September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
Back east with the 10AM
Hurricane watch extended further east to San Luis
Pass,. And as expected the center looks to be reforming to the north.
Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021
Doppler radar data from Brownsville and Corpus Christi, Texas, along
with reconnaissance aircraft flight-level wind data, indicate that
Nicholas' inner-core structure has undergone some radical changes
since the previous advisory. The earlier near-eyewall pattern
dissipated a few hours ago, and has been replaced with what appears
to be an ongoing reformation of a new center abut 90 nmi
north-northeast of the old center. The aircraft recently found a
pressure of 1000 to 1002 mb with the dissipating original center,
while Doppler radar velocity data show a pronounced mid- to
upper-level circulation forming farther north as previously
mentioned. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is going
to be concentrating its reconnoiter mission in Nicholas'
northeastern quadrant to see if reformation of the low-level center
is occurring beneath the mid-level circulation noted in radar data.
The initial wind speed remains 50 kt based on recent aircraft 850-mb
flight-level winds of 59 kt, which equates to about 47 kt equivalent
surface winds.
The initial motion is an uncertain 005/10 kt due to the erosion and
ongoing reformation of the center. Despite the recent inner-core
erosion, the latest NHC model guidance remains in fairly good
agreement on Nicholas moving northward through a weakness in the
subtropical ridge. The GFS model has been performing exceptionally
well with predicting the recent erosion and more northward
reformation of the Nicholas' center. The new NHC track forecast is
similar to but slightly east or right of the previous advisory
track, and lies along the eastern edge of the track consensus model
envelope, which is to the left of the GFS track prediction.
Although the inner-core convective pattern has been disrupted,
recent trends in the radar data suggest that a new center should
reform farther northeast into the convective cloud shield. The
latest GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS shear analyses indicate that
westerly shear of near 20 kt is allegedly affecting Nicholas.
However, water vapor satellite imagery suggests that the upper-level
shear vector is actually from a south-southwesterly direction, which
is more along than across the cyclone's forward motion, thus
reducing the magnitude and negative effects of the vertical wind
shear. Therefore, strengthening is still expected until landfall
as Nicholas continues to move over slightly warmer Gulf waters. It
is possible that Nicholas could become a hurricane just before
landfall, and that's the reason for the northeastward extension of
the hurricane watch area. Nicholas should rapidly weaken after
landfall due to increased frictional effects, strong southwesterly
shear, and entrainment of mid-level dry air, resulting in
degeneration into a tropical depression by late Tuesday and a
remnant low on Wednesday. Otherwise, no significant changes were
made to the previous advisory intensity forecast.
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Texas and Louisiana
coasts through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts
are possible, potentially resulting in areas of life-threatening
flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized
metropolitan areas. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is
also expected.
2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to Sabine Pass.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.
3. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a
strong tropical storm by this evening, and could be near hurricane
intensity at landfall. Tropical storm conditions are expected
along portions of the middle Texas coast beginning this afternoon,
with hurricane conditions possible from Port Aransas to San Luis
Pass by late afternoon through tonight.
4. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coast of south Texas into the afternoon.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/1500Z 26.4N 96.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 27.5N 96.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 29.1N 96.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/0000Z 30.2N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 15/1200Z 31.0N 94.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 16/0000Z 31.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/1200Z 32.0N 91.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED
Pass,. And as expected the center looks to be reforming to the north.
Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021
Doppler radar data from Brownsville and Corpus Christi, Texas, along
with reconnaissance aircraft flight-level wind data, indicate that
Nicholas' inner-core structure has undergone some radical changes
since the previous advisory. The earlier near-eyewall pattern
dissipated a few hours ago, and has been replaced with what appears
to be an ongoing reformation of a new center abut 90 nmi
north-northeast of the old center. The aircraft recently found a
pressure of 1000 to 1002 mb with the dissipating original center,
while Doppler radar velocity data show a pronounced mid- to
upper-level circulation forming farther north as previously
mentioned. The Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is going
to be concentrating its reconnoiter mission in Nicholas'
northeastern quadrant to see if reformation of the low-level center
is occurring beneath the mid-level circulation noted in radar data.
The initial wind speed remains 50 kt based on recent aircraft 850-mb
flight-level winds of 59 kt, which equates to about 47 kt equivalent
surface winds.
The initial motion is an uncertain 005/10 kt due to the erosion and
ongoing reformation of the center. Despite the recent inner-core
erosion, the latest NHC model guidance remains in fairly good
agreement on Nicholas moving northward through a weakness in the
subtropical ridge. The GFS model has been performing exceptionally
well with predicting the recent erosion and more northward
reformation of the Nicholas' center. The new NHC track forecast is
similar to but slightly east or right of the previous advisory
track, and lies along the eastern edge of the track consensus model
envelope, which is to the left of the GFS track prediction.
Although the inner-core convective pattern has been disrupted,
recent trends in the radar data suggest that a new center should
reform farther northeast into the convective cloud shield. The
latest GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS shear analyses indicate that
westerly shear of near 20 kt is allegedly affecting Nicholas.
