June 2025
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tireman4
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- Location: Humble, Texas
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Not sure....did you get his emails? I do not, only because I have not signed up. All I will say on this upcoming swath of rain. We are already at saturation levels. This added extra set of precipitation will test the drainage systems of the metro area.
Coming down in the woods, with some nice lightning as well.
Maybe he has two accounts. This just posted but I don’t see the one you posted earlier
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 6211
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
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Mine was from his Facebook page.jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Jun 11, 2025 11:12 amMaybe he has two accounts. This just posted but I don’t see the one you posted earlier
This is from Lindner's email at 8:30ish.
Subject: Heavy Rainfall Threat
1. Increasing threat for heavy to excessive rainfall through Thursday.
2. Flood Watch issued through Thursday evening north of Houston metro.
3. Moderate risk (level 3 out of 4) for flash flooding northwest of Houston metro today into tonight
4. Slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms near the I-10 corridor today.
Period of active weather continues over the region with next complex of thunderstorms currently approaching from the southwest. This looks to mainly impact areas along and south of I-10 through the morning hours with additional showers and thunderstorms potentially developing this afternoon, although this is somewhat conditional on the local air mass not becoming too worked over by the morning activity. Additional thunderstorm complexes look likely again tonight into Thursday morning arriving from the west.
Formation of a trough over central Texas through the next 48 hours will potentially help drive more sustained clusters and complexes of storms with heavy rainfall becoming an increasing concern. Moisture levels are at or above the 90th percentile for early June and the potential for repeated rounds of thunderstorms will gradually raise the flood and flash flood threat. While the flood watch has been issued for areas north of the Houston metro, confidence is not overly high in the location of various clusters and bands of heavy rainfall with the potential for the watch to be adjusted southward if needed over time.
Rainfall Amounts:
Widespread rainfall totals of 2-4 inches look likely north of I-10 through the next 48 hours with isolated totals of 6-7 inches possible. The HRRR is fairly aggressive with some bigger totals, but looks to be a bit of an outlier at the moment. With that said this is starting to become a more favorable pattern for sustained heavy rainfall and given the moisture in place things could go downhill quickly if any cell training or slower storm motions develop.
Rainfall the last few days has been more hit and miss locally than some areas…especially north of HWY 105 and ground conditions are not overly saturated currently. This likely changes over the next 48 hours as more widespread and repeated rounds of storms impact the area which will over time saturate the ground leading to higher run-off potential. Will need to keep an eye on the areas where rainfall totals pile up for a more pronounced flash flood threat.
Severe:
Slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather generally along the I-10 corridor today. This area looks to have a bit of elevated instability that will produce a low end severe threat of damaging winds and large hail…similar to the last few days. Think the overall threat is isolated and low end given the clouds currently in place and look of the radar to the southwest which shows a more disorganized convective structure this morning. Should this first round get through and clouds clear some, with enough heating additional storms if they are to develop this afternoon could have a higher severe threat compared to the current approaching activity.
Subject: Heavy Rainfall Threat
1. Increasing threat for heavy to excessive rainfall through Thursday.
2. Flood Watch issued through Thursday evening north of Houston metro.
3. Moderate risk (level 3 out of 4) for flash flooding northwest of Houston metro today into tonight
4. Slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe thunderstorms near the I-10 corridor today.
Period of active weather continues over the region with next complex of thunderstorms currently approaching from the southwest. This looks to mainly impact areas along and south of I-10 through the morning hours with additional showers and thunderstorms potentially developing this afternoon, although this is somewhat conditional on the local air mass not becoming too worked over by the morning activity. Additional thunderstorm complexes look likely again tonight into Thursday morning arriving from the west.
Formation of a trough over central Texas through the next 48 hours will potentially help drive more sustained clusters and complexes of storms with heavy rainfall becoming an increasing concern. Moisture levels are at or above the 90th percentile for early June and the potential for repeated rounds of thunderstorms will gradually raise the flood and flash flood threat. While the flood watch has been issued for areas north of the Houston metro, confidence is not overly high in the location of various clusters and bands of heavy rainfall with the potential for the watch to be adjusted southward if needed over time.
Rainfall Amounts:
Widespread rainfall totals of 2-4 inches look likely north of I-10 through the next 48 hours with isolated totals of 6-7 inches possible. The HRRR is fairly aggressive with some bigger totals, but looks to be a bit of an outlier at the moment. With that said this is starting to become a more favorable pattern for sustained heavy rainfall and given the moisture in place things could go downhill quickly if any cell training or slower storm motions develop.
Rainfall the last few days has been more hit and miss locally than some areas…especially north of HWY 105 and ground conditions are not overly saturated currently. This likely changes over the next 48 hours as more widespread and repeated rounds of storms impact the area which will over time saturate the ground leading to higher run-off potential. Will need to keep an eye on the areas where rainfall totals pile up for a more pronounced flash flood threat.
