Tropical Discussion 2025

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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I’m beginning to become more interested in what could happen late next week around here. If this possible disturbance rides the coast and gets sucked up N by a trough, it could be a huge rainmaker for us.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 yeah worth watching, im watching the 500 mb height pattern to see if we get a weakness over texas, CMC shows that somewhat, steering collapses over south texas, system stalls out, GFS kinda hinted at that on the 06z run compared to 12z
Pas_Bon
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Cpv17 wrote: Thu Jun 12, 2025 11:37 am I’m beginning to become more interested in what could happen late next week around here. If this possible disturbance rides the coast and gets sucked up N by a trough, it could be a huge rainmaker for us.

For the first time in years, I’m going to hope to God this does not come to fruition.
biggerbyte
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Pas_Bon wrote: Thu Jun 12, 2025 1:14 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Thu Jun 12, 2025 11:37 am I’m beginning to become more interested in what could happen late next week around here. If this possible disturbance rides the coast and gets sucked up N by a trough, it could be a huge rainmaker for us.

For the first time in years, I’m going to hope to God this does not come to fruition.

The Euro is not currently on board with this scenario. Otherwise, there is some support. Looking at the some of the models today it suggest any Gulf impact would be Mexico or southern portions of Texas. After all of the rain we've been having, the potential for a tropical system up in here would be absolutely over the top.
Stratton20
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The ICON rides up the mexican coast just off shore as it heads towards potentially south texas
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jun 12, 2025 3:35 pm The ICON rides up the mexican coast just off shore as it heads towards potentially south texas
Definitely not writing this off yet.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 yup, at the very least i think we get a surge of moisture from this, but given some places in se texas saw 6-15 inches of rain last night from the storms, the grounds will be saturated, if we get even a weak sloppy sheared system to go in even in south texas, that would still spread heavy rains in se texas which could create huge issues, also tommorow may see some more storms which will only aggravate the flooding issues
Pas_Bon
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Google’s DeepMind AI hurricane model was just released for public consumption. According to a few seasoned mets, it vastly out-performed the ECMWF the past 2 seasons in its “Beta” runs.

Could be a game-changer….here it is:
https://deepmind.google.com/science/weatherlab
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Ptarmigan
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jun 12, 2025 5:00 pm Cpv17 yup, at the very least i think we get a surge of moisture from this, but given some places in se texas saw 6-15 inches of rain last night from the storms, the grounds will be saturated, if we get even a weak sloppy sheared system to go in even in south texas, that would still spread heavy rains in se texas which could create huge issues, also tommorow may see some more storms which will only aggravate the flooding issues
Kinda like Tropical Storm Arlene in 1993. It made landfall on South Texas as a sloppy sheared tropical storm. There was heavy rain over a large portion of Texas. The heaviest rain fell well away from the center.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/ ... e1993.html
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tireman4
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000
WTPZ35 KNHC 181442
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erick Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
900 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025

...ERICK RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AND FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 96.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning west
of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana.

The Hurricane Watch from east of Puerto Angel to Bahias de Huatulco
has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Acapulco to Puerto Angel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Puerto Angel to Salina Cruz
* West of Acapulco to Tecpan de Galeana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southern Mexico should monitor the progress
of Erick.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Erick was located
near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 96.0 West. Erick is moving
toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northwestward motion
with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected later today or
tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Erick is expected to
approach the coast of southern Mexico late tonight and move inland
or be near the coast on Thursday.

Erick is rapidly intensifying, and maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid
strengthening is expected to continue today, and Erick is forecast
to reach major hurricane strength tonight or early Thursday as it
approaches the coast of southern Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Hurricane Erick can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header
WTPZ45 KNHC.

