September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas

[weatherguy425]

This is the usual GFS right bias Euro left bias. Split the difference down the middle and there you go.

If only it was that easy

[Cpv17]

This is the usual GFS right bias Euro left bias. Split the difference down the middle and there you go.

If only it was that easy

Lol true!

[Stratton20]

Yeah no the GFS is performing poorly with this system and has a strong bias here and I believe its 12z solution is one to consider tossing in the trash as I see this storm going inland as a weaker system , I do not think it is very reliable at the moment, im siding with the Euro solution here as its been more consistent

[don]

GFS has it scraping the coast and then moving inland around the Sabine.

[weatherguy425]

Yeah no the GFS is performing poorly with this system and has a strong bias here and I believe its 12z solution is one to consider tossing in the trash as I see this storm going inland as a weaker system , I do not think it is very reliable at the moment, im siding with the Euro solution here as its been more consistent

While the solution may not be correct, there isn’t really much evidence to suggest it is “out to lunch” or has a strong eastward bias, per say.

[TexasBreeze]

It isn't trash it could very well happen if it forms in just the right spot far enough offshore.

[Stratton20]

weatherguy425 no i mean strong as in strength, the GFS is by far the most “aggressive “ in terms of this systems strength, most model guidance is keeping this weaker and takes it into Texas and not riding it up the coast, for now this remains the more likely solution, the gfs solution is an outlier, im not buying into this unless the Euro changes

[don]

Big uptake in support on the 12Z GEFS.Most are west of the operational run for now.

[weatherguy425]

weatherguy425 no i mean strong as in strength, the GFS is by far the most “aggressive “ in terms of this systems strength, most model guidance is keeping this weaker and takes it into Texas and not riding it up the coast, for now this remains the more likely solution, the gfs solution is an outlier, im not buying into this unless the Euro changes

I’m just saying at the moment there is nothing to suggest the GFS is performing “poorly” with the system. It is stronger, but the center remains just a bit further offshore. NAVGEM (though not the best model) also has this solution. Let’s not forget which model has been the most excited about development over the past week (GFS). There is also some historical precedent for a coast-rider, looking at the setup. Some ensemble members from other models also suggest it is *possible.

I say all this just to drive home the point, that it it is still an option that should be considered seriously, among others.

[Andrew]

weatherguy425 no i mean strong as in strength, the GFS is by far the most “aggressive “ in terms of this systems strength, most model guidance is keeping this weaker and takes it into Texas and not riding it up the coast, for now this remains the more likely solution, the gfs solution is an outlier, im not buying into this unless the Euro changes

While conditions across the Western Gulf aren't expected to be perfect, you don't need perfect conditions to get a TS or weak cat 1. The main issue for this system has always been land interaction. The GFS keeps mid-level vort further east off the coast and upper-level steering would support a track to the north and possibly northeast.

[Stratton20]

Andrew well I guess we we have to see where the low consolidates I guess, then we should have a better handle on a track

[Stratton20]

weatherguy425 oh im not saying the GFS scenario cant be right , but most model guidance takes this further inland right now, thats what im kinda leaning more towards, but again just depends on where the low forms

[Andrew]

weatherguy425 oh im not saying the GFS scenario cant be right , but most model guidance takes this further inland right now, thats what im kinda leaning more towards, but again just depends on where the low forms

GFS is an outlier currently, but it was also an outlier early on for Ida and some of the other storms this year.

[Stratton20]

Andrew yes it is, will see what the 12z Euro shows, gotta love the good old battle between the Euro and The GFS, one farther east and the other west , would be nice to get some agreement between the two models considering this event is only a few days away

[Pas_Bon]

Space City Weather has a great synopsis

https://spacecityweather.com/

Sorry. Thought it had linked with my post. Not sure why it did not. Thanks

[weatherguy425]

Space City Weather has a great synopsis

https://spacecityweather.com/tropical- ... next-week/

[tireman4]

Back at the Ranch..


000
FXUS64 KHGX 111735
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1235 PM CDT Sat Sep 11 2021

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR conditions will persist through the duration of the TAF period
with east to east-southeast winds increasing to around 10 knots
this afternoon and becoming lighter and variable overnight at the
inland terminals. Skies remain mostly clear with few to scattered
cumulus at around 5000ft expected to continue to develop during
the day. A pattern shift begins tomorrow as a plume of deeper
moisture pushes onshore, bringing an increased chance of showers
and storms by tomorrow afternoon.

Cady

&&

[weatherguy425]

For the record, NHC experimental model HAFS-B (06Z), has a more concentrated circulation that previous runs; making initial landfall near Port O’Connor, then riding the coast up to San Luis Pass, then more northward over the general Houston Metro.

[Scott747]

For the record, NHC experimental model HAFS-B (06Z), has a more concentrated circulation that previous runs; making initial landfall near Port O’Connor, then riding the coast up to San Luis Pass, then more northward over the general Houston Metro.

I think we might be the only two that even pays attention to that one. lol.

There is a ton of other models and links that you kinda get lost in from that link I sent you awhile back.

[DoctorMu]

Yeah no the GFS is performing poorly with this system and has a strong bias here and I believe its 12z solution is one to consider tossing in the trash as I see this storm going inland as a weaker system , I do not think it is very reliable at the moment, im siding with the Euro solution here as its been more consistent

While the solution may not be correct, there isn’t really much evidence to suggest it is “out to lunch” or has a strong eastward bias, per say.

Yeah - How can a model be performing poorly when the storm is not even organized yet?