Severe:
Slight risk (level 2 out of 5) for severe weather generally along the I-10 corridor today. This area looks to have a bit of elevated instability that will produce a low end severe threat of damaging winds and large hail…similar to the last few days. Think the overall threat is isolated and low end given the clouds currently in place and look of the radar to the southwest which shows a more disorganized convective structure this morning. Should this first round get through and clouds clear some, with enough heating additional storms if they are to develop this afternoon could have a higher severe threat compared to the current approaching activity.
That explains it!tireman4 wrote: ↑ Mine was from his Facebook page.
75 degrees here with light rain and 1.62” so far today. Pretty nice for June.
Are we to expect another MCS to come through this evening? I've seen mesoscale models that indicate round 2 this evening, and others that keep it in the morning tomorrow.
- Screenshot 2025-06-11 151319.png (536.66 KiB) Viewed 326 times
Afternoon update from Jeff below. My $.02: the southern flank needs to be monitored, meaning the area outlined in the image above. Seems quite plausible.
Ok, Jeffs’s email:
Heavy rainfall and flash flooding possible tonight into Thursday mainly northwest of the Houston metro area
Monitor heavy rainfall trends tonight into early Thursday for any shifts southward in the forecast
A complex forecast for tonight into early Thursday as a broad upper level trough resides over W TX with a very moist air mass over SE TX on the eastern side of the upper level trough. Air mass is into recovery mode after the morning complex of storms and this will continue into the early to mid evening hours with little to no rain/storms expected for the next several hours. After midnight showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop either over central Texas or across the northwest portions of SE TX. These storms may initially show slow storm motions and cell training which will greatly increase excessive rainfall potential and flash flooding. How these storms initially evolve and at what point they begin to push southeastward is uncertain. High resolution guidance today continues to show a persistent signal for storms to develop over the Brazos valley bounded by College Station, Columbus, Conroe, and Hempstead and slowly push southward before gaining a bit more forward speed/progression after daybreak on Thursday. However it is possible that storms could develop either further south or north in this setup…a trend that will need to be watched closely overnight. Recent 18Z HRRR is much more aggressive with the storms firing a bit further southward tonight into the NW side of the metro area…again a trend that will need to be watched closely.
Factors are certainly in place for heavy to excessive rainfall rates including tropical moisture, weak low level inflow off the western Gulf, slightly splitting winds aloft, and generally warm rainfall processes that maximize rainfall efficiency. This setup has some similarities to events in July 2012 and early August 2017 but of which produced slow southward moving heavy rainfall and flooding on the eastern/southern flank of a trough over central Texas. This is the type of situation where things can go “bad” fast as rainfall rates can quickly pile up in a short period of time. I am always a bit nervous with expected heavy rainfall to the northwest as these types of systems like to build southward into the Gulf inflow and we will need to watch for that late tonight into Thursday morning.
Rainfall Amounts:
Rainfall amounts of 2-5 inches are likely tonight into Thursday along and northwest of a line from Columbus to Hempstead to Conroe with isolated higher totals upwards of 8 inches or greater. Some of the more extreme guidance solutions today have suggested upper bound totals of 10-12 inches and this would be considered to higher end worst case scenario. Elsewhere rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches will be common with isolated higher totals. It would not take much of a shift to bring some of the higher totals into Waller, NW Harris, and southern Montgomery Counties and this will need to be watched closely as this area would be more sensitive to heavy rainfall.
Rainfall rates will be key to flash flooding potential with possible hourly rates as high as 2-4 inches per hour given the saturated air column and threat for slow moving or training storms. Street flooding would be likely with these type of rainfall rates.
Grounds are starting to saturate over the area, especially those areas that have seen rainfall amounts the last 2-3 days. Many areas saw 0.5-1.5 inches of rainfall this morning, but in some areas this is on top of previous rainfall this week. Given the increasing soil moisture, run-off will be increasing moving forward and any areas of concentrated heavier rainfall will generate large amounts of run-off and rises on creeks, bayous, and rivers. Current watersheds to at least keep an eye on with the current forecast is the West Fork of the San Jacinto River, Lake Creek, Spring Creek, Cypress Creek, Willow Creek and Little Cypress Creek.
