August 2021: Major Hurricane Ida/SE Louisiana Landfall

[TexasBreeze]

I am kinda surprised on how far west the hurricane/ surge watch goes. It is the whole coast of LA. Covering the ensembles spread.

[Cpv17]

Grand Isle.
Heard it from me first

That’s not a bad bet at all.

[Andrew]

Just as an FYI the 00Z ICON has stronger ridging over the SE United States with a west shift for landfall. Something to keep track of to see if other models pick up on it too.

[prospects8903]

Lates icon just got my attention…it’s a change of plans for me here in Port Arthur…late night model watching

[tireman4]

00Z Icon

[prospects8903]

Really curious if the GFS and Euro follow suit and track further westward

[tireman4]

We did discuss the 00Z models. These would be the first from the information given from the Hurricane Hunters. Interesting days ahead for all.

[Scott747]

While the low level recon data helps some it won't be till the G-IV flight early in the morning that is usually a difference maker. As long as that flight isn't delayed and on schedule, it will be ingested into the 12z model runs.

[Andrew]

00Z GFS coming in further west through 42 hours which is to be expected. It has been the easterly outlier for the most part over the last couple of days. If the general movement holds up it should make landfall just east of Vermillion Bay.

Edit: looks like landfall near Morgan City and pretty much right where the NHC has landfall

[Texaspirate11]

Quite a lightening show in Galveston

[Rip76]

Quite a lightening show in Galveston

Amazing lightning show out here tonight.

[Scott747]

0z Euro wasn't a large shift w but wasn't exactly small either. Not meaningful enough for any concern as most of the globals are still right around Vermillion Bay, including both hurricane models.

[Andrew]

0z Euro wasn't a large shift w but wasn't exactly small either. Not meaningful enough for any concern as most of the globals are still right around Vermillion Bay, including both hurricane models.

A pretty noticeable slowdown as it approaches the coast. Something to monitor for sure.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 270900
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
400 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

.SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Night]...

Scattered thunderstorms continue to move across parts of the region
early this morning from the coastal waters. An inverted trough,
currently located offshore just east of Galveston Island will
continue to move inland this morning. The combination of this upper-
level forcing, deep layer moisture (PWATS 2.1-2.4 inches) and deep
low-level convergence will keep an active weather pattern today.
Most of this activity will be confined along and south of I-10
through mid-late morning. However, more isolated to scattered
activity will be possible this afternoon across the entire region
with peak daytime heating. Rainfall rates of 1-2 inches/hr are
possible with any strong/slow storms. Rainfall totals from 1 to 3
inches are expected through this evening; isolated higher amounts
possible. WPC Day 1 outlook has placed a marginal risk of excessive
rainfall for parts of our coastal counties today. The main hazards
are locally heavy rain, frequent lightning and gusty winds up to 30
mph.

Rain and storm chances continue on Saturday as a subtle shortwave
embedded within the flow aloft moves through. Isolated showers and
storms are expected over the coastal waters/counties late
tonight/early Saturday morning, then moving/developing inland
throughout the day.

With mostly cloudy skies and precipitation chances, today`s highs
will only reach the low to mid 90s. Warmest readings are expected
across our northern counties due to less cloud coverage. Saturday`s
highs will also be a tad "cooler" with highs from the upper 80s to
low 90s.

05

.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Friday]...

Much more confidence in the long term forecast compared to this time
yesterday. On Sunday, Ida will be heading towards a landfall along
the Lousiana coastline as a strong hurricane bringing life
threatening storm surge, winds, and rainfall to that area when it
makes landfall Sunday night. Expecting minimal impacts to SE Texas
on Sunday. We will get strong rip currents along our beaches and
increased wave heights on Sunday, so mariners and beach goers should
follow safe beach and boating practices. We may get some scattered
showers and thunderstorms on Sunday, but increasing subsidence on
the west side of the hurricane will help to limit precipitation.
Ida will slowly move across Louisiana/Mississippi through Monday.
This will keep some lingering showers and thunderstorms in our
marine waters potentially through Tuesday morning, but expecting
limited precipitation over our land. High pressure keeps on
building through midweek as Ida gets pulled northeastwards
limiting precipitation chances through the end of the long term.
There will be a chance of showers each afternoon due to
thunderstorms driven by daytime heating. Speaking of daytime
heating, the building high pressure will help bring the heat back
to SE Texas with high temperatures each day in the mid to upper
90s through the week.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...

Easterly flow of 5 to 10kts, occansionally 15kts, will continue
through Saturday night. There is a chance of scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the waters through Saturday bringing locally
higher, variable winds and higher seas. By Sunday, marine conditions
begin to deteriorate as Ida (expected to be a strong hurricane at
this time) moves closer to the Lousiana coastline, making landfall
late Sunday. Winds over our coastal waters shift to a
northeasterly direction Sunday morning, northerly Sunday afternoon
into Sunday night, then westerly on Monday. Wind speeds in our
waters are expected to peak late Sunday and the overnight period
into Monday morning with wind speeds of 15 to 20 knots with gusts
up to 25kts. Wave heights will also be building to 6 to 9 feet at
this time with occasionally higher seas. Small craft advisories
will likely be needed Sunday into Monday. Mariners should continue
to monitor the forecast as there is still some uncertainty in the
exact track of Ida. If it tracks further east, expected lower
winds and seas. If it tracks further west, expect slightly higher
seas and winds. But at this time, we are not anticipating tropical
storm or hurricane conditions in our waters. Expecting improving
conditions Tuesday and into the later part of the week as Ida gets
pulled inland across Mississippi and into the Mid-Atlantic and
high pressure builds over SE Texas.

