September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

[Stratton20]

I am very concerned about the potential for this system to stall when it makes landfall , I have heard a few people mention this idea

[sambucol]

If we get a category 1 hurricane, is boarding up windows recommended?

[don]

From Matt Lanza of Space city weather

https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/14 ... 1269686285

[davidiowx]

If we get a category 1 hurricane, is boarding up windows recommended?

At your discretion. It certainly wouldn’t hurt by any means, but if your not right near the coast, or the eye wall, then I wouldn’t.

Don’t leave stuff laying around in the yard either though!

There’s a million unknowns but consensus is coming together, rather quickly. Everyone along the coast from Mexico up to the Golden Triangle needs to be watching the weather over the weekend and into early next week.

[Cpv17]

At the moment here on the western side of the viewing area I’m not too concerned about this one. Will definitely still keep track of it though and watch for any western shifts on the models.

[Cpv17]

If we get a category 1 hurricane, is boarding up windows recommended?

At your discretion. It certainly wouldn’t hurt by any means, but if your not right near the coast, or the eye wall, then I wouldn’t.

Don’t leave stuff laying around in the yard either though!

There’s a million unknowns but consensus is coming together, rather quickly. Everyone along the coast from Mexico up to the Golden Triangle needs to be watching the weather over the weekend and into early next week.

I honestly think even the western half of Louisiana needs to watch out for this one too. Not just us.

[Tx2005]

Space City Weather's last couple updates mention areas south and east of Houston are more at risk for potential flooding. Does that still hold true? Hopefully that means I'll be ok given I live in the NE part of the metro (Atascocita/Kingwood area).

[Stratton20]

Tx2005 yes to an extent its true, their still is significant uncertainty however about where the heaviest rain falls, just depends on where the rain bands set up

[Scott747]

0z GFS is a much weaker early on.

Becoming more organized ne of Tampico early Monday afternoon.

Beginning to deepen se of Brownsville early Tuesday and a little further offshore than 18z.

15 mb weaker than the 18z as it moves towards Matagorda Bay.

Skims Brazoria coastal and just offshore of San Luis Pass early Wednesday as a depression.

Moves across Galveston Bay as a weak TS later in the morning.

[TexasBreeze]

Beaumont takes the rains this run! Nothing much to the west and north of the system in our area.

[don]

Looks like the GFS came back to its senses lol.But it also shows that the GFS may not be trusted too much with this storm as its being inconsistent from run to run.The Euro may be leading the way with this storm.

[don]

Beaumont takes the rains this run! Nothing much to the west and north of the system in our area.

The funny thing is that most of the rain its showing in the golden triangle isn't even from the TC directly,and instead actually from an impulse ahead of the storm.It shows the storm dealing with dry air which greatly decreases the moisture available with it once it comes ashore.

[Stratton20]

Yeah im not trusting the GFS with this storm anymore , think the Euro will win the model battle here

[TexasBreeze]

There is a lot of dry air around here and Texas overall currently that would get entrained into a system that is stronger. The weaker it is, the better chances of rain further west and north I believe.

[davidiowx]

It is just me or does it feel amazing outside?

[don]

The low humidity is very pleasant outside.But unfortunately though it wont last for long(It never does this time of year LOL) as moisture increases starting tomorrow. The 0Z GEFS look more in agreement with the ICON and EURO, showing a track further west than the operational run.

[Cpv17]

There is a lot of dry air around here and Texas overall currently that would get entrained into a system that is stronger. The weaker it is, the better chances of rain further west and north I believe.

Let’s hope it remains weak and further west so your southwestern buddy over here in El Campo can get some too lol

[Cpv17]

It is just me or does it feel amazing outside?

Yes! Just got home from a high school football game and the weather was top notch!

[Texaspirate11]

I think this will encounter some dry air the closer it gets to Galveston.

[Cpv17]

So far through 72 hours the 0z Euro is further west than the 12z. Looks like it has a depression making landfall in northern Mexico then moving into STX.