GFS has a weak system coming in from the BOC as of this writing. So far it's the only model. Unfortunately for Florida this system coming out of the Caribbean shows to get them another round of nasty.

Well we've gone back to a strong potential for major status well offshore. Helene is determined and defiant. All of that shear yesterday and now here we are again. Conditions otherwise were/are prime for RI. I hope folks in Florida stay tuned in daily for forecast changes..When it comes to Tropical ...

Tomorrow will be very telling. Right now it looks to hit major status right before landfall. We will see about that. This is a change from previous suggestions of being a major long before.

Helene is getting a beating from shear for the time being, and she could get in on a little land interaction. Things continue to look better as far as intensity at landfall goes. However, that is subject to change. I'd bet the NHC updated report does not show a major.

Forever changing forecasts. Today things looks a little better than yesterday. There seems to be a little drop in the intensity forecast, and this systems landfall location keeps shifting eastward. Even a Cat. 2 is no picnic, but compared to a 4 or 5..

I have this horrible sinking feeling. God bless all involved.

This is a very sad day for the weather community. Major potential has increased today. My prayers go out in advance to anyone in the path of this system. If any of you have family in the panhandle of Florida, or even anywhere in the realm of uncertainty. ..

The folks in the north and northeast gulf coast will be ground zero with this one. There could even be another system follow this exact path a few days out. This pattern is great for Texas. We don't need another Beryl around here. One is one too many. God help those that are not so fortunate. There ...

If this turns out to be anything of substance the poor folks in Florida are in the bullseye today. The models kept insisting on high pressure protecting them this round. Of course at this juncture this could change, but the trend has been the Florida panhandle the last few runs.

Today is a perfect example of how we follow the chatter about potential tropical systems. The models change daily. We are closing in on getting an idea of what to expect in the Gulf over the next few days. If you all remember, just a few days ago it looked like Armageddon was coming. Not so much Tex...

Agreed..The GFS is super whacked right now.

The only good tropical system is a dead one. Flip flopping is to be expected. It flipped yesterday from the day before. Now it's flipping again. I don't see how Florida could get this one with the possible upcoming pattern. North Central Gulf was always an option. Let's be careful about counting our...

For sure. I have a feeling this thread is going to get plenty of use.

The AIFS has done really well this season. Both it and the GFS spell trouble for Tx/La. This is all several days away, so expect changes, or not. The GFS just yesterday was Florida, as an example. Steering patterns look ideal for a NW to Northern Gulf landfall. Texas is on the scope of possibilities...

Folks, models are trending more west now. It's all about timing, but there is some potential for a major impacting Texas over to just east of Louisian.. At this time the most likely strike points would be east of Texas. The fact that we are being mentioned at all with a nasty cane involved is an eye...

Well, the GFS looks interesting today.

Man, someone is way off. Heinz 57 is calling a TS into Tx/La.

There are good points to be had. Any possibility at all, especially for us in Texas bears watching. I agree that no matter how it looks, several possibilities are being thrown around. Watch what happens with the disturbance in the gulf coupled with this next system crossing over into the BOC. If you...

We can't say 100% where this is going, but we know where it's been. Texas getting tropical mischief so early in season was a clue that something is just not right.. I'll say that any and all are capable of getting the forecasts wrong. It's the nature of the beast. I've seen a lot of mean comments in...

What a change few weeks make. Everyone is Texas and Louisiana should pay close attention to what transpires in the weather department. There are a handful of possibilities over the next ten days. The outcome is going to be determined by three possible influences. A front, trough, and ridge can take ...