Fowler

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 1203 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021/...

.AVIATION [06Z TAF Issuance]...

Showers/thunderstorms associated with an approaching inverted trof
have been expanding in coverage across our coastal waters tonight.
Will maintain the mention of VCTS for GLS and LBX through the over
night hours...with (mostly) SHRA coverage spreading inland to may-
be as far north as IAH by sunrise. Will roll the mentions of VCSH/
VCTS into the afternoon for these sites and rest of our terminals
given daytime heating and increased low-level moisture. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 92 75 91 75 93 / 50 20 50 10 30
Houston (IAH) 91 76 90 76 94 / 60 20 70 20 60
Galveston (GLS) 88 79 90 80 91 / 70 60 70 40 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

[oleander]

As a fellow Doctor, I can assure you that he's tired too. We all are tired — of these perfectly good storms being wasted on those boonies in Louisiana.

Am I missing something?

Stratton has multiple (troll) personalities. Some are more tropikal than others.

Is AZ back? I've been wondering.....

[Cromagnum]

Quite a few rounds of thunderstorms came through late last night for me. Rumbled pretty good and now a lot more to the south this morning.

[Cromagnum]

That's about as bad as it can get for New Orleans.

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 271207
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
707 AM CDT Fri Aug 27 2021

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

A mix of VFR to LIFR conditions due to stratus and scattered
showers and thunderstorms are prevailing this morning at all
sites. Low clouds/stratus will gradually thin through the morning
hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms should remain south of
I-10 through mid-late morning, but additional thunderstorms will
be possible this afternoon at all sites. Another round of showers
and storms will be possible late tonight, mainly over the coastal
counties. Light variable winds are expected this morning, becoming
more east-southeasterly around 5-10 knots this afternoon. 05



&&

[jasons2k]

Morning update from Jeff:

Hurricane Watches are in effect for the US Gulf coast from Cameron, LA to the MS/AL border

Storm surge watch is in effect from Sabine Pass TX to the AL/FL line.

A significant hurricane event is likely over SE LA into coastal MS late this weekend.

Discussion:
Surface observations from the Cayman Islands indicate that Ida is starting to intensify this morning with a surface pressure recorded at Grand Cayman of 1003mb. USAF mission will be in Ida shortly to asses the structural and intensity changes overnight. Radar data shows increased banding to the north and east of the center this morning and a better consolidation of deep convection near and over the center. Ida continues to move NW and will approach and cross west-central Cuba later today.

Track:
Ida is continuing to move toward the NW around 13-14mph along the SW edge of a deep layer ridge of high pressure over the SW ATL just off the US SE coast. The forecast track reasoning is fairly straight forward as Ida will round the western side of this ridge over the next 48 hours and approach the US Gulf coast late this weekend. Guidance track aides remain fairly tightly clustered on a landfall along the SC or SE LA coast by midday Sunday into Sunday night. Confidence is now high that Ida will landfall along this portion of the Gulf coast this weekend.

Intensity:
Ida is undergoing a bit of SW shear this morning due to a trough of low pressure to the W and NW of the system, but conditions will continue to improve and once Ida closely off an inner core a rapid rate of intensification is expected over the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Intensity guidance continues to bring a significant major hurricane to the US Gulf coast and NHC now brings Ida to 115mph at landfall Sunday afternoon. The NHC intensity forecast is on the lower end of the intensity spectrum and Ida could be stronger than currently forecast at landfall.

The wind field of Ida is likely to expand over the Gulf of Mexico this weekend and this will drive a significant, far reaching, and life threatening storm surge across much of SE LA and coastal MS. This also indicates that tropical storm force winds will likely begin to arrive along the coast by Sunday morning…so there is about 48 hours of preparation time and that window is going to close quickly.

Impacts:
Significant hurricane impacts are likely over SC and SE LA into coastal MS late this weekend into Monday. Storm surge forecasts of 7-11 feet above the ground is likely over the vulnerable SE LA and coastal MS outside of the hurricane protection systems. Widespread hurricane force winds are likely across much of SE LA including metro New Orleans and into coastal MS.

Local Impacts:
Seas will build into the 8-12 foot range by Sunday into Monday along the upper TX coast and this will result in wave run-up along the Gulf facing beaches. Minor coastal flooding will be possible at times of high tides Sunday into Monday with total water levels in the 3.0-3.5 foot range possible.

[srainhoutx]

Let's drop this nonsense now. Stick to weather discussions only.