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I edited this to simply say it’s hot and Happy Friday

As long as I have followed Tropical weather, 30+ years. I think this is the first time Ive ever seen NHC issue a cone to one place when the models are still pointing to another. Wow. I know I know. It’s because of the center reformation and models are STILL confused. And yes its going to La. I know...

Well that 60% chance of rain “likely” on Tuesday has been lowered to a 40% “chance” now. Still a long way to go on that one.

From Jeff Lindner a while ago: At 400pm a tropical storm warning has been issued for the US Gulf coast from Intracoastal City, LA to the FL/AL state line. Both satellite derived wind products and the early afternoon USAF mission confirm that 92L has a broad low pressure center over the south-central...

Rip76 wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 17, 2021 2:01 pm

Is the 500mb used to determine steering/motion?

Yep, it’s a great place to start when trying to determine the mean steering flow.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 17, 2021 12:49 pm

If we've learned anything about tropical systems over the past 2 tropical seasons its NWS/NHC Mets > Models. Models are only 1 tool they use.

Sometimes the best thing to do is print out the 500mb NAM charts and do old-fashioned analysis with a pencil

srainhoutx wrote: ↑

Thu Jun 17, 2021 10:47 am

I have almost 19500 posts. I must be trolling too!1!

Yeah but they didn’t all come in the last month

Pas_Bon I said I know, thats why I said I dont care if I have to deal with heavy surf and rain, im still going out boogie boarding But you also just said it was going to make you really mad. So which is it? Are you confused or just trolling? At this point I’m beginning to wonder. The posts are non-...

Not the next couple days, but look towards Sunday through Tuesday morning for rains here with the approaching moisture and front according to the gfs model. A day later on the Ecmwf. 92l should make the next couple days hotter and drier with it's outer subsident and dry air, but can't rule out a se...

Keep this **** away from Florida, I dont need this crap ruining my vacation that we spend months planning for😡 There’s not anything that anybody can do about the weather. It rains in Orlando every day from Mid June-Late September. Always has. If you don’t want rain to interfere with your vacation, ...