August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[CRASHWX]

If the storm splits the Yucatán and Cuba then its LA if it clips the Yucatán than I think its upper Texas LA if it it cuts the Yucatán fairly deep than its south Texas to mid Texas…obviously the further south on the Yucatán the farther south it goes in Texas and Mexico…JMO opinion or maybe gut feeling

[djmike]

When should we have the first cone?

[Cpv17]

If the storm splits the Yucatán and Cuba then its LA if it clips the Yucatán than I think its upper Texas LA if it it cuts the Yucatán fairly deep than its south Texas to mid Texas…obviously the further south on the Yucatán the farther south it goes in Texas and Mexico…JMO opinion or maybe gut feeling

I agree completely.

[CRASHWX]

I figure they wont issue the cone till a center forms / closed off low pressure…depends on how quickly it gets its act together. Have not looked at early data on 12z…about too

[Cpv17]

When should we have the first cone?

When they classify it as a tropical depression or a tropical storm.

[tireman4]

Meanwhile, back at the Hacienda


000
FXUS64 KHGX 251132
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
632 AM CDT Wed Aug 25 2021

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expteced to develop
across the region later today. Strong gusty winds will be possible
with any strong storms through early evening. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected through the period with light southeast
winds. 05

[CRASHWX]

Yep…GFS clips the Yucatán and moves storm west to Lake Charles…or looks that way. I think the trend will continue west then correct to the east.

[sau27]

Landfall just a hair west of the 6Z GFS

[prospects8903]

I’m live in Port Arthur…

[Scott747]

Ridging erodes just enough as its heading for the upper Texas coast to turn it towards eastern Louisiana.

[tireman4]

TPOD for Thursday.

[Kingwood36]

Ridging erodes just enough as its heading for the upper Texas coast to turn it towards eastern Louisiana.

If it doesn't erode then it's ours right?

[CRASHWX]

Waiting on that turn is like playing Russian roulette with a possible monster…just saying at this point one needs to take notice and start looking around and getting your thoughts and plan organized. I would not go into prep till a center forms and there is more runs like maybe Friday…JMO still think it continues to waffle right then left in general

[Stratton20]

Kingwood36 if that ridge doesnt erode we would be in serious trouble

[Pas_Bon]

Ridging erodes just enough as its heading for the upper Texas coast to turn it towards eastern Louisiana.

If it doesn't erode then it's ours right?

yes

[jasons2k]

That and it bumps into the western ridge.

This forecast is not straightforward. Still lots of unresolved variables on the table.

[djmike]

Hmmm...just like Laura last year. Made the turn right before landfall and spared Beaumont. Unfortunately LC got the brunt. Do not feel like nail biting again this year in Beaumont.

[Scott747]

Ridging erodes just enough as its heading for the upper Texas coast to turn it towards eastern Louisiana.

If it doesn't erode then it's ours right?

Not necessarily. Trough could still produce enough of a weakness to make a hard turn to the n towards the border.

The 12z run just keeps the ridge a little stronger for about 6-12 hrs allowing a little further track to the w. It's crazy to get so specific without a center but for this current run that how close it could be for someone along the upper texas coast and eastern la.

[Scott747]

One thing I find interesting is the initial coordinates for recon on flights 3 & 4.

[Stratton20]

12z CMC has shifted a little west , now shows landfall along sabine pass