September 2021: Hurricane Nicholas
Starting to look like a “non event” down where I am. As in, we can handle this fairly easy. Can’t really tell if Nicholas is moving inland or bouncing off the coast on its way NE. Golden Triangle area may be getting the brunt of the rainfall when all said and done. Things could change but that’s what it looks like at the moment.
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prospects8903
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I’m in Orange looking like we may take a big hit from this onedavidiowx wrote: ↑Mon Sep 13, 2021 6:29 pm Starting to look like a “non event” down where I am. As in, we can handle this fairly easy. Can’t really tell if Nicholas is moving inland or bouncing off the coast on its way NE. Golden Triangle area may be getting the brunt of the rainfall when all said and done. Things could change but that’s what it looks like at the moment.
Getting pretty dark and windy in CLL as an outer band moves in.
Rain has begun. That escalated quickly!
Rain has begun. That escalated quickly!
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Kingwood36
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Starting to get water on the roads here in freeport
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tireman4
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- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 132331
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
631 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021
.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...
As TS Nicholas inches closer to Southeast Texas, conditions will
continue to deteriorate. Lots of uncertainty remains in the
forecast as this system remains fairly disorganized. Expect MVFR
ceilings and visibility dropping to IFR with the heaviest rain
bands as they push through. Coastal and southern sites could see
gusts of 35-45kts, but this may increase if the TS increases in
strength before landfall. Prevailing RA and VCTS for most of the
TAF period, but it appears most activity will be towards the
northeast and out of our area by tomorrow afternoon.
KBL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 424 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021/...
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tomorrow Night]...
HIGHLIGHTS:
- Tropical Storm Nicholas continues to approach the SE Texas
Coast, and is expected to make landfall near Matagorda Bay this
evening as a strong tropical storm with sustained winds just
below hurricane force.
- Heavy rainfall associated with this system remains a significant
concern along the coast. Residents along the I-10 corridor and
southward should be prepared for the possibility of flash
flooding. Additional rainfall totals of 6-12" with isolated
higher totals are possible.
- Strong wind gusts will also accompany the storm as it approaches
the coast. Some gusts may approach hurricane force. Most
locations along the coast will experience wind gusts in excess
of 50 mph.
- Storm surge of 2-4 feet will result in coastal flooding,
particularly in normally prone areas.
Our primary forecast concern continues to be the approach of
Tropical Storm Nicholas this evening. The latest advisory from the
National Hurricane Center indicates a slight eastward shift in the
track of the system, with landfall in the vicinity of Matagorda
Bay expected to occur this evening. The primary threat we
anticipate overnight is the possibility of a significant and
widespread flash flood event as rainbands associated with the
storm push onshore. The greatest risk for flash flooding remains
concentrated around and south of the I-10 corridor. Rainfall rates
at times may approach 2-3" per hour in the heaviest bands of rain
which should occur overnight and into tomorrow morning. This is
likely to result in the flooding of streets, rivers, creeks, and
bayous. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for parts of the
area through tomorrow afternoon.
In addition to the primary threat of heavy rainfall, strong wind
gusts (perhaps approaching hurricane force) will accompany the
landfalling system. Most locations along the coast are likely to
experience wind gusts of 50 mph or higher. This may result in tree
and minor structural damage. Additionally, storm surge of 2-4 feet
is expected to result in coastal flooding. Given the approach of
the storm during high tide, both runoff and water recession may be
inhibited as this occurs. Finally, there`s a chance that isolated
tornadoes may occur within any strong thunderstorms embedded
within Nicholas`s rain bands, though this threat is marginal.
Conditions look to begin to improve tomorrow afternoon and
evening as the system pushes further northeastward.
It is imperative that flood safety precautions be taken over the
next 24 hours, particularly in vehicles. The majority of flood
related deaths in the U.S. occur while the victim is driving. With
significant street flooding a possibility along and south of the
I-10 corridor tomorrow, any travel plans in these areas should be
re-assessed. Never drive into a flooded roadway or around a
barricade. You are not only putting your own life at risk, but
also are risking the safety of those dispatched to rescue you.