RAINFALL: Erick will produce rainfall totals of 8 to 16 inches, with
maximum totals of 20 inches, across the Mexican states of Oaxaca and
Guerrero. This rainfall will lead to life-threatening flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches, with maximum totals of 6 inches, are expected across
Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Michoacan, Colima,
Jalisco and Mexico City.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Erick, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area early Thursday and possible in the hurricane watch area on
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the
warning area by this evening or overnight, and preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area
beginning late today and tonight.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal
flooding near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast
in areas of onshore winds. The surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Erick will continue affecting the coast of
southern Mexico through Thursday. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Hagen
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tireman4
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000
WTPZ45 KNHC 181442
TCDEP5

Hurricane Erick Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052025
900 AM CST Wed Jun 18 2025

Erick has become significantly better organized with an increasingly
symmetric and large central convective area with very cold cloud
tops. GOES satellite imagery also shows impressive banding
structures both to the north and south of the central convective
area. The latest subjective Dvorak numbers from TAFB and SAB range
from 65-77 kt, while the recent ADT estimate is in the 65-70 kt
range. Since the time of the subjective estimates at 12Z, GOES
images suggest that the inner-core stucture has improved
significantly and an eye may be forming. The intensity is
therefore increased to 75 kt for this advisory, and Erik has begun
its anticipated period of rapid intensification. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to Erick,
which should provide a better estimate of the intensity.

Erick continues moving to the northwest, or 310/7 kt. This general
motion, along with perhaps a slight acceleration, is expected
through landfall, which is forecast to occur early Thursday along
the southern coast of Mexico. The track guidance remains in good
agreement, and confidence in the overall track is high. Users should
keep in mind that small track deviations could still lead to
significant changes in where the strongest winds and coastal impacts
occur due to the oblique angle of approach. The official forecast
track is unchanged from the previous advisory and lies very close to
the HCCA aid.

Very favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions surround Erick,
with warm ocean waters, low vertical wind shear and a moist
mid-level troposphere, and these conditions are expected to persist
through landfall. The 06Z HAFS models are forecasting Erick to
become a major hurricane. The various SHIPS rapid intensification
indices indicate a high likelihood of continued rapid strengthening
over the next 24 h, which would result in Erick becoming a major
hurricane. The new NHC forecast explicitly shows Erick becoming a
major hurricane, but it's possible this forecast could be
conservative, especially if the current trend of improved structure
continues today.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Erick is rapidly intensifying and is expected to be a major
hurricane when it reaches the coast of western Oaxaca or eastern
Guerrero within the hurricane warning area on Thursday. Devastating
wind damage is possible where the core of the storm moves onshore.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

2. Erick will produce heavy rainfall across portions of Central
America and Southwest Mexico through this week. Life-threatening
flooding and mudslides are likely, especially in areas of steep
terrain.

3. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding
near and to the east of where the center crosses the coast, in
areas of onshore winds.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 13.9N 96.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 14.5N 96.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 15.9N 98.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 17.4N 99.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hagen
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tireman4
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Site logo image The Eyewall
Pacific Hurricane Erick on the way to becoming a major hurricane and impacting Mexico
By Matt Lanza on June 18, 2025

In brief: Hurricane Erick is expected to make landfall early Thursday morning in the state of Guerrero, east of Acapulco in Mexico as a major hurricane. Heavy rain, bad surge, and powerful winds will impact the Mexico coasts of eastern Guerrero and Oaxaca. In the U.S., a major heat wave will rev up this weekend and next week in the East.

Hurricane Erick
One look at Erick on satellite this afternoon, and you can see that this thing is well put together.


Hurricane Erick is a category 2 storm likely heading to at least category 3 intensity before making landfall in coastal early Thursday morning. (Weathernerds.org)
Erick was a 50 mph tropical storm this time on Tuesday, and it's now a 100 mph hurricane. While there is still some uncertainty on how high Erick's ceiling is, the track is coming into pretty clear focus now. Erick should make landfall later tonight in eastern Guerrero in Mexico, with significant impacts there (east of Acapulco) and in Oaxaca. Hurricane warnings extend from Acapulco to Puerto Angel, with hurricane watches west of Acapulco and tropical storm warnings on both sides of the hurricane warnings.


(Tomer Burg)
Erick is rapidly intensifying, and several models are pushing Erick into major hurricane status by tonight. Given that satellite loop above and the conditions ahead of Erick near the coast of Mexico, I see no reason why Erick won't be at least a low-end Cat 3 when it makes landfall tonight.

Obviously, Erick will bring a high end hurricane impact to the coast of Mexico tonight near and especially east of where it comes ashore, which includes much of Oaxaca. But impacts will go far beyond just wind and surge. In fact, rainfall forecasts call for a total of 16 to 20 inches (400-500 mm) of rain in coastal Oaxaca.


