August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[Andrew]

GFS with another sizeable jump east with a landfall now near New Orleans.

[weatherguy425]

GFS with another sizeable jump east with a landfall now near New Orleans.

HWRF also shifts east from previous run through the northwestern Caribbean. At hour 39, it's approaching the western tip of Cuba.

[Scott747]

HWRF looks a little more realistic initially based on current trends. Perhaps a little too far s on initialization but settles in quickly.

[don]

Looks like a Louisiana storm to me. Unfortunately though models are already showing another storm developing in the same region by the middle of next week. And possibly heading into the western gulf.Still plenty of time to watch though.

[Scott747]

HWRF is still heading much further w than the GFS and will need to hook n like the 0z run to avoid a border track.

Eventually turns NNW into the w end of Vermillion Bay on Monday morning.

[Scott747]

I should just wait for recon since ASCAT was a big whiff last night but it just doesn't seem to be consolidating as quickly. Still a bit of a battle between the upper end of the axis and somewhere in the middle.

[Samantha550]

Looks like a Louisiana storm to me. Unfortunately though models are already showing another storm developing in the same region by the middle of next week. And possibly heading into the western gulf.Still plenty of time to watch though.

I remember the one, two punch from Gustav and Ike. Left Beaumont for Gustav which came into Louisiana. Hit major traffic coming back outside of Cleveland. I think that tapped out and fatigued a lot of people who ended up staying put for Ike.

Let's hope for better luck this year.

[weatherguy425]

I should just wait for recon since ASCAT was a big whiff last night but it just doesn't seem to be consolidating as quickly. Still a bit of a battle between the upper end of the axis and somewhere in the middle.

Still pretty elongated and broad atm.

[srainhoutx]

I don't see any indication of anything at the surface at this time. The mid levels are still attempting to organize, but I believe the upper low to the N is still inhibiting 99L from organizing.

[Scott747]

Some change in the TWO disco and change in the graphic that recognizes the eastward shift in the models.

The system is expected to enter into the Gulf of Mexico Friday night
and continue moving northwestward toward the central or northwestern
U.S. Gulf coast, potentially bringing dangerous impacts from storm
surge, wind, and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Texas,
Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle by Sunday
and Monday. However, uncertainty in the system's exact track and
intensity remains large since the low is just beginning to form.
Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress of this
system and ensure they have their hurricane plans in place.

[Cromagnum]

What time do the HHs fly today and which model run do we think will be the first one to use that data for a clearer starting picture?

[vci_guy2003]

Are we looking at Labor Day for the next storm?

[weatherguy425]

I don't see any indication of anything at the surface at this time. The mid levels are still attempting to organize, but I believe the upper low to the N is still inhibiting 99L from organizing.

Yep! ULL to 99L's northwest is imposing quite a bit of southwesterly shear at the moment.

[srainhoutx]

What time do the HHs fly today and which model run do we think will be the first one to use that data for a clearer starting picture?

They are scheduled to depart Biloxi mid day for an afternoon arrival for sampling. We likely won't see that data in the global models until the 00Z Suite of guidance. Tomorrow morning will be a big data day as the G-IV is scheduled to fly early tomorrow morning.

[Cpv17]

Are we looking at Labor Day for the next storm?

Possibly. +/- a day or two. There’s also a good possibility at the moment that nothing will even develop.

[mcheer23]

Are we looking at Labor Day for the next storm?

Possibly. +/- a day or two. There’s also a good possibility at the moment that nothing will even develop.

Around then. the CPC has already highlighted the Caribbean for a moderate chance of development.

[Cromagnum]

So if 99L takes longer to establish and crosses the Yucatan still weak, does that scenario shift things back west? Just seeing what to watch for. I'm confident that it strengthen inside the gulf no matter what though.

[weatherguy425]

Data continues to align with a Louisiana landfall. Today, early tomorrow is a time period to look for subtle shifts. But, overall, confidence is increasing in the forecast.



12Z Tropical Models -

[Kingwood36]

I think this could be our last threat for the yr.. once these week cool front start heading towards us in September it's more then likely going to sweep anything east if here like it normally does

[tireman4]

Data continues to align with a Louisiana landfall. Today, early tomorrow is a time period to look for subtle shifts. But, overall, confidence is increasing in the forecast.



12Z Tropical Models -

I wonder how massive (size) this storm will be. I suppose that is an ongoing question as the days wears on.