August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[tireman4]

From our NWS...remember these words as the models flip flop like windshield wipers..


Continue to closely monitor the official National Hurricane Center forecasts
as they take into account the differing model solutions and their associated
strengths, weaknesses and weaknesses. Now is the time to review your
hurricane preparedness plans/kits to make sure they are up to date.

[snowman65]

That GFS jump is a bit too much for me to believe right now.....ehhh....gimme something CMC, EURO.....whatcha got???

[Stratton20]

Considering the GFS has gone from a mexico landfall to a near New Orleans landfall in a span of 3 days, im very skeptical of this model right now

[weatherguy425]

Considering the GFS has gone from a mexico landfall to a near New Orleans landfall in a span of 3 days, im very skeptical of this model right now

But it’s been a consistent trend - east - among all guidance and there are physical reasons (weaker ridge). The trend may not continue, but not worth dismissing either in my opinion.

[Stormlover2020]

All about where the center forms

[Stratton20]

weatherguy425 oh im not dismissing it, but im still being extra cautious and staying prepared just in case this system decides to track more towards the yucatan than what the GFS is showing

[Andrew]

GEFS with a pretty big shift east too.

[snowman65]

People need to be on their toes for this one. Anything can happen and there won't be alot of time to prep and make a decision on which way to go if they decide to leave.

[Stratton20]

I just have a weird feeling this storm is not going to go as far east as these latest model runs show, Galveston Bay to as far east as vermillion bay is my best guess

[Cpv17]

GFS landfall New Orleans what next Florida.

Lol wouldn’t surprise me one bit.

[Kingwood36]

Well wxman57 was right! Louisiana it is! We can all breath a deep breath of relief now

[mcheer23]

Well wxman57 was right! Louisiana it is! We can all breath a deep breath of relief now

Not really.

[weatherguy425]

Well wxman57 was right! Louisiana it is! We can all breath a deep breath of relief now

Not really.

Wxman has been very open about the uncertainty and being patient with the process. He hasn’t bet the farm on anything yet.

[Kingwood36]

Well wxman57 was right! Louisiana it is! We can all breath a deep breath of relief now

Not really.

Wxman has been very open about the uncertainty and being patient with the process. He hasn’t bet the farm on anything yet.

I just like giving him a hard time

[Scott747]

If the NHC is giving the 18z GFS run any credibility your're about to see the biggest shift in the upcoming TWO that's ever been seen.

[snowman65]

If the NHC is giving the 18z GFS run any credibility your're about to see the biggest shift in the upcoming TWO that's ever been seen.

And I'll take it like a 7yr old taking candy on Halloween...

[tireman4]

Interesting days ahead, as we model watch...

[Pas_Bon]

GFS landfall New Orleans what next Florida.

Lol wouldn’t surprise me one bit.

Massachusetts

[TexasBreeze]

Once the eastward shifts begin they are hard to stop. Happens every time around here!
They sure don't need it there and they spent all that time and money preparing that lch radome too...

[captainbarbossa19]

GFS landfall New Orleans what next Florida.

Lol wouldn’t surprise me one bit.

Massachusetts

Or even better--it drops development completely.