Total rainfall expected from Erick. (NOAA WPC)
This will be a very bad night in coastal Oaxaca and portions of coastal Guerrero. Thought with folks there as the first big storm of the 2025 season bears down on Mexico.

Erick will dissipate over Mexico as it lifts north inland over the mountains.

Eastern U.S. heat wave upcoming
With the rest of the tropics quiet at this time, we'll take a quick look at the upcoming heat wave that's expected to unfurl over the Eastern United States. An extremely impressive and large area of sprawling high pressure is going to intensify and expand over the eastern half of the country this weekend and next week.


Very strong high pressure will expand and intensify next week in the East, allowing for some serious summer heat. (Pivotal Weather)
In some areas, it'll be interesting to see just how strong this ridge gets, with the Euro ensemble suggesting that there's a non-zero chance that upper level heights will reach all-time records.


A 20 to 30 percent probability of all-time record high 500 mb heights exists next week over the Mid-Atlantic. (Tomer Burg/PolarWx)
This type of heat event will likely threaten a number of records in the Midwest, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic next week. In fact, you can see based on current NWS forecasts (which are often somewhat conservative 6 to 7 days out), we've got several dozen record warm minimums forecast or threatened and several record highs as well.


Numerous record warm minimum temperatures are forecast on Tuesday. (NOAA)
It's the nighttime minimum temperatures that never cool off that can separate a bad heat wave from an unbearably bad one. So seeing this many forecast records this far ahead of the event is impressive and concerning. Heat precautions will be advised next week in the East!

The pattern should relax some later in the week.
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tireman4
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The quiet Atlantic rolls on, so we look at a major Eastern heat wave
June 20, 2025 at 11:40 am by Matt Lanza
In brief: We explain what’s behind the quiet Atlantic start this season. We also look at how wet bulb globe temperatures can more adequately qualify the severity of the heat next week in the Eastern U.S.

The calm Atlantic continues
This morning at our Houston-focused site, Space City Weather, I explained to our local audience sort of why things have been quiet in the Atlantic. I am reposting that here today, as we have no further items to discuss at this point in time tropics-wise.

Today is June 20th, and to this point I don’t think we’ve said a word at Space City Weather about hurricanes or tropical storms. It’s a refreshing change of pace after recent seasons. In fact, the last year that we did not have a storm in the Atlantic before July 1st was back in 2014. It’s been a while.


All’s quiet for now. (NOAA NHC)
Meanwhile, the Pacific has been churning out storms apace this season, with five so far. Of course, only one of them (Erick, which just made landfall yesterday) was a big storm. Still, the conditions to this point this hurricane season have strongly favored the Pacific. You can thank dust and wind shear in the Atlantic for one, but those things aren’t abnormal, even in recent Junes. So there has to be more at play here.


Rising air has been centered on southeast Asia and Central America so far this month, with most of the Atlantic in a generally unfavorable background state. (NOAA)
We often talk about the “background state” of the atmosphere. You have individual tropical waves and systems and such through the year, but the background state is important. Are the overarching global weather conditions favorable for development or unfavorable? So far this June, we’ve had the majority of rising air, or a “favorable” background state for tropical development sitting over Central America. Rising air is what helps thunderstorms to develop. Since tropical weather generally moves east to west across the planet, this has meant that most seedlings for development are being planted in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Sinking air sits over Africa and extends all the way across to the Caribbean islands. Sinking air tends to suppress cloud development and dry the air out a bit. By the time any waves can really get going, they more than likely end up over land or kicked into the Pacific.

Over the next couple weeks, this pattern is unlikely to change a whole heck of a lot, but we may start to see slightly more favorable conditions emerge over Africa or the far eastern Atlantic by early July. That said, there are no guarantees that actually means anything. Realistically, the next 7 to 10 days look calm and the 10-to-14-day period has no signs of meaningful change yet.

We do still expect an average to above average hurricane season; June’s activity has no real correlation to the rest of the season, so you can’t decipher any relationships. But when you can get a hassle-free month in hurricane season, you take it without complaints.

Bottom line: You still have time to prepare for hurricane season.

Qualifying a major heat wave
No, it’s not “just summer.” The upcoming heat wave in the Eastern U.S. is expected to break a number of records.


