January 2022

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
Texaspirate11
Posts: 1278
Joined: Tue Dec 31, 2013 12:24 am
Contact:

I'm so enjoying this boring winter
and I hope those in the Carolinas can keep warm
being without power just sucks.
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
Disability Integration Consultant
User avatar
don
Posts: 2951
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Wichita Falls
Contact:

Kinda of interesting that the 12Z Euro now also gets close to showing a winter storm across the southern half of the state late next week. It looks similar to the GFS.While i don't expect any major arctic air(the upper levels look situated for the brunt of the arctic air to stay well to the northeast of us.) Saying that we may get enough of a glancing blow of arctic air for a system to tap into. As the subtropical jet looks to becomes active at the same time that some arctic air is moving into the state.Setting the stage for a classic overrunning setup,something to keep an eye on. ;)
User avatar
sambucol
Posts: 1103
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 5:43 pm
Location: Mont Belvieu
Contact:

I read that subtropical jet may pull the very cold air down here to SETX. The pro met was concerned about that happening.
Stratton20
Posts: 4942
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

18z GFS at hour 180, will be interesting to see what the overnight models show, some support for this from the GEFS members
Attachments
6261364D-971C-478E-B8A8-17F70FD125CF.png
Kingwood36
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

60/40 says it will be gone with overnight runs
cperk
Posts: 817
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2012 12:09 pm
Location: Richmond
Contact:

Kingwood36 wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:57 pm 60/40 says it will be gone with overnight runs
The 6Z GFS has shifted the winter weather to the east very close to the Houston area in the 174hr time frame.
Cpv17
Posts: 6019
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

cperk wrote: Fri Jan 14, 2022 7:22 am
Kingwood36 wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:57 pm 60/40 says it will be gone with overnight runs
The 6Z GFS has shifted the winter weather to the east very close to the Houston area in the 174hr time frame.
I will add to that the 6z GFS is showing a 1052mb high coming into NE Montana which is slightly stronger than what it was showing yesterday. It’s definitely looking chilly around here for next Friday regardless of precipitation.
Kingwood36
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

Cpv17 wrote: Fri Jan 14, 2022 8:03 am
cperk wrote: Fri Jan 14, 2022 7:22 am
Kingwood36 wrote: Thu Jan 13, 2022 5:57 pm 60/40 says it will be gone with overnight runs
The 6Z GFS has shifted the winter weather to the east very close to the Houston area in the 174hr time frame.
I will add to that the 6z GFS is showing a 1052mb high coming into NE Montana which is slightly stronger than what it was showing yesterday. It’s definitely looking chilly around here for next Friday regardless of precipitation.
I noticed that 6z..can't argue now that the trends are looking favorable for now atleast
Kingwood36
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

Let's all wait for 57 to post on 2k and pull the football again😂
Cpv17
Posts: 6019
Joined: Fri Aug 31, 2018 1:58 pm
Location: El Campo/Wharton
Contact:

Here’s an example of how bad the GFS is with handling temps. This is the latest 6z GFS for 6am this morning. It’s showing a temp of 52°F. When I woke up at 7am this morning it was 40°F.

Image
cperk
Posts: 817
Joined: Sun Aug 19, 2012 12:09 pm
Location: Richmond
Contact:

This system for days has been inching west per models while i realize it's only one run so lets see if we have a trend over the next few days.
Kingwood36
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

Well he said he isn't liking it so that means he's starting to buy in
Stratton20
Posts: 4942
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

06z GFS
Attachments
7458D6A3-78CA-4F20-B0E9-BC2718CBB3F0.png
Kingwood36
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

Only good thing about living down here is when one of those gulf lows form it gives a chance for precip
User avatar
don
Posts: 2951
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Wichita Falls
Contact:

Looking at the soundings from the GFS over the area for right now at least its showing a sleet setup.Even the areas where it shows just rain, would actually be sleet based on the atmospheric soundings.I would like to see the other models get onboard before i really start to buy it though.But if you want a significant winter storm in south/southeast Texas what the GFS shows is definitely one of the best setups you'll get around here for wintry precip.
Stratton20
Posts: 4942
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

Don Fwiw almost half of the 06z GEFS ensemble members are showing this as well
User avatar
don
Posts: 2951
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Wichita Falls
Contact:

12Z GFS shows a lot of moisture to work with,with temps in the mid to low 30s across most of the area with plenty of precipitation.
Kingwood36
Posts: 1592
Joined: Sat Dec 29, 2018 10:29 am
Location: Freeport
Contact:

don wrote: Fri Jan 14, 2022 10:49 am 12Z GFS shows a lot of moisture to work with,with temps in the mid to low 30s across most of the area with plenty of precipitation.
Air isn't as cold tho and a warm nose is detected..so just a cold rain for this run..things can change tho
Stratton20
Posts: 4942
Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
Location: College Station, Texas
Contact:

12z GFS, still waiting for the CMC to come out, we will see if it gets on board as well
Attachments
916B2105-711F-4572-B007-025B76E95B5A.png
User avatar
don
Posts: 2951
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 3:33 pm
Location: Wichita Falls
Contact:

Kingwood36 wrote: Fri Jan 14, 2022 10:58 am
don wrote: Fri Jan 14, 2022 10:49 am 12Z GFS shows a lot of moisture to work with,with temps in the mid to low 30s across most of the area with plenty of precipitation.
Air isn't as cold tho..so just a cold rain for this run..things can change tho
Remember in this range its important to not look too much in to the details such as precip type and temperatures. The overall setup is whats important. Variability in models runs especially in this range is normal and expected.
Post Reply
  • Information
  • Who is online

    Users browsing this forum: Bing [Bot] and 47 guests