NOAA is back towards forecasting near normal- above normal rainfall over texas in the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks, any big heat ridge looks to be pretty short lived, honestly it looks like the western US may take the worst of the heat in the medium range ( aside from this week here in which it will b...

91L was never going to be a texas problem though, the upper level pattern was never right for that, could see a lemon issued in the NE gulf in the coming week, ensembles favor strong ridging over the SE US meaning anything that tries to form in the NE gulf or east of florida would likely get steered...

Looks like the pattern turns hotter/ drier for us after today

Made a comment on herzogs post from yesterday about how much i enjoy enjoy the rain, and immediately i get blasted for folks saying “ I must enjoy flooding” Or guess you never lost anything in harvey “ it truly is sad that you cant post an opinion about weather on social media without getting bashed...

Cogrove mentioned a potential tropical threat to texas or lousiana in the 6-10 day range , not sure what hes seeing because i see absolutely nothing in the models

Man if the GFS is correct, we could be seeing alot of tropical moisture being pumped into the state over the next several weeks

GFS / GEFS show alot of tropical moisture building across CA with a active CAG , something to watch in the coming weeks with texas being between two ridges of high pressure, that opens up a lane for tropical moisture to funnel into the state, but maybe some mischief as well, worth watching give. how...

The ridge thats building in is just temporary, its going to move out by thursday, even then rain chances are still around 30% because its not an overly strong ridge. Rain chances are still looking decent the next several weeks, maybe some drier days in between, but the real blast furnace weather loo...

Im cautiously optimistic this summer is going to be a near carbon copy of 2021, the death ridge really looks like it wants to lock over the eastern US, they could get absolutely crushed by heat over the next several weeks, we look to continue daily chances for storms with more normal summer time tem...

Getting absolutely hammered by a cell thats become stationary right over katy

Eastern US could get crushed by heat ridging for the foreseeable future, modes really seem to bounce the heat ridge back from west to east, but never permanently sitting over texas, i feel good about rain chances continuing well into july/ august if we can keep that death ridge moving, but of course...

Cpv17 yup, at the very least i think we get a surge of moisture from this, but given some places in se texas saw 6-15 inches of rain last night from the storms, the grounds will be saturated, if we get even a weak sloppy sheared system to go in even in south texas, that would still spread heavy rain...

The ICON rides up the mexican coast just off shore as it heads towards potentially south texas

Cpv17 yeah worth watching, im watching the 500 mb height pattern to see if we get a weakness over texas, CMC shows that somewhat, steering collapses over south texas, system stalls out, GFS kinda hinted at that on the 06z run compared to 12z

00z HRRR with a max bullseye of 20-25 inches in fort bend county, that would be absolutely devastating

Haha , i think our saving grace for this summer is that we will remain in enso neutral conditions until peak hurricane season in which i believe we will be heading into another la nina event, we will still have periods of very hot weather this summer, but im definitely pretty optimistic chances of r...

Keep in mind though, quieter doesnt also necessarily a good thing, some of the most damaging hurricanes on record have occured in less active seasons in the atlantic, ill also point out that the gulf is well on its way to having record breaking upper ocean heat content energy, so thats something to ...

Id still say we should keep an eye on that potential disturbance in the BOC, GFS has a weakness in the ridge allowing something to move into south texas and kind of just meander around inland , Euro has a weak cut off low that could erode the ridge over the gulf, definitely not set in stone that wha...

06z HRRR has between 7-15 inches for parts of se texas throufh friday, wednesday afternoon- early Friday morning is looking concerning

Wouldn’t be surprised to see FFW’s issued tommorow as a very slow moving upper low lingers in texas through friday, HRRR shows significant rains right across the heart of downtown