A map showing sites that may threaten or easily break record highs next Tuesday based on the current NOAA temperature forecast. (NOAA)
In Houston, we’ve adapted our readers to looking at heat in a more nuanced way. Heat and humidity are common issues here in Texas. We deal with low to mid 90s almost daily from June through early September, with a face-full of humidity and hotter temps periodically peppered in. It’s not pleasant. So things like “heat index,” which is commonly referred to as real-feel or apparent temperature doesn’t always help us to explain heat. Some days can have a 105 degree or 110 degree heat index, but what does it actually mean?

That’s why we often utilize the wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) for expressing heat risks here in Texas. Our forecast is pretty normal right now, without any real significant heat on the horizon. So when you look at our WBGT, you’ll see it sits in the moderate to high range for the next week. High heat is normal in Southeast Texas. But we do not rise to the level of extreme with this forecast.


Wet bulb globe temperature forecast for Houston, TX shows moderate to high heat over the next week, fairly common this time of year. (Weather Bell)
What is WBGT? It factors in more than heat index (which is just temperature and humidity). A heat index of 105 in Houston means something much different than a heat index of 105 in New York City. So we need more variables. WBGT factors in latitude, sun angle (time of year), wind, cloud cover, temperature, and humidity. It’s a lot more “stuff” than just heat index, so it becomes more valuable. It also helps that it’s a medically accepted guideline for qualifying heat as extreme or high.

So what of the upcoming heat in the Eastern U.S.? Well, let’s let the WBGT guide us. Let’s start in New York City, which is of course the center of the universe. The upcoming heat rises to “extreme” levels by a fair margin.


The heat next week in New York can be qualified as “extreme” and hazardous. (Weather Bell)
This is a hazardous heat for the City. Even at night, we still retain moderate heat values which can cause problems of its own.

Let’s look at Richmond, Virginia. There, where higher heat is a little more common, the WBGT levels are forecast to just barely get to extreme levels.


The heat in Richmond, VA is more high than extreme, meaning that the relative impact of heat is probably going to be higher in NYC than in Virginia. (Weather Bell)
Since the region of the country is what sets the scale, extreme heat starts with a WBGT of 84 in New York but 90 in Richmond. Let’s move to Chicago, where they’ll likely see borderline extreme heat too.


Borderline extreme heat will occur in Chicago this weekend and Monday. (Weather Bell)
While the focus is on the East, let’s not forget the Upper Midwest. A short-lived but powerful dose of heat is going to set in this weekend, with Minneapolis likely experiencing two days of extreme heat before temperature fall off a cliff.


Minneapolis will have some of the relatively hottest air of all this weekend. (Weather Bell)
In some places, the heat is going to sit around deep into next week, and it’s possible that some forecasts will need to be adjusted hotter over time. The ridge of high pressure responsible for this heat wave should begin to break down next weekend.

So what is the point of this? Extreme heat is not “just summer,” and when you utilize metrics like WBGT, the data becomes very clear. Also critical is the duration of the heat and how warm it stays overnight. In New York, for example, nighttime lows may struggle to drop below 80 degrees. That is exceptionally warm there. Going back to the 1860s, Central Park has only recorded 69 nights that failed to drop below 80 degrees. Over a third of those have occurred in just the last 30 years, due in part to climate change and warming oceans. It’s been a minute since nighttime temperatures that warm have occurred in New York, with the last 80 degree night recorded in July 2020. The longer those warm nights occur, the more compounding impact the daytime heat has, and the more hazardous it becomes, particularly for elderly people and those with poor air conditioning.

Anyway, bottom line, be smart about the heat in the East next week. Practice heat safety and drink plenty of water.
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tireman4
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Great write up from Josh
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Cogrove mentioned a potential tropical threat to texas or lousiana in the 6-10 day range , not sure what hes seeing because i see absolutely nothing in the models
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The Eyewall
Sneaky subtropical Atlantic system no threat to land, Eastern heat wave blasts onward, flooding in New Mexico
By Matt Lanza on June 23, 2025

In brief: Our first investigative area of hurricane season has formed in the Atlantic, but Invest 90L will not threaten any land. Meanwhile, heat roasts the East this week, while flooding threatens New Mexico.

