January 2022

[Cpv17]

The NAM is weird. It actually has us colder in the afternoon tomorrow and then the temps rise by a few degrees after the sun goes down.

[Kingwood36]

Here we go..mainly south of I-10

Special Weather StatementSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED National Weather Service HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 547 AM CST Thu Jan 20 2022 TXZ197-210>214-226-227-235>238-313-335>338-436>439-211600- Washington-Colorado-Austin-Waller-Inland Harris-Chambers-Wharton- Fort Bend-Inland Jackson-Inland Matagorda-Inland Brazoria- Inland Galveston-Coastal Harris-Coastal Jackson-Coastal Matagorda- Coastal Brazoria-Coastal Galveston-Matagorda Islands- Brazoria Islands-Galveston Island-Bolivar Peninsula- Including the cities of Brenham, Columbus, Eagle Lake, Weimar, Sealy, Bellville, Hempstead, Prairie View, Brookshire, Waller, Houston, Winnie, Mont Belvieu, Anahuac, Stowell, Old River-Winfree, El Campo, Wharton, Missouri City, Mission Bend, Sugar Land, Rosenberg, First Colony, Pecan Grove, Edna, Ganado, Bay City, Pearland, Alvin, Angleton, League City, Friendswood, Pasadena, Baytown, Palacios, Lake Jackson, Freeport, Clute, Texas City, Dickinson, La Marque, Surfside Beach, and Galveston 547 AM CST Thu Jan 20 2022 ...

Risk of Wintry Precipitation Tonight Through Friday Morning mainly south of Interstate 10... Steadily falling temperatures can be expected across much of Southeast Texas today. Overnight tonight and on into early Friday morning, readings are expected to approach freezing for parts of the area. Any lingering rain areas will have the potential to interact with the near freezing temperatures and transition into a wintry mix of freezing rain and sleet. The main areas of concern are mainly south of Interstate 10, especially the closer you get to the Edna-Bay City-Matagorda Bay area. Monitor road conditions closely tonight through early tomorrow morning.

[Stratton20]

FWIW the 06z NAM 12k does try to bring frozen precip further north into SE Texas

[Kingwood36]

Update from Jeff

Slight potential of a mixture of rain, sleet, freezing rain tonight for areas mainly south of I-10.

Strong cold front has moved off the coast overnight with temperatures now in the 30’s and 40’s over the area with strong north winds of 20-30mph. Surface freezing line extends from Kerrville to Georgetown to north of Caldwell at 600am and will continue to move southward this morning with the most southward push to the west of SE TX across the I-35 corridor and into SC TX and the Rio Grande plains. Wind chills have fallen into the 20’s and 30’s over much of the region and with strong winds will remain at those levels through the day today.

Shortwave to the west is already generating some precipitation along the Rio Grande and the lift associated with this feature will spread eastward and across SC and SE TX today and tonight. Surface temperatures will cool today with most locations falling into the 30’s by mid to late afternoon. Light rain will develop from the WSW to the ENE across the area by late morning into the early afternoon hours and then continue into tonight. Moisture and lift will be greatest around Matagorda Bay and to the south and west and moisture becomes much more limited over SE TX with the highest levels along and south of I-10.

As the colder air mass continues to filter in tonight the freezing line will progress southward and likely reach I-10/US 59 areas be 300-600am Friday morning. Much of the precipitation tonight will fall south of the freezing line and into the above freezing air (33-37). While sounding profiles become increasingly supportive of a rain/sleet mix or transition to sleet, warm surface temperatures and ground temperatures will likely result in melting of anything frozen that falls. There could be a brief window where the freezing line overlaps with the departing precipitation early Friday morning where a change to freezing rain would be possible, but even where this does happen we are only looking at 31-32 degrees and the departing precipitation looks very light.

Impacts:
With the light precipitation expected any significant impacts look minimal. The cold air and the moisture just are not lining up correctly over SE TX (maybe Matagorda Bay area) and certainly points SW of that are covered in the Winter Storm Warning area. Warm ground temperatures likely in the upper 30’s to low 40’s will help to mitigate any accumulations. Elevated objects (trees, powerlines, vehicles, bridges) could see some very minor ice accumulations south of I-10. Can’t rule out an icy patch on a bridge or overpass, but significant travel disruption is not likely.

Confidence:
Forecast confidence is moderate to high. A couple things to watch today will be the surface temperatures to make sure the freezing line is following the model guidance and also the development and arrival of the light precipitation and its general placement across the area and to see how well that lines up with the forecast guidance output.

Areawide freeze is likely on Saturday morning (27-32) for most areas, but conditions will be dry.

Another storm system will approach the region late Sunday into Monday with rain and showers likely, but temperatures should be warm enough to keep this all liquid.

