Tropical Discussion 2025

[Cpv17]

I’m beginning to become more interested in what could happen late next week around here. If this possible disturbance rides the coast and gets sucked up N by a trough, it could be a huge rainmaker for us.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yeah worth watching, im watching the 500 mb height pattern to see if we get a weakness over texas, CMC shows that somewhat, steering collapses over south texas, system stalls out, GFS kinda hinted at that on the 06z run compared to 12z

[Pas_Bon]

I’m beginning to become more interested in what could happen late next week around here. If this possible disturbance rides the coast and gets sucked up N by a trough, it could be a huge rainmaker for us.

For the first time in years, I’m going to hope to God this does not come to fruition.

[biggerbyte]

I’m beginning to become more interested in what could happen late next week around here. If this possible disturbance rides the coast and gets sucked up N by a trough, it could be a huge rainmaker for us.

For the first time in years, I’m going to hope to God this does not come to fruition.

The Euro is not currently on board with this scenario. Otherwise, there is some support. Looking at the some of the models today it suggest any Gulf impact would be Mexico or southern portions of Texas. After all of the rain we've been having, the potential for a tropical system up in here would be absolutely over the top.

[Stratton20]

The ICON rides up the mexican coast just off shore as it heads towards potentially south texas

[Cpv17]

The ICON rides up the mexican coast just off shore as it heads towards potentially south texas

Definitely not writing this off yet.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yup, at the very least i think we get a surge of moisture from this, but given some places in se texas saw 6-15 inches of rain last night from the storms, the grounds will be saturated, if we get even a weak sloppy sheared system to go in even in south texas, that would still spread heavy rains in se texas which could create huge issues, also tommorow may see some more storms which will only aggravate the flooding issues

[Pas_Bon]

Google’s DeepMind AI hurricane model was just released for public consumption. According to a few seasoned mets, it vastly out-performed the ECMWF the past 2 seasons in its “Beta” runs.

Could be a game-changer….here it is:
https://deepmind.google.com/science/weatherlab

[Ptarmigan]

Cpv17 yup, at the very least i think we get a surge of moisture from this, but given some places in se texas saw 6-15 inches of rain last night from the storms, the grounds will be saturated, if we get even a weak sloppy sheared system to go in even in south texas, that would still spread heavy rains in se texas which could create huge issues, also tommorow may see some more storms which will only aggravate the flooding issues

Kinda like Tropical Storm Arlene in 1993. It made landfall on South Texas as a sloppy sheared tropical storm. There was heavy rain over a large portion of Texas. The heaviest rain fell well away from the center.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/ ... e1993.html