Subtropical mischief from Invest 90L
It's easy to get so caught up in looking at the corridor between the Gulf, Caribbean, and Africa that mid-latitude systems out in the open Atlantic can sometimes just get lumped in with background noise. Indeed, it appears that this may be one of those cases.


A subtropical system may have a very, very brief window to develop before midweek. (NOAA NHC)
Invest 90L, our first "area of investigation" this season won't be winning any hurricane look-a-like contests, but conditions may briefly be favorable for a burst of quick development before it launches out to sea. There is zero threat to land from 90L. It's more of a curiosity than anything.


Invest 90L has a slight chance to develop before Tuesday. If it misses the window, it's unlikely to do so. (Weathernerds.org)
This one would firmly fall into the stat padding category for the season should it develop, though it would contribute virtually nothing to the overall depiction of the season beyond perhaps a name off the board. But it's a sign that even in a generally unfavorable overall pattern, something can still spin up.

Rest of this week in the tropics
Quiet. There's no sign that the overarching dominant pattern of "hostile" will change anytime soon. The medium range models which go out 10 to 14 days generally look quiet as well. We do expect the Pacific to continue somewhat active with another system likely later this week. But for the Atlantic, the best you'll get out of this pattern in all likelihood is something either like we see in the North Atlantic right now, or some currently un-forecast complex of thunderstorms that ends up in the Gulf or off the Southeast coast. Good news for those of us that want calm.

Heat bakes on
The Eastern U.S. heatwave is going to continue onward. Some notable numbers from this weekend: Prior to Saturday, only 31 nights on record in Minneapolis had failed to drop below 80 degrees. Saturday was 32 and Sunday was 33. Sunday's 82 degrees ties for the fourth warmest low temperature on record and first time since the Dust Bowl era that Minneapolis has been so warm at night. Yesterday was also the first time since 2019 that Chicago failed to drop below 80 degrees.

Heading into the next couple days, the heat will begin to peak in the Eastern U.S., with numerous records likely to be threatened or fall. The most impressive on the list below for some selected major cities is probably the 1888 record in New York City that should fall tomorrow or the 1923 record in Philly.


Whatever the case, there is a massive swath of the country under heat advisories and warnings. Models continue to suggest that upper level "heights" in the atmosphere have a fairly decent chance at breaking all-time records in parts of Virginia based on the historical data we have. And there's a very good chance they'll be setting new June records. Heights can help us determine the intensity of a ridge or trough in the atmosphere. The higher the values, the stronger the heat can be this time of year.


European ensemble model depiction of probability that 500 mb heights set annual records on Monday afternoon. (Polarwx.com)
The good news is that as the week progresses, the ridge should break down, slowly. This will accelerate over the weekend and next week, allowing heat to rebuild in places to the west, like the Plains and Texas and possibly Southwest.

Southwest flooding risk
This pattern setup is allowing for a feed of monsoonal moisture from the Pacific into New Mexico and parts of West Texas. This, combined with a number of favorable factors for significant rain is likely to put a pretty substantial flooding risk into New Mexico and perhaps portions of western Texas tomorrow.


(NWS Albuquerque)
Burn scar flooding and mudslide risk is a major concern in New Mexico. But all forms of flooding look to be in high supply tomorrow. Conditions should ease up some in the back half of the week.


Total expected rainfall through midweek in New Mexico. (Pivotal Weather)
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tireman4
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National Hurricane Center
@NHC_Atlantic
·
3m
NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Storm Andrea, located over the central subtropical Atlantic, at 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC).
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tireman4
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Dylan Federico
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#BREAKING: Tropical Storm #ANDREA forms over the North Atlantic.

Andrea is expected to be a short-lived storm, is going out to sea, and is only a problem for the fish!

#TropicalUpdate 🌀🐠🐟
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In the time it took you to make that sandwich, Tropical Storm Andrea developed and dissipated
By Matt Lanza on June 25, 2025

In brief: Tropical Storm Andrea formed yesterday -- and dissipated yesterday. Heat records were shattered on Tuesday in the East, but the heat will slowly fade away now. Flooding risks continue in New Mexico, and more rain is likely on the way for the Southwest next week.