[Cpv17]

Woke up to 37° with a wind chill of 25°. Awesome!

[Iceresistance]

Woke up to 37° with a wind chill of 25°. Awesome!

15°F with a Wind Chill of -2°F

[Cromagnum]

Even though they are saying bulk of frozen precip is south of I10, my forecast only gets me down to 33 at the coldest. I just see this being cold and nasty.

[Texashawk]

Even though they are saying bulk of frozen precip is south of I10, my forecast only gets me down to 33 at the coldest. I just see this being cold and nasty.

Wet bulbing. Hopefully.

[Kingwood36]

Mine is 40% with a low of 33..then a 20% chance of the frozen stuff...will see if it actually happens or not

[jasons2k]

Woke up to 37° with a wind chill of 25°. Awesome!

How is that awesome? Are you standing outside in shorts and a T-shirt, relishing in it, letting the chill sink deep into the bones? Does that actually feel pleasant?

[Cpv17]

Woke up to 37° with a wind chill of 25°. Awesome!

How is that awesome? Are you standing outside in shorts and a T-shirt, relishing in it, letting the chill sink deep into the bones? Does that actually feel pleasant?

Because I’m an extreme weather enthusiast! I love experiencing it but I only like experiencing it around where I live for the most part. If it were up to me I’d want it to be 20°F with whiteout conditions.

[Stratton20]

There are a few 12z mesoscale models bringing wintry precip into the houston area

[walsean1]

For this winter system, other that it being cold, we can forget about seeing wintry type precip at least for this go around. I wanted to not go to work for a day but oh well. We need the cold air in place like last year and then the storm system. Also the ground is too warm for it to have any impact

[jasons2k]

Woke up to 37° with a wind chill of 25°. Awesome!

How is that awesome? Are you standing outside in shorts and a T-shirt, relishing in it, letting the chill sink deep into the bones? Does that actually feel pleasant?

Because I’m an extreme weather enthusiast! I love experiencing it but I only like experiencing it around where I live for the most part. If it were up to me I’d want it to be 20°F with whiteout conditions.

I'm just messing with you. I think most of us are extreme weather enthusiasts. This isn't extreme - it's just a typical cold, gray, miserable, January day.

Now if it were really 20° with whiteout conditions - that would be something exciting! Maybe there will be some excitement overnight

And yes when it gets back into the 70's - I will be outside in my shorts and T-shirt, relishing it, soaking it in, and welcoming spring back to Texas.

[Stratton20]

walsean1 their are always surprises with every system that brings a chance of wintry precip, it may not stop accumulate but dont be surprised to see a few sleet pellets or a snowflake in the houston area

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 201141
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
541 AM CST Thu Jan 20 2022

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Gusty northerly winds behind the latest frontal passage will
continue throughout today. An upper level weakness will approach
from the west and invigorate coastal showers this afternoon that
will push inland throughout afternoon and evening. These showers
should stay south of KCXO. Overnight as temperatures cool, these
showers could produce a wintry mix, but exact timing and duration
is too hard to pinpoint at the moment. The best hours for wintry
mix appear to be from 10-16Z Friday and south of KCXO. Regarding
ceilings, MVFR ceilings will prevail for most of this morning and
gradually lift to VFR this afternoon around 20-22Z. Ceilings
should stay VFR except along the coast where MVFR prevails through
the entire TAF period along with lingering showers.

Lenninger

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 402 AM CST Thu Jan 20 2022/...

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Friday Night]...

With the cold front continuing to push offshore, northerly winds and
CAA are driving temperatures down steadily during the overnight
hours. By sunrise this morning, temps will be in the mid 30s for our
northeastern counties, the low 40s along the I-45 corridor, and the
upper 40s along the coast and for our eastern counties. Temperatures
will only climb a few degrees more throughout the day as thick cloud
cover overhead and CAA will keep temperatures cold. A weak mid level
shortwave approaching from the west will reinvigorate showers along
the coast today and majority of these showers will linger south of
the I-10 corridor overnight. As surface temperatures continue to
fall throughout the night, rain showers will begin to transition
into more of a wintry mix. Best chances for wintry precip appear to
be south of I-10 with an onset a few hours before sunrise and
remaining through mid-morning. Most forecast soundings still show a
warm nose above freezing from approximately 900 to 700mb and well
saturated soundings aloft. With a shallow layer near the surface at
or below freezing, sleet appears to be the favorable type of frozen
precip but southwestern coastal areas could also see some freezing
rain where the re-freezing layer looks to be more shallow. Little to
no accumulations of frozen precip are expected as the ground and
roadways should stay above freezing. By mid-morning Friday,
temperatures will begin to climb and dry air filtering in from the
north will push any lingering showers offshore.

