Yep, these are some of the little clues us old timers look for
August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall
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So, basically the bottom line is when want the ridge to erode or be weaker so it goes to our neighbors in LA..if it's stronger it's coming home to texas..correct?
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Cmc right on Tx/LA
I tried this last ear but couldn't get any bites.....who wants to buy my house in Orange, Tx? Looking for a quick sale...we could close by the weekend....
Ukie = still coastal bend region
12z HWRF is much further w early in the run compared to the 0z (discount the 6z run.)
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This is just crazy lol, never seen this much model disagreement before
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We don't even have a named system yet. Haha. This is fairly par for the course.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 25, 2021 12:35 pm This is just crazy lol, never seen this much model disagreement before
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Then you must not have followed tropical systems very much. This is pretty common.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 25, 2021 12:35 pm This is just crazy lol, never seen this much model disagreement before
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There really isn't too much disagreement actually with the 3 models showing the border give or take and just the UK showing mid Tx. Not bad till the 12 Euro comes out and throws up a different solution like yesterday!
- tireman4
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Until we get a COC ( and even that might not synthesize the model consensus), this will be all over the place. Stay tuned.weatherguy425 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 25, 2021 12:37 pmWe don't even have a named system yet. Haha. This is fairly par for the course.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 25, 2021 12:35 pm This is just crazy lol, never seen this much model disagreement before
- srainhoutx
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Hurricane Ike models just about 48 hours prior to landfall suggested a Corpus Christi/N Parde Island landfall and evacuations started down there to only have those models shift to Galveston forcing all the State and Federal assets to quickly relocate to Galveston/Bolivar Peninsula. I believe that there was crow eating by some Pro Mets and government officials...Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 25, 2021 12:35 pm This is just crazy lol, never seen this much model disagreement before
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
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srainhoutx jeez thats awful, ofc I was just a kid at the time, but I remember waking up after IKE passed , finding a neighbors trampoline ib my backyard with the entire back fence fallen down
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If anything forms historically speaking, Galveston County has the highest odds of getting hit. They have the highest number of major hurricane direct hits in the state going back to 1900. However, one cannot solely rely upon historical impacts to determine where this system will end up.
Edit: actually, it is Brazoria County with the highest number, but Galveston County is #2.
Edit: actually, it is Brazoria County with the highest number, but Galveston County is #2.
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Yes, I can second that emotion. It was wild on this forum about it. Crazysrainhoutx wrote: ↑Wed Aug 25, 2021 12:43 pmHurricane Ike models just about 48 hours prior to landfall suggested a Corpus Christi/N Parde Island landfall and evacuations started down there to only have those models shift to Galveston forcing all the State and Federal assets to quickly relocate to Galveston/Bolivar Peninsula. I believe that there was crow eating by some Pro Mets and government officials...Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 25, 2021 12:35 pm This is just crazy lol, never seen this much model disagreement before
Just my 2 cents but I believe we live in a totally different world than what once was. You can throw out all the records, statistics, history.....it's a new ball game now...the "hot spots" have changed....captainbarbossa19 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 25, 2021 12:50 pm If anything forms historically speaking, Galveston County has the highest odds of getting hit. They have the highest number of major hurricane direct hits in the state going back to 1900. However, one cannot solely rely upon historical impacts to determine where this system will end up.
Edit: actually, it is Brazoria County with the highest number, but Galveston County is #2.