September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

[Andrew]

If the system can quickly gain strength a track to the north is possible as upper-level steering currents are less zonal, but with so much land interaction it's going to remain difficult. Operational and ensemble support still remains marginal at best, but either way, if development occurs or not increased rain chances across South and Central Texas are likely next week. Also, with these types of events that don't initially develop sometimes, you do see a weak coastal low/trough try to develop which could further increase the heavy rain threat.

[Stratton20]

Ah i gotcha, well interesting days are surely ahead of us

[Stormlover2020]

Could be a flooding event next week

[Andrew]

Could be a flooding event next week

It's possible, but at this point in time, I think increased rain chances along the Texas Coast is the most likely scenario right now.

[Stormlover2020]

That’s the conservative talk.. Yeah we do but ridge to the west, shifts east and then another builds out west, Puts us in a weak steering pattern

[Cpv17]

There’s potential for a flood threat. Just don’t know how much potential yet. Still 5+ days out. Who knows, we might not even get anything.

[Scott747]

After backing off a little bit on the 0z the 6z GFS tries to briefly develop something deep in the BoC and then splits off a piece of energy towards the upper Texas coast, similar to the Euro.

[jasons2k]

It definitely feels fall-like in the morning now. Afternoon wasn’t bad either with no humidity. Great time of the year.

[Texaspirate11]

Today is the 121st anniversary of the Great Storm.

[Cpv17]

The 0z Euro shifted way east and has the heavy rains offshore now and more towards LA. GFS is still wet for us.

[Cromagnum]

It definitely feels fall-like in the morning now. Afternoon wasn’t bad either with no humidity. Great time of the year.

Feels great this morning. Only a matter of time before it feels like this or cooler all day. Can't wait.

[DoctorMu]

It definitely feels fall-like in the morning now. Afternoon wasn’t bad either with no humidity. Great time of the year.

Feels great this morning. Only a matter of time before it feels like this or cooler all day. Can't wait.

The Dewpoint snuck up a little over the last hour. But a great morning and evening last night. I can breathe again!

[Stormlover2020]

The 0z Euro shifted way east and has the heavy rains offshore now and more towards LA. GFS is still wet for us.

06 back west

[sambucol]

Will we be getting flooding rains from the system? And does it look like the system will develop into a storm?

[Stratton20]

Sambucol both of these options are fairly unlikely at this point

[Stormlover2020]

Sambucol both of these options are fairly unlikely at this point

Flooding could really happen if u look at the pattern..somebody is going to get hammered

[Scott747]

12z GFS tries to briefly spin up a depression e of Veracruz while again sending another bit of energy toward the mid/upper texas coast. Area by Veracruz crawls up the coast towards Tampico while overall energy is stretched out from Tampico thru the Texas coast.

[Stratton20]

12z GFS rainfall accumulation map

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 080849
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
349 AM CDT Wed Sep 8 2021

.SHORT TERM [Through Thursday night]...
After a dry/cool start to the day, temperatures are set to rebound
back into the 90s this afternoon. Not a lot of forecast issues are
expected as the weak surface high over the CWA continues to weaken
further. The light NE winds this morning will become more variable
by this afternoon...then SE by this evening/early tonight. A brief
window of weak return flow/moisture could be enough for the develop-
ment of patchy fog across the central/southern half of the area to-
night into early tomorrow/Thurs morning.

The next cold front is still progged to move into the northern CWA
late tonight, sweeping down off the coast by tomorrow afternoon. At
this time, not expecting any organized precipitation with FROPA as
moisture will be quite limited. But, even with this much drier air
mass moving into/settling in over the region tomorrow, we`ll still
see temperatures in the mid 90s during the afternoon. However, the
real changes should be felt tomorrow night as lower humidities are
coupled with lower min temps (mid 60s north to the around 70 along
the coast). 41

&&

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...
No significant changes were made to the extended portion of the
fcst. Dry, generally comfortable wx will continue into Sat. Atmos
will modify during the second half of the weekend and into mid
next week. Deep Gulf moisture will flow back into the the region
in association with an erly wave & inverted mid level trof
tracking wwd and to the coastline along the western Gulf. PW`s aoa
1" on Sat will climb into the 2.0-2.5" territory south of I-10 on
Sun...then areawide on Mon. Will probably see shra/tstm coverage
increase offshore near a zone of llvl speed convergence Sat
night...with precip eventually expanding inland during the daytime
hours on Sunday with some heating. Rinse-repeat each day into
midweek. 47

&&

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Even with high pressure weakening over the area, not a lot of fore-
cast issues expected through this afternoon. Some very brief patchy
fog and light NE winds this morning should transition to mostly SKC
and generally variable winds this afternoon. The return of light SE
winds tonight (and perhaps some low-level moisture) could be favor-
able for the development of another round of patchy fog for tonight
and early tomorrow morning...mainly for sites along/south of the I-
10 corridor. The next cold front is still set to move into the nor-
thern counties (CLL) after 06Z or so...not making it to the coastal
counties until mid/late morning. No precipitation expected with the
FROPA as mostly VFR conditions remain in place. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds and low seas will persist for the next several days as
high pressure dominates the region. With winds pretty light and a
greater than usual range of temperatures over land, the
land/seabreeze pattern should be more pronounced. A more
pronounced onshore flow will become established later this weekend
along with gradually building seas. Periods of showers and
thunderstorms, particularly at night and in the mornings, can be
expected beginning Saturday night with chances continuing into
next week. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 71 95 67 96 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 95 70 95 68 95 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 91 79 92 78 91 / 0 0 0 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

[DoctorMu]

The dry air has blasted through in CLL. Dewpoint dropped again 10°F. Back to the mid to upper 50s.

So done with Gulf moisture. Go away.

Bring on the Fall fronts!