
RIVER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE HIGHER OR LOWER...AND ARE STILL
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION TO THE SNOW...STRONG WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO
40 MPH ARE LIKELY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY RESULT
IN PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

[TexasMetBlake]

Hey, I've seen it snow in April in the Houston CWA. Anything is possible. Again, my answer to everything...