However, water vapor satellite imagery suggests that the upper-level
shear vector is actually from a south-southwesterly direction, which
is more along than across the cyclone's forward motion, thus
reducing the magnitude and negative effects of the vertical wind
shear. Therefore, strengthening is still expected until landfall
as Nicholas continues to move over slightly warmer Gulf waters. It
is possible that Nicholas could become a hurricane just before
landfall, and that's the reason for the northeastward extension of
the hurricane watch area. Nicholas should rapidly weaken after
landfall due to increased frictional effects, strong southwesterly
shear, and entrainment of mid-level dry air, resulting in
degeneration into a tropical depression by late Tuesday and a
remnant low on Wednesday. Otherwise, no significant changes were
made to the previous advisory intensity forecast.
Key Messages:
1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Texas and Louisiana
coasts through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts
are possible, potentially resulting in areas of life-threatening
flash and urban flooding, especially in highly urbanized
metropolitan areas. Minor to isolated moderate river flooding is
also expected.
2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to Sabine Pass.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by
local officials.
3. Nicholas is forecast to approach the middle Texas coast as a
strong tropical storm by this evening, and could be near hurricane
intensity at landfall. Tropical storm conditions are expected
along portions of the middle Texas coast beginning this afternoon,
with hurricane conditions possible from Port Aransas to San Luis
Pass by late afternoon through tonight.
4. Tropical storm conditions are expected along portions of the
coast of south Texas into the afternoon.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/1500Z 26.4N 96.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 27.5N 96.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 29.1N 96.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 15/0000Z 30.2N 95.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 15/1200Z 31.0N 94.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 16/0000Z 31.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/1200Z 32.0N 91.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED
Last edited by don on Mon Sep 13, 2021 10:29 am, edited 3 times in total.
Not unexpected but Houston ISD closed tomorrow.
https://twitter.com/HoustonISD/status/1 ... 0471003141
https://twitter.com/HoustonISD/status/1 ... 0471003141
Heavy rain band closing in on Freeport in a few hours. Watch your 6 there!
Inland Tropical Storm Warning issued for Harris county now.
Nicholas Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 6
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX AL142021
1006 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021
Inland Harris-
1006 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Houston
- Kingwood
- Spring
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Tropical storm force winds remain
possible
- Peak Wind Forecast: 25-35 mph with gusts to 45 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
to 57 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect property should be
completed as soon as possible. Prepare for limited wind
damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 4-8 inches, with locally
higher amounts
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major
flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are
likely.
- PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially
if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches
may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and
barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some
weakened or washed out.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
few tornadoes.
- PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
hazardous weather arrives.
- ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
quickly.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- Hurricane Preparedness: Federal Emergency Management Agency
- http://ready.gov/hurricanes
- Local weather conditions and forecasts: NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
- http://www.weather.gov/hgx/
$$
Nicholas Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 6
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX AL142021
1006 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021
Inland Harris-
1006 AM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Houston
- Kingwood
- Spring
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Tropical storm force winds remain
possible
- Peak Wind Forecast: 25-35 mph with gusts to 45 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
to 57 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect property should be
completed as soon as possible. Prepare for limited wind
damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 4-8 inches, with locally
higher amounts
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for major
flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
major flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues are
likely.
- PREPARE: Strongly consider protective actions, especially
if you are in an area vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action will likely result in serious injury or loss of life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches
may become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and
barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
moving water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
become dangerous. Many road and bridge closures with some
weakened or washed out.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
few tornadoes.
- PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
hazardous weather arrives.
- ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
quickly.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- Hurricane Preparedness: Federal Emergency Management Agency
- http://ready.gov/hurricanes
- Local weather conditions and forecasts: NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
- http://www.weather.gov/hgx/
$$
-
Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
- Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
- Location: Freeport
- Contact:
Pretty steady wind here at Surfside..I'd say about 20 mph..beach is looking pretty angry at the moment...about 7 surfers out catching some waves
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Surfside will be under water in a few hours. Surprised they haven't already shut it down at 523 by now.
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Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
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- Location: Freeport
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Pretty decent waves...
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Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
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- Location: Freeport
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Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
- Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
- Location: Freeport
- Contact:
Just got a pretty damn good gust of wind...damn lol
Generally there is no sense in checking modeling this close to landfall but with how this storm has behaved and how the GFS has anticipated some of the reformations.
Here we go... 12z GFS tries on last reformation to the ne but doesn't quite pull it off. It does pull it further ne through landfall and closer to Sargent/Bay City and across Brazoria before heading up 288.
Here we go... 12z GFS tries on last reformation to the ne but doesn't quite pull it off. It does pull it further ne through landfall and closer to Sargent/Bay City and across Brazoria before heading up 288.
The eddies are confusing everyone.
It’s just a broad center that’s open to the SW side.
It’s just a broad center that’s open to the SW side.
Huge hard downpour in a lake jackson feeder just a bit ago.
You’re in a good spot to see some action. I’m kinda jealous lol I’d definitely just stay there and experience it. A strong tropical storm or weak cat 1 is a fun experience for a weather enthusiast.
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
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- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
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Jeff Lindner
@JeffLindner1
·
5m
High risk of flash flooding…reserved for the most serious threats…have been expanded slightly north to include SE Harris County and all of Brazoria, Galveston, and Chambers Counties #houwx #txwx
@HarrisCoPct2
@JeffLindner1
·
5m
High risk of flash flooding…reserved for the most serious threats…have been expanded slightly north to include SE Harris County and all of Brazoria, Galveston, and Chambers Counties #houwx #txwx
@HarrisCoPct2
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Very healthy band on its way.
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Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
- Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
- Location: Freeport
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When is he suppose to make landfall? Tonight right?