That definitely looks pretty good.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 12, 2022 1:32 pm This is a nice setup for cold air on the 12z Euro, blocking sets up over alaska and near Greenland, FWIW the 12z CMC is showing a similar setup as the euro
Winter Long Range Discussion
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CPV17 yep! And the fact that the euro isnt the only model showing this setup is a good thing or something to watch
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Always go with the ensemble, especially this far out.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 15, 2022 8:41 am The difference between the 06z GFS and 06z GEFS for next friday is crazy, dont know why their is such a big difference
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Cpv17 I mean technically 6 days isnt that far out, but its weird to see the operational run that much “warmer” but fwiw 7 of the 20 GEFS members still show a potential wintery precip setup, also 00z Euro run is out
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This may not happen since it's in the long range (18z GFS) but YIKES!
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Iceresistance saw that, storms develops over texas at hour 294, way far out but this may be a signal that the pattern change that is about to occur could be really significant
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I remembered seeing models that were similar to this last year, but it was pushed back to February, could this also repeat that? Only time will tell if that's true . . .Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 15, 2022 5:49 pm Iceresistance saw that, storms develops over texas at hour 294, way far out but this may be a signal that the pattern change that is about to occur could be really significant
EDIT: I do want to mention that the PNA is expected to become Neutral at the end of this month.
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Iceresistance I would take this pattern with potential mutliple chances for wintry weather, but id definitely not want a repeat of what happened last february, that was brutal
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I don't either, but the 12z Canadian went crazy cold, down to near Zero for Central & Northern Texas, & Below zero for Southern & Central Oklahoma.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Jan 15, 2022 6:02 pm Iceresistance I would take this pattern with potential mutliple chances for wintry weather, but id definitely not want a repeat of what happened last february, that was brutal
It may happen again, we're overdue for back-to-back February Cold Waves.
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Iceresistance Its possible, and to think just a few days ago the models werent showing anything interesting man how that quickly changed
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12z Canadian Long range has very cold temperatures, it's unlikely though since it has a cold bias, especially after cold fronts.
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With the MJO becoming inactive, it's gotten harder for very cold weather to come here now once again, but if it reemerges at the right timing & if it gets really strong, something really big may be coming in February.
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I’m really intrigued about the last part of this month into the beginning of February. I’m a bit bullish on it right now. I know it’s not wise to be a bullish on something over a week out but it definitely has my interest.
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Yeah.. and that could be just the beginning of a possible pattern change. There’s a chance it could be turning quite cold after that with more winter weather chances.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 19, 2022 6:35 pm CPV17 agreed and this is also something interesting and its inside of 10 days, GEFS sniffing out some more wintry mischief next week?
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CPV17 man that would be amazing! Fingers crossed!
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