Atlantic
This morning, we start with a tribute to Tropical Storm Andrea. It formed yesterday morning around 10 AM Central Time. It left us a full 12 hours later. It fought a courageous battle but was ultimately no match colder water temperatures, drier air, and wind shear. Andrea set an example that all other tropical systems should seek to follow between now and November. For that, we are grateful.


All that remains of Tropical Storm Andrea is this swirl and the memories. (Weathernerds.org)
In all seriousness, with Andrea coming and going, the Atlantic looks to remain quiet for the next week or more. The Pacific will awaken again this weekend or so.

Heat records obliterated
Let's just talk for a moment about the heat yesterday in the East. On Monday, we saw outrageous dewpoints. Yesterday was about temperatures. State temperature records for June were tied or broken in Vermont, Maine, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Maryland.

🌡️7 STATES BREAKING A FULL STATE MONTHLY RECORDon the same day is something we saw very few times in the past 150 years in USAToday is ONE OF THOSEA small list of the several hundreds June records broken which includes NYC,Boston,Newark,Baltimore,Providence etc..👇

— Extreme Temperatures Around the World (@extremetemps.bsky.social) 2025-06-25T00:32:34.582Z

For Boston, 102° was their hottest June day on record and 4th hottest day overall on record. Providence saw their hottest June day on record and 6th hottest overall day on record. It wasn't just the mayoral primary heating up in New York City. Central Park's 99 degrees was a record for the date, but it fell short of June's temperature record of 101°. LaGuardia's 101° ties the June record. 102° at JFK Airport was tied for 3rd hottest all-time and set a new June record. The 103° in Newark, NJ ties for 12th hottest on record and ties the all-time June record. Shout out to my hometown of Atlantic City, tying for 6th hottest day on record at 102°. The hottest day on record was in June of 1969. Philly hit 101°, while Baltimore and DC were comparatively cooler at 98° and 99° respectively.

The heat will begin to ebb now. Another round of multiple temperature records are possible in the Northeast Corridor again today, but they will fall short of yesterday in most cases.


Another spate of records should be broken or tied today, but in most cases they'll fall a good deal short of yesterday's values. (NOAA)
Notice how nationally (at the top of the image above) the number of records threatened drops off dramatically after today. The number of nighttime low warm records is pretty wild, but that's worthy of another post on another day.

Desert Southwest soaking
Parts of New Mexico have received 3 to 6 inches of rain in the last 24 to 48 hours, triggering multiple flash flood warnings across the state on Tuesday.


Significant rainfall as high as 3 to 6 inches has fallen in the last 24 to 48 hours across parts of New Mexico. (NOAA NSSL)
Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely today but hopefully in a more isolated fashion. Several more inches of rain may fall in parts of the state however before all is said and done.


(NWS Albuquerque)
Looking farther out in time, it looks like monsoon season is really going to begin to flex in the Southwest next week, with heavy rain possible again in New Mexico but also perhaps parts of Arizona and West Texas.


Rainfall as much as 200 to 300 percent of normal is possible next week and weekend across the Desert Southwest as monsoon season ramps up. (StormVista Weather Models)
Keep in mind that 300 percent of normal in the Desert Southwest equates to about an inch or so of rain. So from that standpoint, it's not a ton. That being said, some operational modeling does hint at higher totals than this. This far out, you're just looking for a signal, and that signal is clearly pointing to an uptick in rainfall there.

Where does heat go next?
Heat will fade in the East, as we noted above. So where does it go next? Well over the next week or so, any heat should be transient in nature, meaning it'll come and go in spots. Some places that may see an uptick in stronger heat include the Upper Midwest (Minneapolis could push into the 90s this weekend). The interior Northwest could see a burst of heat next week, with Spokane pushing the mid-90s by Monday or Tuesday. Thereafter, it may be Texas that sees the heat too.


Day 11 to 15 temperature anomalies show Texas heating up later next week with 100s possible in Dallas and upper-90s in Houston. (Tropical Tidbits)
Summer doing summer things after an extreme late June for parts of the country.

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biggerbyte
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Stratton20 wrote: Sun Jun 22, 2025 12:01 pm Cogrove mentioned a potential tropical threat to texas or lousiana in the 6-10 day range , not sure what hes seeing because i see absolutely nothing in the models
I don't get or see it either.
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