The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked all of SE TX in a slight (level 2 out of 4) and the Brazos Valley area in a moderate (level 3 out of 4) risk for flash flooding tonight:
Potential 24-hr Rainfall Totals…not isolated maximums will be higher:
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
Jeff.Lindner@hcfcd.hctx.net | Twitter: @jefflindner1
Ok, Jeffs’s email:
Heavy rainfall and flash flooding possible tonight into Thursday mainly northwest of the Houston metro area
Monitor heavy rainfall trends tonight into early Thursday for any shifts southward in the forecast
A complex forecast for tonight into early Thursday as a broad upper level trough resides over W TX with a very moist air mass over SE TX on the eastern side of the upper level trough. Air mass is into recovery mode after the morning complex of storms and this will continue into the early to mid evening hours with little to no rain/storms expected for the next several hours. After midnight showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop either over central Texas or across the northwest portions of SE TX. These storms may initially show slow storm motions and cell training which will greatly increase excessive rainfall potential and flash flooding. How these storms initially evolve and at what point they begin to push southeastward is uncertain. High resolution guidance today continues to show a persistent signal for storms to develop over the Brazos valley bounded by College Station, Columbus, Conroe, and Hempstead and slowly push southward before gaining a bit more forward speed/progression after daybreak on Thursday. However it is possible that storms could develop either further south or north in this setup…a trend that will need to be watched closely overnight. Recent 18Z HRRR is much more aggressive with the storms firing a bit further southward tonight into the NW side of the metro area…again a trend that will need to be watched closely.
Factors are certainly in place for heavy to excessive rainfall rates including tropical moisture, weak low level inflow off the western Gulf, slightly splitting winds aloft, and generally warm rainfall processes that maximize rainfall efficiency. This setup has some similarities to events in July 2012 and early August 2017 but of which produced slow southward moving heavy rainfall and flooding on the eastern/southern flank of a trough over central Texas. This is the type of situation where things can go “bad” fast as rainfall rates can quickly pile up in a short period of time. I am always a bit nervous with expected heavy rainfall to the northwest as these types of systems like to build southward into the Gulf inflow and we will need to watch for that late tonight into Thursday morning.
Rainfall Amounts:
Rainfall amounts of 2-5 inches are likely tonight into Thursday along and northwest of a line from Columbus to Hempstead to Conroe with isolated higher totals upwards of 8 inches or greater. Some of the more extreme guidance solutions today have suggested upper bound totals of 10-12 inches and this would be considered to higher end worst case scenario. Elsewhere rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches will be common with isolated higher totals. It would not take much of a shift to bring some of the higher totals into Waller, NW Harris, and southern Montgomery Counties and this will need to be watched closely as this area would be more sensitive to heavy rainfall.
Rainfall rates will be key to flash flooding potential with possible hourly rates as high as 2-4 inches per hour given the saturated air column and threat for slow moving or training storms. Street flooding would be likely with these type of rainfall rates.
Grounds are starting to saturate over the area, especially those areas that have seen rainfall amounts the last 2-3 days. Many areas saw 0.5-1.5 inches of rainfall this morning, but in some areas this is on top of previous rainfall this week. Given the increasing soil moisture, run-off will be increasing moving forward and any areas of concentrated heavier rainfall will generate large amounts of run-off and rises on creeks, bayous, and rivers. Current watersheds to at least keep an eye on with the current forecast is the West Fork of the San Jacinto River, Lake Creek, Spring Creek, Cypress Creek, Willow Creek and Little Cypress Creek.
The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked all of SE TX in a slight (level 2 out of 4) and the Brazos Valley area in a moderate (level 3 out of 4) risk for flash flooding tonight:
- IMG_2140.jpeg (99.98 KiB) Viewed 279 times
- IMG_2141.jpeg (623.2 KiB) Viewed 279 times
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
Jeff.Lindner@hcfcd.hctx.net | Twitter: @jefflindner1
Yeah, we had a brief, but 2.5 in/hour stuff this morning for a 0.63 inch total. But the air is really juicy, yet surprisingly pleasant. Another round this evening would be no surprise. It's feels more east coast summer for sure than Texas.
...and I'm here for that.
...and I'm here for that.
Stratton, I do have to say, you kept harping for months about this Summer possibly being a lot less shitty than recent Summers and thus far,, that’s held true. I’m loving this pattern.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t most of the HOU metro get exactly 0.00” of rain all of last June?
Correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t most of the HOU metro get exactly 0.00” of rain all of last June?
I too, am here for this.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Wed Jun 11, 2025 4:50 pm Yeah, we had a brief, but 2.5 in/hour stuff this morning for a 0.63 inch total. But the air is really juicy, yet surprisingly pleasant. Another round this evening would be no surprise. It's feels more east coast summer for sure than Texas.
...and I'm here for that.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 5419
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
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Haha , i think our saving grace for this summer is that we will remain in enso neutral conditions until peak hurricane season in which i believe we will be heading into another la nina event, we will still have periods of very hot weather this summer, but im definitely pretty optimistic chances of rain will be more plentiful in july- september
Video update from Jeff. The flood watch should be extended further south also...not sure what HGX is thinking.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQTGpu053UI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sQTGpu053UI