By Friday, clouds will begin to clear out from the north with this
incoming dry air and Southeast Texas will be mostly cloud free by
late Friday evening. Temperatures will peak in the mid 40s, but
overnight lows will be a few degrees colder than Thursday and reach
the mid to upper 20s. Wind chills will reach the teens north of the
Houston Metro area and in the 20s everywhere else.

Lenninger


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Thursday]...

After the very cold and clear start to the day on Saturday, look for
slowly/gradually increasing clouds for the remainder of the weekend.
High temperatures in the 50s can be expected for both Saturday and
Sunday, while Sunday morning`s lows are expected to range from the
upper 20s to around 30 northern areas to the mid to upper 30s central
and south to the low 40s at the coast. Low rain chances return to the
Matagorda Bay area on Sunday, then spread northward across the rest
of the area heading into Sunday and increase significantly for the
start of the week as a coastal trof/low develops and moves across the
area. At this time, it looks like higher rainfall totals with this
system (1 inch or more) will be closer to the coast and offshore while
lower amounts (closer to a 1/2 to 1 inch range) can be expected the
further north and inland you go. Of course, these possible totals
could dramatically change depending on where the coastal low forms
and how fast it moves across our forecast area. This system and its
rains look to move east of the area by late Monday night or early
Tuesday morning, and a dry Tuesday through Thursday looks to be in
store for the area as surface high pressure building in from the north
takes control. For Monday through Thursday, we have highs mostly in
the 50s/60s and lows mainly in the 30s/40s.

42


.MARINE...

In the wake of the strong cold front, gale warnings are in effect west
of Freeport and small craft advisories further to the east. Mariners
can expect low water conditions and enhanced risks of groundings around
low tide cycles in the bays today. Moderate to strong north to northeast
winds and elevated seas can be expected to continue for the remainder
of the week and on through the weekend. Periods of unsettled weather
can be expected Monday into early Tuesday as a coastal low develops
in advance of the next storm system. At this time, late Sunday night
through late Monday night looks to be the most active period with
increasing winds and seas and periods of showers and thunderstorms.

42


.CLIMATE...

With yesterday`s 1.95 inches of rain for the City of Houston (which
was only 0.05 inches away from their January 19th record of 2.00 inches
set in 1898), the rainfall total for the month now stands at 8.26 inches
which makes this the 2nd wettest January 1-19 period on record
(1st place is 9.23 inches in 1991). The 8.26 inches currently ranks
as the 7th wettest January on record (1st place is 13.11 inches in
1891). Records date back to 1889.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 39 29 47 26 53 / 10 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 44 33 45 29 53 / 40 30 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 50 37 46 38 53 / 60 50 20 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for the following
zones: Bolivar Peninsula...Brazoria
Islands...Chambers...Coastal Brazoria...Coastal
Galveston...Coastal Harris...Coastal Jackson...Coastal
Matagorda...Galveston Island...Matagorda Islands.

GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 AM CST Friday for the
following zones: Matagorda Bay.

Gale Warning until noon CST today for the following zones:
Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Friday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from High Island to Freeport TX out
20 NM...Galveston Bay...Waters from High Island to Freeport
TX from 20 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Friday
for the following zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to
Matagorda Ship Channel TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport
to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM.

Gale Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

[DoctorMu]

Woke up to 37° with a wind chill of 25°. Awesome!

How is that awesome? Are you standing outside in shorts and a T-shirt, relishing in it, letting the chill sink deep into the bones? Does that actually feel pleasant?

We have clothes that insulate. Cold weather doesn't bother me at all.

There are only so many clothes one can remove in summer.

No A/C. No sprinklers. It's all good!

[DoctorMu]

34°F here. Doubt we're getting out of the 30s as cold air overperforms again. Frozen stuff in the Hill Country heading this way. Gulf may take over the short wave, but we'll see. We could see a little sleet in CLL if the air isn't too dry.

[Iceresistance]

Woke up to 37° with a wind chill of 25°. Awesome!

How is that awesome? Are you standing outside in shorts and a T-shirt, relishing in it, letting the chill sink deep into the bones? Does that actually feel pleasant?

Because I’m an extreme weather enthusiast! I love experiencing it but I only like experiencing it around where I live for the most part. If it were up to me I’d want it to be 20°F with whiteout conditions.

I Like the cold too until it's too much, this Past February, I had Whiteout Conditions when it was only 5°F (As a High!)

[djmike]

We are running 2 degrees colder then what was forecasted for this hour in Beaumont AND NWS raised our percentage for frozen precipitation from 20% to now 30% for Beaumont and extended it to show Friday morning as well. Still nothing to write home about but have a feeling someone may get a bit of a surprise after all is said and done. Also as far as I can tell if anything falls it will be in the wee overnight hours while Im sleeping so im sure I will wake up to nothing if anything does fall.