Turn around, don`t drown!
Cady
.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...
The initial part of the long term package will still hinge a great
deal on the eventual E/NE movement of Tropical Storm Nicholas. And
so based on the latest NHC tracks, Nicholas is expected to be just
to the east of the CWA by Weds morning...but rain chances will re-
main somewhat elevated across the area (especially for the eastern
counties). Lingering tropical moisture along with daytime heating/
unstable conditions should support scattered activity through most
of Weds. Winds will be relaxing through the afternoon, but temper-
atures could vary widely from west to east across the FA given the
possibility of persistent clouds/higher rain chances to the E.
As the remnants of Nicholas track well into LA (and points further
east) by Weds night/early Thurs, rain chances will continue to de-
crease during this time period as slightly drier air moves in from
the NE. However, we could still see some isolated activity by Thur
afternoon given daytime heating, lingering moisture/instability.
Onshore winds are set to return to the CWA late Thurs afternoon or
early evening. And then with this pattern in place through the end
of the week, low-level moisture piling back up across SE TX should
lead to increased (mainly diurnal) POPs from Fri on into the week-
end. With the highest PWs (1.8-2.3 inches) over the coastal waters
initially then slowly inland, the best rain chances will also fol-
low this pattern: greatest chances south of the I-10 corridor Fri/
Sat then increasing further inland to cover the entire CWA for Sun
and Mon. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 71 80 70 86 71 / 70 60 40 40 20
Houston (IAH) 71 80 71 86 73 / 90 80 50 40 20
Galveston (GLS) 77 85 76 87 78 / 90 70 50 50 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Hurricane Watch for the following zones: Brazoria
Islands...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda
Islands.
Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Bolivar
Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Fort Bend...Galveston
Island...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland
Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda
Islands...Northern Liberty...Southern Liberty...Wharton.
Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for the following
zones: Austin...Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston
Island...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland
Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda
Islands...Northern Liberty...Southern
Liberty...Waller...Wharton.
Tropical Storm Watch for the following zones:
Austin...Colorado...Waller.
GM...Hurricane Watch for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM.
Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Coastal waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20
NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20
NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 132331
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
631 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021
.AVIATION [00Z TAF Issuance]...
As TS Nicholas inches closer to Southeast Texas, conditions will
continue to deteriorate. Lots of uncertainty remains in the
forecast as this system remains fairly disorganized. Expect MVFR
ceilings and visibility dropping to IFR with the heaviest rain
bands as they push through. Coastal and southern sites could see
gusts of 35-45kts, but this may increase if the TS increases in
strength before landfall. Prevailing RA and VCTS for most of the
TAF period, but it appears most activity will be towards the
northeast and out of our area by tomorrow afternoon.
KBL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 424 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021/...
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Tomorrow Night]...
HIGHLIGHTS:
- Tropical Storm Nicholas continues to approach the SE Texas
Coast, and is expected to make landfall near Matagorda Bay this
evening as a strong tropical storm with sustained winds just
below hurricane force.
- Heavy rainfall associated with this system remains a significant
concern along the coast. Residents along the I-10 corridor and
southward should be prepared for the possibility of flash
flooding. Additional rainfall totals of 6-12" with isolated
higher totals are possible.
- Strong wind gusts will also accompany the storm as it approaches
the coast. Some gusts may approach hurricane force. Most
locations along the coast will experience wind gusts in excess
of 50 mph.
- Storm surge of 2-4 feet will result in coastal flooding,
particularly in normally prone areas.
Our primary forecast concern continues to be the approach of
Tropical Storm Nicholas this evening. The latest advisory from the
National Hurricane Center indicates a slight eastward shift in the
track of the system, with landfall in the vicinity of Matagorda
Bay expected to occur this evening. The primary threat we
anticipate overnight is the possibility of a significant and
widespread flash flood event as rainbands associated with the
storm push onshore. The greatest risk for flash flooding remains
concentrated around and south of the I-10 corridor. Rainfall rates
at times may approach 2-3" per hour in the heaviest bands of rain
which should occur overnight and into tomorrow morning. This is
likely to result in the flooding of streets, rivers, creeks, and
bayous. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for parts of the
area through tomorrow afternoon.
