August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[tireman4]

Flip flop..flip flop...

[Ptarmigan]

Flip flop..flip flop...

So very true.

[tireman4]

Well, gang, I am going to bed. Who knows what I will wake up to tomorrow, but rest assured, there will be a debate on it. Remember, the Hurricane Hunters will go out there tomorrow, so the models will have new and fresh information ingested into the models. As I read myself to sleep about the Federal Writers' Project ( A WPA agency during the Great Depression, my research), I will you all a good night.

[Scott747]

Beginning to get good curvature. Still looks like the vorticity is stretched but not near as much as earlier with an area around 14.5 or further up s of Jamaica where it could consolidate as it moves wnw. Hard to zero in at night...

[Andrew]

00Z GFS even faster and further east this run so far.

[Andrew]

Beginning to get good curvature. Still looks like the vorticity is stretched but not near as much as earlier with an area around 14.5 or further up s of Jamaica where it could consolidate as it moves wnw. Hard to zero in at night...

Before sunset it did look loosely organized on visible satellite and some convection was firing overhead. We will see if further consolidation can occur overnight.

[Andrew]

00Z GFS shows stronger ridging so a little further west. Models are zoning in on the Vermillion Bay region

[Scott747]

Beginning to get good curvature. Still looks like the vorticity is stretched but not near as much as earlier with an area around 14.5 or further up s of Jamaica where it could consolidate as it moves wnw. Hard to zero in at night...

Before sunset it did look loosely organized on visible satellite and some convection was firing overhead. We will see if further consolidation can occur overnight.

At least we can settle a good bit of this tomorrow once recon gets in there.

0z GFS is trending a little further w.

[Andrew]

00Z GEFS members are a good bit north compared to the 18Z run with most of them crossing Cuba.

[Rip76]

00Z GEFS members are a good bit north compared to the 18Z run with most of them crossing Cuba.

Heck that may be a Florida panhandle problem.

[Stratton20]

Yep GFS shifted a little back to the west, something tocwatch

[davidiowx]

I don’t know what to think lol.. can’t wait for recon to get in there hopefully tomorrow

[Andrew]

CMC with a jump east.

[Andrew]

GEFS has good consolidation and agreement on a Vermillion Bay landfall now.

[Stratton20]

All i can say is i hope we get some rain this week, this current hot weather pattern can take a hike, this heat make me feel so tired, mother nature is a bi*ch sometimes lol

[Scott747]

Ukie into Marsh Island/Vermillion Bay

[Andrew]

All i can say is i hope we get some rain this week, this current hot weather pattern can take a hike, this heat make me feel so tired, mother nature is a bi*ch sometimes lol

Scattered rain chances are expected over the next couple of days. Overall, this summer has been pretty wet and I would much rather have a "dry spell" versus a hurricane hitting us.

[Andrew]

Ukie into Marsh Island/Vermillion Bay

It was the last reliable model showing a westerly landfall. Amazing how quickly the models adjusted from an elongated low developing along the coast of Central America to one developing southwest of Jamaica and tracking north/northwest. We went from a Mexico landfall to a Lousiana landfall over a matter of 24-36 hours

[Andrew]

The GFS continues to show another tropical system we will need to monitor for the first week of September

[Stratton20]

Andrew I lived in a desert for 2 years, dry spells definitely are not welcomed here lol