September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

[Stratton20]

CPV17 that would be bad, but I bet its the outlier in terma of rainfall accumulation

[Cpv17]

It isn’t much at all and it might not even be worth mentioning but the 12z EPS had a very slight uptick in support.

[Stratton20]

18z GFS has pretty much dropped development of our “phantom” storm next week

[weatherguy425]

18z GFS has pretty much dropped development of our “phantom” storm next week

A lot of land interaction - basically buried into Central America. But, there is still quite a bit of vorticity in the southern BOC.

[Stratton20]

Weatherguy425 guess the 18z GEFS ensemble might be a little but of a different story compared to the operational run

[Cpv17]

It appears to me like ensemble support is slowly growing for a tc somewhere in the BOC or western Gulf in about 5-8 days from now. We’ll know a lot more by this coming weekend for sure.

[Scott747]

0z ICON with its strongest run yet and a similar steering pattern as what the other globals have been showing.

[Scott747]

The 0z GFS continues the trend that the model has shown throughout the day with a further southern solution and a more organized system on the EPAC side. However the flow is still dominant towards the BoC and why it keeps pulling the energy that way and eventually towards Tampico ish without fully organizing a system.

[Cpv17]

The 0z GFS continues the trend that the model has shown throughout the day with a further southern solution and a more organized system on the EPAC side. However the flow is still dominant towards the BoC and why it keeps pulling the energy that way and eventually towards Tampico ish without fully organizing a system.

It basically parallels the coast all the way from Veracruz towards Matagorda Bay. That’s nuts.

[Scott747]

The 0z GFS continues the trend that the model has shown throughout the day with a further southern solution and a more organized system on the EPAC side. However the flow is still dominant towards the BoC and why it keeps pulling the energy that way and eventually towards Tampico ish without fully organizing a system.

It basically parallels the coast all the way from Veracruz towards Matagorda Bay. That’s nuts.

Similar to the 0z run last night but not near as crazy. The steering hasn't changed much in the models. It's the EPAC and land interaction that's changing the eventual organization, or lack thereof.

[djmike]

Wow its feels awesome outside. Cool front passed and temp is 67 in Beaumont. Ill take it!

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 070845
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
345 AM CDT Tue Sep 7 2021

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday Night]...
With the weak surface boundary at/near the coast and expected to
eventually drift into the nearshore waters (and further wash out),
rain chances should remain rather low today...mainly over our far
SW counties (Jackson/Matagorda). The drier air mass that has been
lingering just to our north has finally made it into the northern
third (or so) of the CWA...and could creep to/very close the I-10
corridor this afternoon and to the coast by tonight. Should these
trends verify, we could be in for some overnight low temperatures
at/around 70 for the southern CWA as well as mid/upper 60s across
northern portions of the CWA.

This drier air is progged to stick around SE TX through late tom-
orrow night or so. The return low-level SW winds could bring some
increase of moisture during the evening hours tomorrow...but this
could be a brief return. Another surge of drier is set to move in
from the NE overnight tomorrow/early Thurs morning. 41

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...
Dry airmass will remain in place thru Sat leading to msunny, hot
days and mclear, mild nights. Heading into Sunday, sfc ridge
should be well off to the east and mid level ridging will lose
its grip as an easterly wave & inverted mid level trof makes its
way to the western Gulf Coast. Expect a fairly abrupt modification
to a tropical airmass with the return of more pronounced onshore
winds and the return of 2"+ PW`s. Corresponding rain chances will
increase and persist into early next week (& probably longer)
with the region situated in a general weakness aloft between a
ridge to the west and one to the southeast. 47

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Dry/quiet weather on tap for SE TX today. The best chance of rain
should be over our far SW counties...well away from our terminals.
Mostly VFR conditions to prevail through this next TAF package as
only a few sites will see some very brief patchy fog this morning
and tomorrow morning. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds and low seas will persist for the next several days. A
more pronounced onshore flow will become established later this
weekend along with gradually building seas. Chances of showers and
thunderstorms will increase in the coastal waters beginning
Sunday. 47

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Drier airmass will begin filtering in from the north today. RH`s
will bottom out in the 25-40% territory each day across some
inland parts of the area into Sat...with the lowest likely
occurring Wed-Fri. That said, wind speeds will be well below red
flag warning criteria. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 69 98 72 97 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 95 71 97 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 91 79 92 79 92 / 10 10 10 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

[Andrew]

Models continue to show parts of SE Texas on the cusp of drier air for the next couple of days as the frontal boundary that brought rain to the region yesterday stalls/shears out. Nothing crazy, but a small indication that we are closer and closer to fall and cooler weather. As for the tropics, most models indicate ridging will continue to build in from the Atlantic and encompass most of the GOM. Interestingly enough, the GFS does have a pretty deep fetch of moisture feeding in from Central America/Pacific during the start of next week. Something to watch but nothing really concerning at this point. Luckily, for us in SE Texas, time is on our side as history has shown once we get through middle/late September our season USUALLY shuts down. That doesn't mean we can't get a "homebrew" type of storm but our chances do decrease dramatically once the "Westerlies" (as Ed used to remind us) begin.

[Cpv17]

The GFS has a ton of rain offshore and never really moves it in while the Euro doesn’t have nearly as much rain but what it does have, it moves it inland. I noticed that on the previous couple runs of the Euro it stalled the system out over us which gave us some huge widespread totals but on this last 0z run it moved the system out much quicker and dissipated.

[Scott747]

6z GFS tries to spin up a short-lived depression in a week se of Brownsville. Ensembles hint at it but most of the support is still on the EPAC side. We'll see if there's any kind of trend today. Have my doubts but there's enough 'there' from the other globals to at least keep any eye on it....

[Stratton20]

I really dont see any sort of development taking place next week, we might get a slug of moisture from the BOC but thats about it really IMO, now im not saying their is a 0% chance for development, but models really arent showing much of anything

[Cpv17]

I really dont see any sort of development taking place next week, we might get a slug of moisture from the BOC but thats about it really IMO, now im not saying their is a 0% chance for development, but models really arent showing much of anything

Yeah it’s cuz it crashes it into Mexico. If it stayed out over the water then we’d probably have something.

[Stratton20]

CPV17 yeah thats why I probably think that this wont develop, unless their is a dramatic change in the 12z models, I dont think development will be an issue

[DoctorMu]

Wow its feels awesome outside. Cool front passed and temp is 67 in Beaumont. Ill take it!

Dewpoint just sunk to 63°F here!

[Scott747]

12z GFS is coming in a little more aggressive. 999 offshore of Tampico.