In addition to the primary threat of heavy rainfall, strong wind
gusts (perhaps approaching hurricane force) will accompany the
landfalling system. Most locations along the coast are likely to
experience wind gusts of 50 mph or higher. This may result in tree
and minor structural damage. Additionally, storm surge of 2-4 feet
is expected to result in coastal flooding. Given the approach of
the storm during high tide, both runoff and water recession may be
inhibited as this occurs. Finally, there`s a chance that isolated
tornadoes may occur within any strong thunderstorms embedded
within Nicholas`s rain bands, though this threat is marginal.
Conditions look to begin to improve tomorrow afternoon and
evening as the system pushes further northeastward.
It is imperative that flood safety precautions be taken over the
next 24 hours, particularly in vehicles. The majority of flood
related deaths in the U.S. occur while the victim is driving. With
significant street flooding a possibility along and south of the
I-10 corridor tomorrow, any travel plans in these areas should be
re-assessed. Never drive into a flooded roadway or around a
barricade. You are not only putting your own life at risk, but
also are risking the safety of those dispatched to rescue you.
Turn around, don`t drown!
Cady
.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Monday]...
The initial part of the long term package will still hinge a great
deal on the eventual E/NE movement of Tropical Storm Nicholas. And
so based on the latest NHC tracks, Nicholas is expected to be just
to the east of the CWA by Weds morning...but rain chances will re-
main somewhat elevated across the area (especially for the eastern
counties). Lingering tropical moisture along with daytime heating/
unstable conditions should support scattered activity through most
of Weds. Winds will be relaxing through the afternoon, but temper-
atures could vary widely from west to east across the FA given the
possibility of persistent clouds/higher rain chances to the E.
As the remnants of Nicholas track well into LA (and points further
east) by Weds night/early Thurs, rain chances will continue to de-
crease during this time period as slightly drier air moves in from
the NE. However, we could still see some isolated activity by Thur
afternoon given daytime heating, lingering moisture/instability.
Onshore winds are set to return to the CWA late Thurs afternoon or
early evening. And then with this pattern in place through the end
of the week, low-level moisture piling back up across SE TX should
lead to increased (mainly diurnal) POPs from Fri on into the week-
end. With the highest PWs (1.8-2.3 inches) over the coastal waters
initially then slowly inland, the best rain chances will also fol-
low this pattern: greatest chances south of the I-10 corridor Fri/
Sat then increasing further inland to cover the entire CWA for Sun
and Mon. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 71 80 70 86 71 / 70 60 40 40 20
Houston (IAH) 71 80 71 86 73 / 90 80 50 40 20
Galveston (GLS) 77 85 76 87 78 / 90 70 50 50 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Hurricane Watch for the following zones: Brazoria
Islands...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda
Islands.
Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Bolivar
Peninsula...Brazoria Islands...Chambers...Coastal
Brazoria...Coastal Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal
Jackson...Coastal Matagorda...Fort Bend...Galveston
Island...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland
Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda
Islands...Northern Liberty...Southern Liberty...Wharton.
Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for the following
zones: Austin...Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston
Island...Inland Brazoria...Inland Galveston...Inland
Harris...Inland Jackson...Inland Matagorda...Matagorda
Islands...Northern Liberty...Southern
Liberty...Waller...Wharton.
Tropical Storm Watch for the following zones:
Austin...Colorado...Waller.
GM...Hurricane Watch for the following zones: Coastal waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Matagorda
Bay...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX
from 20 to 60 NM.
Tropical Storm Warning for the following zones: Coastal waters
from Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20
NM...Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out 20
NM...Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from
High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.
&&
$$
-
Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
- Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
- Location: Freeport
- Contact:
Seen Micheal waiting on nick..lol
- Attachments
-
-
That’s pretty funny I must say
That’s gold.
will there be a 7pm nhc update?
Code: Select all
000
WTNT34 KNHC 132358
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicholas Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021
700 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021
...NICHOLAS BRINGING HEAVY RAINS, STRONG WINDS, AND STORM SURGES TO
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND UPPER TEXAS COASTS...
SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 96.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSW OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Sabine Pass
* Galveston Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas to San Luis Pass Texas
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to Sabine Pass
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Rutherford Beach Louisiana
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of
areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
Interests elsewhere in southwestern Louisiana should monitor the
progress of Nicholas.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicholas was
located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 96.2 West. Nicholas is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by
a turn toward the northeast by late Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Nicholas is expected to make landfall along
the central Texas coast later tonight.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during
the next few hours, and Nicholas could become a hurricane when it
reaches the Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated on Tuesday and
Wednesday while Nicholas moves over land.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A WeatherFlow station at Matagorda Bay recently
reported a sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) with a gust to 71 mph
(115 km/h).
The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Nicholas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?key_messages
RAINFALL: Nicholas is expected to produce storm total rainfall of
6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 18 inches, across
portions of the middle and upper Texas coastal areas through
Wednesday. Life-threatening flash flooding impacts, especially in
highly urbanized metropolitan areas, are possible across portions of
the upper Texas Gulf Coast and far southwestern Louisiana.
Across interior southeast Texas into southern-central Louisiana and
southern Mississippi, rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with locally
higher amounts near 10 inches are expected through Thursday. This
rainfall may produce areas of considerable flash and urban
flooding.
The potential for minor to isolated moderate river flooding exists
across the entire region, along with isolated major river flooding,
especially in the smaller river basins and urban areas.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Port O'Connor, TX to San Luis Pass including Matagorda Bay...3-5 ft
San Luis Pass to Rutherford Beach, LA including Galveston
Bay...2-4 ft
Port Aransas, TX to Port O'Connor, TX...2-4 ft
Aransas Bay and San Antonio Bay...2-4 ft
Rutherford Beach, LA to Intracoastal City, LA...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft
Baffin Bay to Port Aransas, TX...1-3 ft
Corpus Christi Bay...1-3 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay...1-2 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area across the central and upper Texas coasts through tonight,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area as early as this
evening.
TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes will be possible through tonight,
mainly along the upper Texas coast.
SURF: Swells generated by Nicholas will continue affecting portions
of the northwest Gulf coast through Tuesday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster PaschRecon is out there and finding darn near a hurricane.. as crazy as that sounds. Doubt winds catch up, but who knows. As long as it is still in the water, anything in is possible.
It won’t mean a whole lot in the grand scheme of things for those near the center as far as rain and flooding unless it just stalls for whatever reason. Still think the heaviest of rains will be east of many as the storm moves on land and training bands set up.
Just my two cents of course.
It won’t mean a whole lot in the grand scheme of things for those near the center as far as rain and flooding unless it just stalls for whatever reason. Still think the heaviest of rains will be east of many as the storm moves on land and training bands set up.
Just my two cents of course.
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Texaspirate11
- Posts: 1278
- Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
- Contact:
Hes down to 988 mb
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
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Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
- Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
- Location: Freeport
- Contact:
Damn, he could actually make it a cat 1...
What was he getting arrested for? Walking on the beach in a Mime outfit?
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Kingwood36
- Posts: 1592
- Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
- Location: Freeport
- Contact:
...it was probably plastic but that's big no no especially in the world we live in nowYep and my call of Matagorda (and I meant the town, not the whole bay) will be pretty close. I need to start getting paid for this.
J/K.
On a fishing board I'm a member of, I said low Cat 1 at Sargent. I said Sargent only because we have a house in Port Alto and didn't want to jinx it.
Speaking of calls, Ida hit within 5 miles of my landfall forecast called the Thur night before and at the intensity I expected (I'm expecting a post-analysis upgrade to 155mph) but one thing I have to admit I totally missed was the surge forecast. I expected La Place to flood, no surprise there, but I thought the levees around New Orleans were going to breach at some point. The path took a slight jog west which helped but I have to say hats off the the Corps of Engineers for passing this test. The city fared much much better than I expected. I am so thankful because I love that city.
Last edited by jasons2k on Mon Sep 13, 2021 7:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Just 4 measly mph away. A valiant effort.