August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[Stratton20]

CPV17 meanwhile even the 00z CMC has shifted west significantly around New Orleans

[Cpv17]

CPV17 meanwhile even the 00z CMC has shifted west significantly around New Orleans

Check out the 0z GEFS. It’s everywhere lol

[Stratton20]

Yep I saw, but even the GEFS ensemble has trended further west

[Texaspirate11]

Tropical Depression Seven Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021
200 AM AST Sat Aug 14 2021

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...

[sambucol]

Yep I saw, but even the GEFS ensemble has trended further west

Is that for Grace?

[Texaspirate11]

Yep I saw, but even the GEFS ensemble has trended further west

Is that for Grace?

Yes Grace was designated a TS last night

[Scott747]

Can't say I'm a huge fan of the ICON (even though I grew up in Germany) but it also has been decent in picking up on a change on the atmosphere.

12z was a sizable jump towards the wgom with an organized system. Now we wait to see if any other models hint at something similar and not just energy or vorticity.

[Cpv17]

Can't say I'm a huge fan of the ICON (even though I grew up in Germany) but it also has been decent in picking up on a change on the atmosphere.

12z was a sizable jump towards the wgom with an organized system. Now we wait to see if any other models hint at something similar and not just energy or vorticity.

Looks similar to the 0z CMC.

[Scott747]

Welp.... 12z GFS is showing much stronger ridging once in the gulf and a favorable atmosphere.

[Kingwood36]

Welp.... 12z GFS is showing much stronger ridging once in the gulf and a favorable atmosphere.

So does that mean what I think it means

[Cpv17]

Welp.... 12z GFS is showing much stronger ridging once in the gulf and a favorable atmosphere.

So that means...

Further west track. Stronger ridging would prevent a northward turn.

[Cpv17]

Wow @ the 12z GFS

[Kingwood36]

Wow @ the 12z GFS

Damn near Galveston to lake Charles...that's one stout *** ridge

[Scott747]

Well fortunately it's at the limit of a mid range forecast but it's certainly an ugly run.

[Stratton20]

Man what is up with the GFS, fts all over the place

[Cpv17]

Man what is up with the GFS, fts all over the place

Models are seeing stronger ridging now. This is why you can’t get too low or too high on a forecast regarding tc’s more than 3 days out. The atmosphere is constantly changing. Btw the latest 12z GFS looks like it has a landfall of a cat 3 or 4 around Port Aransas.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 we definitely need to see if this is a trend or if its another one of those one time runs of the GFS

[cperk]

Can't wait to see what the 12Z Euro run looks like.

[Cpv17]

Can't wait to see what the 12Z Euro run looks like.

I seriously doubt the Euro will show anything. That model has been atrocious regarding tc genesis since last year. There could be a tropical storm out there and it would initialize it as an open wave lol

[cperk]

Can't wait to see what the 12Z Euro run looks like.

I seriously doubt the Euro will show anything. That model has been atrocious regarding tc genesis since last year. There could be a tropical storm out there and it would initialize it as an open wave lol

I can't argue with you on that one.